FROM THE BALKAN PACT TO THE CAUCASUS STABILITY PACT
by Mehman Aliyev
Zerkalo
Sept 27 2008
Azerbaijan
On 11 August 2008, at the height of the military-political crisis in
Georgia, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan put forward an
initiative to form the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform
on the basis of the OSCE principles. The Turkish prime minister made
shuttle trips to Moscow, Tbilisi and Baku. He also familiarized
Iranian President Ahmadinezhad with the initiative, while Turkish
President Abdullah Gul familiarized his Armenian counterpart Serzh
Sargsyan with the initiative during a "football trip" to Yerevan.
There were different, mainly critical, comments on Erdogan’s
initiative. Washington even voiced its surprise at Ankara’s initiative
to form the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform. "We thought
that Turkey and the USA follow a coordinated policy in the South
Caucasus. However, Ankara did not inform Washington about the issue
and we were really surprised with the actions of our partner,"
Matthew Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, said archly.
However, it is unlikely that Americans, who are "forefathers" of
this project, were unaware of the planned initiative. First time the
idea of creating a regional security system in the South Caucasus
was put forward at the NATO anniversary summit in Washington in
1999. US representatives suggested establishing peace in the Caucasus
through economic cooperation and put forward an initiative to create
a Caucasus cooperation forum involving the three South Caucasus
countries, naturally under the aegis of the USA and without Russia’s
and Iran’s involvement.
[Passage omitted: details of similar proposals put forward in the
recent years]
After a failed attempt to stop the Western invasion into the region
through its incursion to Georgia, Moscow has eased destructive levers
of influence a bit that has created advantageous prerequisites
for the implementation of the idea of the Caucasus house which is
being viewed as a "construction" where peace, stability and progress
reign. These prerequisites are the consolidation of international
democratic community with regard to policy in the Caucasus, a threat
of isolation of Russia and the provoked crisis in Russia’s economy,
the arrival of NATO’s navy in the Black Sea and of EU peacekeeping
forces in Georgia, the handover of a settlement format of the Abkhaz
and South Ossetian conflict under international control, and the
start of Turkish-Armenian and Turkish-Azerbaijani peace dialogues.
Another main prerequisite is that the peaceful settlement of conflicts
(e.g. the Karabakh conflict) within the stability pact dovetails with
the proposals of the OSCE Minsk Group (that involves Russia) that
provide for a stage-by-stage settlement of the problem: liberation of
the occupied territories, return of refugees, establishment of all
types of cooperation in the region and discussion on the issue of
status in the future, in new and favourable conditions. The latter
mean the formation of democratic governments elected through free
and fair elections; NATO’s, the EU’s membership for countries of the
region etc. In other words, that means the transfer of negotiations
from distrust and offence to confidence and mutual respect.
The pact creates unique possibility for all countries in the region to
get out of a difficult and dangerous situation that developed after
the Georgian crisis. First of all, it applies to Russia, the key
player in the region that has temporary fallen out from the process
of Euro-Atlantic cooperation, which has caused grave consequences for
the country. At the same time, Russia’s involvement in the Caucasus
Stability and Cooperation Platform jointly with the USA and the EU,
which is inevitable, would give an impetus to conciliation not only
in the South Caucasus but also in the disturbed North Caucasus.
Unfortunately, Iran, another influential regional player, will be
outside the South Caucasus peace process despite its striving to be
involved in it. That is mostly because of the nuclear aspirations of
clerical authorities in Tehran and their open enmity to the US global
leadership. Taking into account a unified position of the UN Security
Council member states on Iran’s nuclear claims, Russia and other
possible participants in the stability project in the Caucasus will
not insist on involving the Islamic Iran in the Caucasus peace process
within Erdogan’s plan. However, Iran’s involvement in the stability
project will become inevitable in the future, after democratic reforms
are carried out in that country.