Month: September 2008

LETTER: DECEPTIVE CALM IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH

ISN
Sept 1 2008
Switzerland

In the breakaway Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh inside Azerbaijan
there is a feeling of short-term security and long-term dread.

Image: WikipediaBy Ben Judah in Stepanakert for ISN Security Watch
(01/09/08)

Outside the Defense Ministry in Stepanakert, the capital of
Nagorno-Karabakh, a dozen teenage conscripts, some barely over 17, are
waiting for orders. Laughing and trying to sneak coffee or cigarettes
into the base without being caught, they readily confess how lucky
they feel.

Intensely wary, like everyone I spoke to in the enclave, they asked
for their names to be changed. Sergei knows he’s lucky. "We are
spending our days guarding the HQ; however, our friends are down at
the frontlines. There is shooting everyday down there…you know…the
volume goes up and down on the killing."

Sergei translates for some of the other boys. One claims to have seen
an Azeri troop build-up through his binoculars; others stress that
the enemy is scared of their troops and is wary about attacking.

I ask Sergei how many of the conscripts think there will be war
within the next year. Of the group of 12 or so, two shake their
heads. When I ask is if war will come "eventually," they all seem in
agreement. Sergei tries to explain: "They cannot allow us to live on
our land. When that happens what else can you do but fight?"

Across the road from the Defense Ministry, a small building barely
bigger than a large post office houses the Foreign Ministry. A senior
official who refused to disclose his name gave me a curt briefing on
the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

He sits before a map of the Caucasus showing six carefully drawn out
states. Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno Karabakh are all displayed
in this cartography as sovereign and equal alongside Armenia, Georgia
and Azerbaijan.

He begins, "We have been working with the OSCE group since 1994
and are committed to a solution. The other side, however, is still
refusing to acknowledge and therefore there can be no movement. What
makes this conflict so intractable is that they are Muslims, we are
Christian. They are violent by nature."

The conversation turns to recent events in the Caucasus and the
official gestures to the map: "We are not like South Ossetia or
Abkhazia – we are not a Russian puppet. We are more independent than
them. However, this is a tough situation. These are uncertain and
serious times."

And then he hisses, "just remember before you start accusing Russia
that your country is doing whatever it can to help the Muslims
swallow us."

My encounter in the Foreign Ministry brought me face-to-face with what
Caucasian expert and historian Tom de Waal has termed the deepening
of the "hate-narratives" that simplify and distort the conflict into
easily digestible and mutually exclusive world-views.

Most of the other people I encountered in Stepanakert, having lived
through the bitter war that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union
held this world view close to heart. When I asked a taxi driver what
his feelings were toward Azerbaijan, he laughed and asked: "What are
your feelings towards cockroaches? They breed fast and you want them
out of your house!"

In the same way that the frozen conflict in Georgia began to heat up
slowly in 2007 with sporadic shootings and a cranking up of rhetoric
that eventually led to war, there have been disturbing signs of a
thaw in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In March, during the Armenian election crisis, a small group of Azeri
troops tried to pierce the lines near Stepanakert and the resulting
fire-fight – the most intense since the unofficial cease-fire came
into effect in 1994 – caused deep concern for stability in the region.

Azeri rhetoric continued to rise with calls from Baku that it may be
"forced to re-take the region by military means."

However, since the war broke out in Georgia, things have frozen
over once more; yet they are far from being resolved. Nothing is
certain in this great power game, and this has left the inhabitants
of Nagorno-Karabakh on edge.

In the village of Shushi, 5 kilometers from Stepanakert, local
businessman Nelson Ketchurian shared his fears with me.

"I have been trying to make a living here since the Azeris withdrew
from Shushi. They used this town as a position to bomb Stepanakert
and almost destroyed it. How do I know that will not happen again?

"Right now I think they are scared of us and they will not attack. We
don’t want war. We are peaceful people. But I think they do – and
sooner or later, war will be coming back. Right now we just can’t say –
and it’s hard living like this, never knowing."

In Stepanakert, the streets are tidy and clean and the massive
investment made by the Armenian Diaspora has returned economic
vitality to the town. But in the midst of an atmosphere of calm and
short-term security, almost banality, recent events in the Caucasus
have triggered a sense of long-term dread for those living on the
fault-lines of this frozen conflict.

Ben Judah is a senior correspondent for ISN Security Watch, currently
writing from the Caucasus and Russia.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only,
not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).

‘Letters’ is an ISN Security Watch series in which our correspondents
give their thoughts on day-to-day life in their communities and areas
from which they report.

FATIH CEKIRGE: SHOULD THE TURKISH PRESIDENT VISIT ARMENIA?

Hurriyet
Sept 1 2008
Turkey

This is the critical question being asked at the table where high
officials of the Turkish Foreign Ministry sit:

-Should Turkish President Abdullah Gul attend the football match
between the Turkey and Armenian national teams?

None of these diplomats say "he should not" attend…

The basic opinion they hold is that "the hand extended by Armenia
should not be left hanging in the air."

At this point, the decision is entirely the president’s.

According to my observations on the issue;

-Gul has decided to accept the invitation to visit Armenia but does
not want to announce it.

Why?

-Because, if he announces it now it will give fanatics in the Armenian
capital, Yerevan time to prepare disruptive actions; as fanatics
collectively buy tickets to watch matches together.

It is for this reason that Gul will announce his decision on Sept 6,
the match’s scheduled date, and travel to Yerevan on that day.

Of course his decision will have some reflections on internal politics?

At hurriyet.com.tr, we conducted a brief survey in which we asked
our readers the following questions:

– Should Gul go or not?

A serious number of readers, 25,000, participated in the survey.

It is a high figure, considering that some 5,000 people participate
in comprehensive surveys… It is important since it also gives an
insight into to what society thinks about this issue.

The result on Sunday afternoon was as follows:

– The percentage of respondents supporting his visit was 41.2 percent.

– The percentage of respondents that do not support his visit was
58.8 percent.

Of course, the relations between the two states leave little room
for sentimentality.

– Can such a visit be paid while Armenia continues its invasion of
Azerbaijani lands?

-Can such a visit be paid while the so-called genocide sculpture
still stands in Yerevan?

The visit can be assessed within the scope of these two questions.

– Turkey can teach a lesson of peace to whole world. The invitation
has been extended, the hand is outstretched, and it should be shaken.

It can also be assessed in this way…

In my point of view, diplomacy cannot progress through fear and closed
borders… The problems will not be solved. It is not consistent to
talk of a Caucasus Platform and to close borders.

It is certain, the only thing that can affect the decision at this
point is:

– Will Gul’s visit be the start of something?

A serious intelligence study is currently ongoing in Yerevan to
understand the atmosphere that exists and the possibility for any
disruptive and destructive activities that might take place at the
match, such as egg throwing or riotous behavior…

This is not an easy task, but as it is Turkey’s president who will
make the visit, all these details are being observed.

GEORGIAN RAILWAYS BACK IN ACTION
By M. Alkhazashvili

The Messenger
Sept 1 2008
Georgia

Rail transport has again started using the restored railway bridge
near Kaspi which was blown up by Russian occupiers almost two
weeks ago. Georgia has suffered serious losses as a result of this
action. The restoration of the damaged bridge has already cost GEL
30 million and Georgian Railway still has to compensate their owners
for the cost of oil transported and blown up near the village of Skra
close to Gori.

Very serious losses have also been suffered by our neighbours as a
result of the Russian invasion. Azerbaijan could not sell its oil as it
could not transport it, while Armenia had food supply problems. However
there is some good news. The construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars
Railway’s Georgian segment has started again, having been suspended
during the combat. Currently there are no shortfalls in financing or
any logistical problems with this construction.

Sept 1 2008

Fatih Cekirge: Should the Turkish president visit Armenia?

This is the critical question being asked at the table where high
officials of the Turkish Foreign Ministry sit:

-Should Turkish President Abdullah Gul attend the football match
between the Turkey and Armenian national teams?

None of these diplomats say "he should not" attend…

The basic opinion they hold is that "the hand extended by Armenia
should not be left hanging in the air."

At this point, the decision is entirely the president’s.

According to my observations on the issue;

-Gul has decided to accept the invitation to visit Armenia but does
not want to announce it.

Why?

-Because, if he announces it now it will give fanatics in the Armenian
capital, Yerevan time to prepare disruptive actions; as fanatics
collectively buy tickets to watch matches together.

It is for this reason that Gul will announce his decision on Sept 6,
the match’s scheduled date, and travel to Yerevan on that day.

Of course his decision will have some reflections on internal politics?

At hurriyet.com.tr, we conducted a brief survey in which we asked
our readers the following questions:

– Should Gul go or not?

A serious number of readers, 25,000, participated in the survey.

It is a high figure, considering that some 5,000 people participate
in comprehensive surveys… It is important since it also gives an
insight into to what society thinks about this issue.

The result on Sunday afternoon was as follows:

– The percentage of respondents supporting his visit was 41.2 percent.

– The percentage of respondents that do not support his visit was
58.8 percent.

Of course, the relations between the two states leave little room
for sentimentality.

– Can such a visit be paid while Armenia continues its invasion of
Azerbaijani lands?

-Can such a visit be paid while the so-called genocide sculpture
still stands in Yerevan?

The visit can be assessed within the scope of these two questions.

– Turkey can teach a lesson of peace to whole world. The invitation
has been extended, the hand is outstretched, and it should be shaken.

It can also be assessed in this way…

In my point of view, diplomacy cannot progress through fear and closed
borders… The problems will not be solved. It is not consistent to
talk of a Caucasus Platform and to close borders.

It is certain, the only thing that can affect the decision at this
point is:

– Will Gul’s visit be the start of something?

A serious intelligence study is currently ongoing in Yerevan to
understand the atmosphere that exists and the possibility for any
disruptive and destructive activities that might take place at the
match, such as egg throwing or riotous behavior…

This is not an easy task, but as it is Turkey’s president who will
make the visit, all these details are being observed.

RUSSIAN OWNED MADNEULI PLANS NEW INVESTMENTS IN GEORGIA
Levan Lomtadze

The FINANCIAL
Sept 1 2008
Georgia

The FINANCIAL — The Russian-Georgian war was a big test for the
companies operating in Georgia. Some of them started thinking about
whether or not it would be profitable to stay in the Georgian market,
but this was not the case for Russian giant – mining company Madneuli,
the winner of the most influential award in Georgia, Golden Brand 2007.

"Madneuli is committed to continue business activities
in Georgia. Additionally, we are planning to open a new pit in
Sakdrisi soon. Recently the company opened the Balichi pit and we are
conducting research in one of our potential pits in Racha, and soon
another research is coming to the Adjara region," Nikoloz Avaliani,
Marketing Department of Madneuli, told The FINANCIAL.

"We have information that foreign investors are going to raise
investments in the country, especially long-term investments,"
said Avaliani.

One of the prior activities of Madneuli is the implementation of social
projects. In 2007-2008 the amount for charity funds and sponsorship
of Madneuli will exceed USD 3 million.

In this difficult situation when there are tens of thousands of
refugees who need help, Madneuli was one of the first companies that
contributed a huge amount in order to help the displaced people from
the conflict zones.

"In the days of war we visited almost all the hospitals in
Georgia. Quartzite with Madneuli bought medicines, food, water and
beds for the refugees and injured people. Also it should be noted
that we are planning to donate much more to the cause in the near
future. I think the total amount contributed will exceed GEL 1
million," Avaliani noted.

Madneuli is going to actively continue operating in Georgia and
further more they are going to put more effort into searching for
new resources.

Despite the war Madneuli didn’t halt its production process. The
working schedule was not changed because of the conflict. Madneuli
uses railway to transport products to the seaport Poti, from where
it goes to different countries.

According to the Marketing Department of the company the war did not
have an effect on sales because it coincided with time intervals when
production is collected and packed for transportation.

"Now as we know the railway is functioning properly and Madneuli is
running continuous production process," claimed Avaliani.

The company also guaranteed the safety of its workers.

"The Madneuli factory is far away from the conflict zone. It should
be mentioned that all workers of Madneuli are insured and well
equipped. During the war special security measures were fulfilled,"
said Avaliani.

It seems as though there were minimal or no losses at Madneuli during
the conflict. "As our production was not interrupted the losses are
minimal or perhaps even zero, but it is still too early for exact
calculations."

According to the company the partners of Madneuli actively paid
attention to statements made by European leaders and US officials. As
these statements were in support of Georgia, foreign partners do not
see reason to worry in the long-term. Furthermore as EBRD and other
financial institutions released their readiness to raise financial
injections in Georgia this was signal to all of the partners that
business conditions in the country are rather good.

In the first quarter of 2008 the company sold a record USD 50 million
worth of production. After this data Madneuli became #1 exporter of
the country. In 2005, 2006 and 2007 the net incomes of the company
were USD 18,063,968 million, USD 47,745,547 million and USD 15,159,565
million respectively.

The company was established in 1975 in the Bolnisi region,
Georgia. Madneuli contributes more than 10% of Georgian
exports. Madneuli is operating in gold and copper markets. Over 65%
of the company revenues come from sales of copper. Madneuli’s primary
focus is on copper because of the experience with and the prospects
for this metal. The company exports to France, the UK, Germany,
and Austria.

The major shareholder of Madneuli is Russian resources holding company
Geopromining. In Georgia Geopromining owns Madneuli and Quartzite.

According to Armenian newspaper Hetq online Madneuli is a sister
affiliate of the Prominvest Corporation whose principal owners are
Sergei Generalov and Siman Poverenkin.

Along with Madneuli Russian capital including the banking sector,
energy, oil, mobile communications, plants, air companies – have all
felt at comfort in Georgia up till now. During the conflict, which
is widely expected to be resolved, VTB , Beeline, Telasi and LUKOIL
worked normally and did not come under attack by the local population.

The only non-functioning body with Russian capital is the Azoti plant,
though the reason has nothing to do with war as the plant is undergoing
renovation works.

Georgian-Russian company Energy Invest acquired Azot in 2005 for USD
20 million.

Energy Invest, which owns fertilizer company Azoti, located in Rustavi,
35 km from Tbilisi , told The FINANCIAL the only reason why the Azoti
plant has stopped now is because of the renovation works being carried
out there.

"Georgia will not attempt to re-nationalize assets owned by Russian
companies such as UES, Vimpelcom or VTB following its conflict with
Russia," the Georgian Deputy Prime Minister Giorgi Baramidze told
mergermarket, according to the Financial Times.

Economic expert Soso Tsiskarishvili said that the Georgian government
should be able to think ahead carefully before making decisions. Today
in Russia there is no big Georgian business capital, but there’s a
huge physical capital which is in danger. The Georgian government
can’t risk the lives of these people.

In order to adequately react to Russia’s actions, every vague
transaction that was made with Russian companies should be
overlooked. There are many questions regarding the legal aspects of
the contracts with which economically strategic units were sold.

Vakhtang Khmaladze, the well known Georgian expert, believes that when
economically strategic units in Georgia were being sold to Russian
companies the legal rights of the Georgian and Russian companies
weren’t equal. "According to Georgian legislation those foreign
companies whose main shareholder is the government of another country,
have the right for acquisition. While in Russia the legislation forbids
acquisitions by these kinds of companies because of political threats."

Today the Georgian government is less likely to start nationalization
of property belonging to Russian corporations, Khmaladze says. "A more
realistic solution would be to use Georgian legislation. There are a
number of Russian corporations whose main shareholder is the Russian
government and own strategically important units in Georgia. The
law should oblige them to sell their property to other non-Russian
companies. The price at which the companies will be sold must be a
competitive price, which will be beneficial for the Russian side too."

PROBLEMS SHOULD BE SOLVED TO PROTECT STABILITY IN S.CAUCASUS: GORAN LENMARKER

Trend News Agency
Sept 1 2008
Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan, Baku, 1 September / Trend News corr. I.Alizade / Goran
Lenmarker, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security
and Co-operation in Europe (PA OSCE) Special Envoy for Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict and Georgia, discussed the current situation in South Caucasus
at a meeting at the Azerbaijani Parliament.

"We mulled over general problems existing in the region,
current situation and some issues on this matter at the meeting
with the PA OSCE’s envoy," Samad Seyidov, the chairman of the
Azerbaijani Parliament’s standing commission on international
and inter-parliamentary relations and the head of the Azerbaijani
Delegation at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE), told Trend news on 1 September.

Lenmarker, former president of the PA OSCE and current Special
Envoy for Nagorno-Karabakh and Georgia, arrived in Azerbaijan on 1
September. Lenmarker will meet with the Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev, the speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament Ogtay Asadov and
the Azerbaijani Delegation at the PA OSCE and the Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov.

The PA OSCE Special Envoy will visit Georgia and Armenia.

The PA OSCE Special Envoy wanted to know the commission’s position
on conflicts existing in South Caucasus and their solution, Asmi
Mollazade, who participated in a meeting between Lenmarker and members
of the Azerbaijani Parliament’s standing commission on international
and inter-parliamentary relations, said.

"The commission’s members told Lenmarker that the OSCE basic principles
and documents are being violated in South Caucasus and territorial
integrity of countries is not observed. The latest developments in
Georgia should attract attention of the international community to
these conflicts again," Mollazade said.

According to the MP, the parliamentary commission asked the PA OSCE
to support international law and to approach to all conflicts on the
base of these principles.

"We told Lenmarker that first it is necessary to solve
existing conflicts to protect stability and to provide regular
development. These measures should be achieved on the base of the
international law and the OSCE basic principles," the member of the
commission said.

According to Lenmarker, Azerbaijan is located in the major strategic
part of South Caucasus and it is necessary to solve the conflicts
to protect stability and it should be done on the base of the
international law.

TO SEE OR NOT TO SEE: SERJ TANKIAN
By Mark Powell

Metro
Sept 1 2008
UK

Pro: Political activist, environmental campaigner and voice of
alternative metal band System Of A Down, Serj Tankian has never
followed a conventional rock career.

Con: Might that have contributed to the fact that he’s now effectively
a solo artist, following the announcement in 2006 that System Of A
Down were on indefinite hiatus?

Pro: He’s more likely to be found working alongside Rage Against
The Machine guitarist Tom Morello on behalf of Axis Of Justice, the
non-profit humanitarian organisation that the duo formed in 2002,
than falling out of a bar drunk.

Con: How the hell are you supposed to end up in Heat magazine behaving
like that? Come on, Serj! A paparazzi-courting week in rehab wouldn’t
kill you.

Pro: Last autumn, Tankian’s solo debut, Elect The Dead, was released
to positive reviews, expressing relief that the singer had abandoned
the obscure Armenian folk of previous side project Serart.

Con: Then again, if you’re not prepared for the odd dalliance into
orchestral jazz-noise-rock fusion, then you just don’t know Serj.

Pro: Although evidently keen to stretch himself artistically,
Tankian has not abandoned his rock roots, with this rescheduled UK
tour predominantly based around material from Elect The Dead.

Con: But System Of A Down were fascinating precisely because of those
fresh-sounding influences from the South Caucasus. Serj should’ve
continued boldly on in that territory.

Pro: Physically, he resembles a traditional depiction of Beelzebub
more closely than any other creature on the planet.

Con: If the Devil has all the best tunes, then Tankian, who evidently
prefers having the weirdest, is arguably the more evil of the two.

Tue Sep 2, Carling Academy, 11-13 Hotham Street, Liverpool. 7pm,
18.50 adv. Tel: 0844 477 2000.

CONFLICT IN THE CAUCASUS: THE LONG HISTORY OF RUSSIAN IMPERIALISM

Israel e News

S ept 1 2008
Israel

Filed under World News, Muslim Zionism, IDF/Military, Opinion
Editorials, EU and UK, History, Russia – on Wednesday, January 09,
2008 – By: Schwartz, Stephen

The latest Russian invasion of Georgia–following the examples provided
by tsars Paul I and his successor Alexander I (in 1801) and Soviet
dictator Vladimir Lenin (in 1921, three years after Georgia first
gained modern independence)–has fully revealed the character of
post-Soviet neo-imperialism under Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin’s master, his puppet president Dmitry Medvedev, and their
supporters are obviously committed to reversing the dissolution of
the Soviet empire after 1991, with an ambition and ferocity previously
absent among the successors to the Communist dictators. But no one can
really have been surprised by the assault on Georgia. It was clearly
on the Russian agenda beginning early in 2004, when American-educated
and Western-oriented attorney Mikheil Saakashvili was elected Georgia’s
president after the peaceful "Rose Revolution." Military expert Ralph
Peters, in a briefing at the American Enterprise Institute on August
13, argued persuasively that the speed of Russia’s latest rape of
Georgia demonstrated that the aggressor’s armed forces were ready
and waiting for Putin’s signal to act.

Georgia’s transition toward democracy coincided with the similar
Orange Revolution in Ukraine and Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan. All
of them piqued the anger of Putin, who wanted less rather than more
self-determination in the former Soviet states.

But Georgia and Ukraine had taken further measures to consolidate
their Western alignment, by applying for membership in the NATO
alliance. Some commentators imply that Russian interference in Georgia
was spurred by Western recognition of the independence of Kosovo in
February 2008. But a much more serious contributing fact was NATO’s
decision at the Bucharest conference in April, impelled by Germany
and France under Russian influence, to reject Georgian and Ukrainian
membership in the defense organization.

President George W. Bush had lobbied for the eastward extension of
NATO. Georgia had joined the Partnership for Peace–considered by
most countries a step toward NATO membership–in 1992, and applied for
full accession in 2002, but Ukraine had delayed its application until
early this year. Exclusion of the two former Soviet possessions was
a clear signal to Putin that Moscow could begin a brutal reassertion
of domination over them.

In pursuing this aim, Putin, trained as an officer of the Soviet
secret police, carried out a series of actions, each of which should
have been enough to warn the world of his intentions. Secessionist
movements had been subsidized by the Russians since the early 1990s
in Abkhazia, where Russian "peacekeepers" were stationed in 1993,
and in South Ossetia, where some residents took Russian rather than
Georgian citizenship, even though Ossetians are not Slavs, but a
Christian people of Iranian origin.

Both of these territories have belonged to Georgia for millennia. But
they had been granted fake "autonomy" under Soviet rule, to fragment
the Georgian majority, which is also non-Slav. The Abkhazians are
related to the Georgians, and include Muslims as well as Christians.

The years since the Rose Revolution, and especially since the rejection
of Georgian and Ukrainian admission to NATO, have seen a rising Russian
policy of provocation against Georgia, the weaker of the two aspirants
to Western defense links. In 2006, mysterious explosions cut off the
Russian supply of natural gas to Georgia. Mainly rhetorical tensions
continued until April 2008, when Russian harassment increased.

Russia announced that it would recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia
as separate entities from Georgia, integrating Abkhazia’s Black Sea
transport facilities into the Russian air and maritime infrastructure,
and proposing construction of a new gas pipeline in the coastal
region. The same month, Russia’s Abkhazian agents shot down a Georgian
air force drone. In July, respected Russian military journalist Pavel
Felgenhauer warned that a Russian-provoked war would break out in
Georgia in August. His prediction was ignored in the West.

As for Saakashvili’s responsibility in the situation, the Georgian
president had been pressed to a point where a failure to act to
protect his country’s territorial integrity would have indicated
surrender to Moscow without a fight.

Once real war exploded, the Russians began a new round of provocative
public relations actions. They bussed South Ossetian "refugees"
from place to place, describing them as victims of Georgian
"genocide." Moscow declares that it has the right to intervene
anywhere the "dignity" of its co-ethnics, or their allies, may be
threatened–within or outside its borders, and especially in the
so-called "near abroad" of former Soviet territories. The Russians
have also, outrageously, called for the removal, and possible trial,
of Saakashvili as an "enemy."

To anybody who has observed the sequence of ethnic wars in the former
Communist world since 1990, the playbook is familiar. Like Putin,
Serbian president Slobodan Milosevic paraded Serbian "victims" around
the former Yugoslavia, and asserted the right to commit mass murder
in Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina, and Kosovo allegedly to protect his
compatriots. The establishment of mafia enclaves like the "Republika
Srpska," occupying half of Bosnia, and a similar effort now underway
north of Mitrovica in Kosovo, paralleled the nurturing of a mafia
parastate in "Transnistria" on the border of Moldova, as well as
Putin’s operations in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

But while the effects are the same, Putin has not imitated Milosevic;
rather, he has followed a pattern set even before the Soviet Union
began disintegrating, in 1988, when Armenia, allied with Russia,
recovered a section out of its neighbor, Azerbaijan that had been
detached by Stalin. Armenia and Azerbaijan, which border Georgia to
the southwest, remain at war today.

Meanwhile, radical Islamist agitation continues in Ingushetia,
Chechnya, and Daghestan, to Georgia’s north. Iran is not far away;
Persia ruled Georgia before the Russian conquest in the 19th century,
and Tehran still sees Georgia as within its potential sphere of
influence. Russia has launched its newest adventure in the most
dangerous part of the European-Asian frontier.

The horror unfolding in Georgia could prove to be the worst such
gambit since the ill-fated Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and may
become the first major clash in a new cold war. And even if Georgia
is vanquished, wise observers like AEI’s Leon Aron warn that the real
target is Ukraine. Putin might attempt to reassert Russian control over
Crimea, which came under Ukrainian authority after communism ended;
or he might try to slice off part of Eastern Ukraine as yet another
ethnic enclave susceptible to Russian usurpation. But Ukraine is big,
and its native population is likely unafraid to fight. When Ukraine
informed Moscow that the Russian Black Sea fleet, which was stationed
in Crimea, could not be used against the Georgians, the Russian ships
lifted anchor.

Some critics say President Bush was slow to reply to Russian aggression
against Georgia, which had sent troops to fight alongside American
forces in Iraq. As the days went by, however, the U.S. response
improved, and U.S. military and humanitarian supplies have been flown
to the embattled Georgians.

Saakashvili and his people have other friends, whose attitude
toward Russian power is hardly accommodating. Along with Ukrainian
president Viktor Yushchenko, the Polish president, Lech Kaczynski,
and the leaders of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania flew to Tbilisi
to demonstrate their backing for Putin’s victims. They know only too
well the history of their region.

Thus, with the tsar’s conquest of Georgia more than 200 years ago,
the ancient Georgian Christian monarchy–which had survived Iranian
rule–was abolished. A few years later, the Georgian Orthodox Church,
which had enjoyed religious autonomy since the 4th century, was
forcibly absorbed into Russian Orthodoxy.

Under the tsars, Georgia was a hotbed of nationalist discontent. By the
beginning of Russia’s radical revolutionary period, it had come under
the political dominance of the moderate Socialists, or Mensheviks;
Lenin’s invasion in 1921 quashed the only post-tsarist Menshevik
regime. But Georgia also produced Bolsheviks, including Joseph Stalin,
who was educated in a Georgian Orthodox seminary that had become a
center for nationalist and revolutionary indoctrination.

Stalin, who never mastered the Russian language, nonetheless became
a Slav chauvinist, and although his minions in power included his
fellow-Georgian, the feral police boss Lavrenti Beria, he was brutal to
most of his ethnic peers. The dark year 1937, when the murder machine
was operating at full throttle, saw the purge and execution of Titsian
Tabidze, a gifted and renowned modernist poet who had been a close
friend of Boris Pasternak. Tabidze’s associate Paolo Yashvili committed
suicide in protest, in the office of the Georgian Writers’ Union. These
authors remain beloved heroes and martyrs of the Georgian people.

As for the South Ossetians, whose "leaders" have provided cover
for subversion of Georgian authority, they have their own baleful
history. Under the tsars, the Ossetians were known as prison guards
and other mercenaries for the Russian overlords. Stalin’s parents
have long been described as Georgianized Ossetians, and in one of his
most memorable verses, the purged and murdered poet Osip Mandelstam,
Russia’s greatest writer after Pushkin, wrote of Stalin, Every killing
is sweet as berry jam / For the proud, broad-chested Ossetian.The
poem cost Mandelstam his life.

It is still possible to prevent more bloodshed in Georgia. But time is
short in dealing with Putin, the proud, physically-fit secret police
veteran, as he advances along the terrible path of his war-mongering
predecessors.

The opinions and views articulated by the author do not necessarily
reflect those of Israel e News.

RUSSIAN THREATS LOOM OVER HISTORIC EU SUMMIT
Renata Goldirova

EUobserver.com
26662
Sept 1 2008
Belgium

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – EU leaders are holding an emergency summit on
EU-Russia relations on Monday (1 September) – the first such meeting
since the 9/11 attacks in the US. But the union is split on how to
handle Moscow, with the Kremlin threatening to retaliate against
Europe if it adopts punitive sanctions.

Georgia has high hopes for the EU emergency summit (Photo:
ec.europa.eu) Print Comment article The French EU presidency called
the summit after Russia launched a military incursion into Georgia
in response to its attack on the rebel-held town of Tskhinvali in
South Ossetia. Russia subsequently recognised Georgia’s two breakaway
regions – South Ossetia and Abkhazia – as independent states.

Europe has already condemned Moscow’s actions, but the majority of
EU states is not in the mood to go beyond words, with France, Italy,
Spain, Finland, Austria, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Greece and Cyprus all
speaking out against punitive measures before the summit began.

The French EU presidency will on Monday table a "balanced and firm
text" that falls short of sanctions, AFP reports. "It will not propose
sanctions, but very precise undertakings," French foreign minister
Bernard Kouchner said over the weekend.

UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, in a statement in The Observer on
Sunday, called on EU colleagues to "review – root and branch – our
relationship with Russia," however. He suggested excluding Russia
from the Group of Eight leading industrialised nations.

British diplomats also told the Sunday Telegraph newspaper that London
will push for mini-sanctions, such as an EU visa ban on South Ossetia
and Abkhazia officials as well as Russian citizens active in politics
in the two Georgian regions.

Poland, Sweden, the Czech republic, the Baltic States – Estonia,
Lithuania and Latvia – are also keen to take a tough line, diplomats
say.

But Poland’s position is ambiguous, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk
telling Newsweek magazine there should be no more EU-Russia summits
until Russia pulls soldiers from Georgia, then adding he does not
want Warsaw to become isolated in a radical stance.

Meanwhile, Germany is locked in an internal dispute. The Conservative
party in Germany’s coalition government backs the British G8 suggestion
"as long as Russia is not prepared to find a solution under the
framework of the United Nations," the IHT reports.

But the Social Democrats have warned against cornering Russia. "Moscow
deserves criticism for its behaviour, but that doesn’t change the fact
that security and stability in Europe can only be achieved with and
not against Russia," German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier
said, according to Reuters. "Europe would only be hurting itself if
we were to get full of emotion and slam all the doors shut."

The last time the EU imposed sanctions on Russia was following its
invasion of Chechnya in 1994, with Europe freezing the ratification
of a Partnership and Co-operation Agreement, which entered into force
in 1997.

Russian warning

In the run up to the EU summit, the Kremlin – which controls some
25 percent of EU oil and gas imports – issued a number of hostile
messages to the West.

President Dmitry Medvedev said on Russian TV on Sunday: "We do not
favour sanctions on the whole and only resort to them in extreme
circumstances. [But] if required, we could pass the relevant
legislation."

Mr Medvedev added that his country was set to restore its influence
in what he labelled "regions of privileged interest" and to defend
"the life and dignity" of Russian citizens "no matter where they are
located," raising fears of further Russian interventions in Moldova
or Ukraine.

"The EU is not in a position to throw Russia out of anywhere," Russia’s
ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, told Reuters, describing any
attempt to isolate Russia as "short-sighted and unrealistic."

Moscow stands alone on recognising the breakaway Georgia territories so
far. Venezuela, Belarus and Central Asian states have given rhetorical
support but stopped short of recognition. Two other separatist enclaves
– Transniestria in Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan – are
the only other entities tohave recognised South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russia has also taken a financial hit from the crisis, with French bank
BNP Paribas estimating investors recently pulled â~B¬17 billion out of
the country. The Russian stock market has plunged since fighting began.

High hopes

Expectations for the EU summit are high in Georgia, where up to 30,000
people are expected to take part in an anti-Russia demonstration in
Tbilisi on Monday. Demonstrations in Brussels and across Europe are
also planned for the afternoon.

The Georgian prime minister, foreign minister and integration minister
are to meet with EU officials in Brussels on Monday but will not take
part in the summit itself.

Georgia estimates the conflict caused around â~B¬1.4 billion in
damage to its infrastructure, with Georgia’s entire annual state
budget running to just â~B¬2 billion. The UN says the five-day war
affected 160,000 people.

The European Commission has already put aside â~B¬6 million in
humanitarian aid, with member states promising some â~B¬8.4 million
more.

The EU’s summit package for Georgia is expected to feature proposals
for a major donors conference and an EU monitoring team to take part
in an international peacekeeping force in the conflict zones.

The EU is also set to strengthen political and economic relations
with Georgia, a French diplomat said, including moves toward a
free-trade deal and easier visa regulations for Georgian people
traveling to Europe.

–Boundary_(ID_CWKc7UsnohbE89T36OlKSg)–

COMMENTS OF AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL SCIENTISTS REGARDING THE VISIT OF TURKISH PRESIDENT ABDULLAH GUL TO YEREVAN

Today.Az
s/47312.html
Sept 1 2008
Azerbaijan

Day.Az held a blitz-poll among famous Azerbaijani political scientists
regarding the upcoming visit of Turkish President Abdullah Gul
to Armenia.

Famous political scientist Eldar Jahangirov:

"It is an undoubted axiom that leaders of every country ought to care
about the national interests of their country. In this connection,
the decision of Turkish President Abdullah Gul to visit Yerevan to
watch a football match between the teams of Armenia and Turkey is a
bright illustration of official Ankara’s protection of the national
interests of Turkey.

But I think that the decision of the working leadership of Turkey is
a mistake in the strategic sense, as no one in Yerevan has ever said
that Armenia would disavow the idea of recognition of the "genocide"
of Armenians in Osman Turkey, which implies possible further material
and territorial claims by Armenia and world Armenians. We just hear of
Armenia’s readiness for a dialogue with Turkey, which is an unstable
ground for optimism and even so more for such apparent steps towards
Armenia, which are made by the working leadership of Turkey.

Famous political scientist Zardusht Alizade:

"I approve the decision of Turkish President Abdullah Gul, who
accepted the invitation of the Armenian President to attend the
Armenia-Turkey football match in Yerevan, as, thus, Turkey will have
more opportunities to influence the progressive part of the Armenian
society, which speaks for the normalization of the Turkish-Armenian
relations. I am sure that after Abdullah Gul’s visit to Yerevan the
voices of those, who support normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations
will sound stronger.

As for Azerbaijan, we should have got rid of illusions that someone,
in this case, Turkey, will settle our problems, in this case the
problem of the Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani lands.

Azerbaijan and Turkey are two different states and our national
interests also differ. Turkey is currently holding an external
policy, which is profitable to it. Nagorno Karabakh and all other
occupied lands is our own, Azerbaijani business, it is our mirror,
which reflects our idea of honor and dignity"

Famous political scientist Vafa Quluzade:

"Today the South Caucasus region reminds of a boiler with muddy water
and it is difficult to single out a grain in this water. The visit of
Turkish President Abdullah Gul is also thus contradictory and covered
with a veil of secrecy.

It is only left to guess about the real motives of this step of
the current leadership of Turkey. If Turkey makes these steps under
Russia’s pressure, which promises economic benefits in a form of energy
supply, flow of tourists and other bonuses to it, it is frustrating,
because I understand personally that Armenia is an edge, Russia is
targeting at Turkey with. It is also clear that Armenians hate Turks
genetically, accusing them of organization of a mythical "genocide"
in Osman Turkey in 1915. Armenians’ outlook can not change in the
result of the only visit of the Turkish President to Yerevan.

Moreover, we all remember well that Turkish leaders, including the
working ones, have repeatedly stated that official Ankara has nothing
to speak of with official Yerevan unless the latter releases the
occupied lands of Azerbaijan.

Unfortunately, we see that times change and it makes us think that
Turkey treats Azerbaijan as a stepson, while we, in Azerbaijan,
would like to see a mother in Turkey’s face. Therefore, we hope that
Abdullah Gul’s visit will finally be in favor of not only Armenia
and Turkey, but also Azerbaijan. For this purpose it is necessary
for Armenia to disavow the idea of recognition of 1915 "genocide"
and agree to return all the occupied lands of Azerbaijan, coming back
to the Caucasus family and rejecting the status of "Russia’s outpost
in the Caucasus", which is disgraceful for an independent state.

Famous political scientist Rasim Aghayev:

"The whole policy of a thaw in the Armenian-Turkish relations has a
hidden motive. The thing is that Erdogan’s government, with all its
achievements, is in a vulnerable state. The thing is that Islamists are
still not accepted either in the United States or in Europe. Therefore,
the attempts of Erdogan’s government to change opinion about them out
of Turkey’s bounds are not surprising. Unfortunately, in the result,
it turns out that the current leadership of Turkey is turning into
"a greater Catholics than the Roman Pope".

Unfortunately, most actions of the working leadership of Turkey are
astonishing. They are understandable and suitable for the United States
and Europe, which put pressure on Turkey in the issue of restoring
good neighbor relations with Armenia, but are surprising for Turkey,
which was used to base on the national interests of the state and
these interests do not attribute excessive naivety to official Ankara
in building its relations with Armenia, which is currently in a poor
economic state, but has not yet disavowed the idea of recognizing the
"genocide of Armenians" in the Osman Turkey and has not released the
occupied lands of Azerbaijan, though these terms were put forward by
official Ankara as critical ones for initiation of a dialogue with
official Yerevan.

It seems to me that after Abdullah Gul’s visit to Yerevan, the
relations between Armenia and Turkey may improve which will worsen
Azerbaijan’ state, for, in this case, we will be left without a
strong partner in the region, while Armenia can always count on
Russia’s support".

Famous political scientist Ilgar Mamedov:

"The visit of Turkish President Abdullah Gul is a positive step, which
in the new conditions, established in the South Caucasus following
a new, tough phase of tensions in the Georgian-Russian conflict,
may change the geopolitical construction of the region.

After the rupture of diplomatic relations between Georgia and Russia,
Armenia is even in a greater isolation. All conditions for further
development and security of Armenia will further be challenged, for
Georgia was a kind of a "window" to Russia for it. Now Georgia has no
diplomatic relations with Russia and is closely bound to Azerbaijan
and Turkey by its geopolitical and economic interests. But it would
be inexpedient for such a small state as Armenia to bind its future
only on the border with Iran. Armenia’s such a shaky position will
allow Turkish leadership to persuade the leaders of this country of
the destructiveness of the way for self-isolation.

Gul will try to explain to Armenians that if they disavow the
territorial claims to Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia will be able to
benefit from the regional economic and political cooperation".
From: Baghdasarian

GORAN LENMARKER BEGINS VISIT TO AZERBAIJAN

Azeri Press Agency
Sept 1 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku. Tamara Grigorieva-APA. Special Representative of the OSCE
Parliamentary Assembly (PA) on Nagorno Karabakh conflict and Georgia,
former President of the organization Goran Lenmarker started his
visit to Azerbaijan on Monday.

OSCE PA Director of Communications Klas Bergman told APA Lenmarker
arrived in Baku last night. He is holding meetings in Milli Majlis,
Azerbaijani Parliament now. He will meet with Azerbaijani delegation to
OSCE PA and Speaker of the Azerbaijani Parliament Ogtay Asadov as well.

President Ilham Aliyev and Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov will
receive Lenmarker on Monday. The Special Representative will also
meet with OSCE ambassadors in Baku. Lenmarker will depart for Georgia
on Tuesday.

He will make report on the outcomes of his visit to the South Caucasian
countries.