WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM RECOGNITION?
15:57:06 – 03/11/2008
Over the past few months several notable events relating to the
recognition of earlier frozen conflicts have taken place. In
February Kosovo was recognized by already about fifty countries,
and in August Russia and Nicaragua recognized South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. The recognition was accompanied by forcible methods. In
Kosovo, diplomatic pressing, in South Ossetia the military method, and
in Abkhazia intimidation was used. However, these three processes have
something in common. If we set aside all the geopolitical factors and
view the process from the point of view of interests of people living
in disputable territories, we will notice that eventually the issues
were solved in favor of those people. The people of Kosovo desired
independence, they got it. The people of South Ossetia and Abkhazia
wanted legitimization of their relations with Russia and they got it.
And this is not accidental. Even though experts ignore the interests of
the public in the settlement of geopolitical issues, obviously those
interests are taken into account in drawing up projects. At least
because ignoring them may lead to new conflicts. For instance, imagine
the international community forcing the people of Kosovo remain part
of Serbia. That would cause a new war. Or imagine the Ossetia issue
is being solved in favor of Georgia. That would also cause a new war.
The same scenario will be implemented in Karabakh. It is too early to
speak about the methods but the principle of observing the interests of
the autochthonic people should be underlying. This interest should be
the cornerstone. Because otherwise there will be a war. And not just
militaristic statements that Baku has been feeding to the international
community for many years but a real war because people have to fight
as soon as their vital interests are threatened.
Currently, militaristic moods in Karabakh are intensifying because
people have felt real threat to their security. If so far this
threat was a hypothetical and far-fetched perspective, now after
the statement of the Armenian government about the necessity for
a rapid "settlement" of the conflict people feel the danger coming
closer. Now the people of Karabakh are preparing to go on protests
against settlements which violate the interests of people. These
protests are being organized by the civil society but it is not ruled
out that the top government representatives may join in. At least,
it is uttered in backstage talks.
The greatest danger is posed by the proposal to return the
territories surrounding the former Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous
region. For the first time in many years Karabakh turned back and
saw that the border is not too far, and the border of the former
Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region runs across densely populated
areas. People think that they will not benefit from the recognition of
Karabakh within the border of the former Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous
region. Moreover, they will lose their past, the present and future
of their children. Karabakh demands that the settlement is in the
interests of the people living in the disputable territory.