YEREVAN’S MULTIPLE VECTOR
by Sarkis Levonjan
WPS Agency
What the Papers Say (Russia)
October 3, 2008 Friday
Russia
WAR IN GEORGIA BECAME AN ADDITIONAL CATALYST FOR THE ARMENIAN-IRANIAN
RELATIONS; The war in Georgia reactivated the Armenian-Iranian
cooperation.
The Five Day War in Georgia has had its effect on absolutely all
countries of the region without exception. Disruption of communications
cost national economies dearly. Armenia found itself among the
countries the war hurt particularly bad. Existing in semi-blockade
because of the conflict with Azerbaijan, Armenia found itself cut
off from the rest of the world. Experts estimated harm to Armenian
economy at half a billion dollars.
The August events exposed fragility of Armenia’s links with the rest
of the world and forced on official Yerevan activization of a search
for additional transport arteries. Normalization of relations with
Azerbaijan is a process whose outcome cannot be predicted yet with
any degree of accuracy. Turkey is making but first and tentative steps
to establish contacts with Armenia. Lacking any other choice, Yerevan
intensified its relations with Tehran. Traditionally anti-Iranian, the
United States understands the fix Armenia has found itself in and does
not really object to advancement of the Armenian-Iranian relations,
dismissing them as being of little if any importance. Russia in its
turn observes what is happening with interest. It has far-reaching
designs for Armenia, its strategic ally, in the geopolitical project
of the North and the South in which even Tehran might be involved
one fine day.
Relations between Armenia and Iran were boosted by bilateral
summits. Presidents Robert Kocharjan and Mahmud Ahmadinejad met,
discussed matters of common interest (economic interest, first and
foremost), and ordered establishment of a special government commission
monitoring realization of several energy projects.
The Armenian-Iranian relations meanwhile began developing a purely
political component as well. Said Jalili, Secretary of the Supreme
National Security Council of Iran, met with his Armenian counterpart
Arthur Bagdasarjan and suggested consultations between national
security services. Bagdasarjan was even invited to visit Tehran,
an invitation that was gladly accepted. There is understanding in
both capitals that these countries need each other.
Official Tehran aspires to regional leadership and counts on
Armenian support. No wonder Iran energetically promotes itself as an
intermediary in the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, these days. The so far
hypothetical Tehran-Yerevan axis is viewed as a counterweight to the
already existing Baku-Ankara one.
By and large, however, economic contacts dominate the Armenian-Iranian
relations for the time being. The war in Georgia last month confirmed
validity of this assumption. Over 70% of the Armenian freight traffic
activity normally goes across the territory of Georgia. Damage to
Armenian economy when the Georgian Railroad stopped cold would have
been even more profound than the estimated $500 million were it not
for the highway connecting Armenia with Iran. Armenian Transportation
and Communications Minister Gurgen Sarkisjan said deliveries of fuel
and grain to Armenia had been organized with Iran’s help. The idea
to connect Armenian and Iranian railroad networks was suggested all
over again.
Russian Railroads promised to finance the project. Iran may invest
something too, as well as some international organizations like
the World Bank and Armenian Bank of Development. Implementation of
the project will give Armenia an alternative route to Iran and Asia
beyond. In fact, even Russia and some European countries might find
this railroad an interesting solution. Iran and Armenia already have
an agreement that puts Iranian ports on the Caspian Sea and in the
Persian Gulf at Armenian freight forwarders’ disposal (and on some
lenient terms at that). With the new railroad built and functioning,
semi-blockade of Armenia will become history. It will inevitably
increase geopolitical importance of Armenia.