Month: September 2008

US CONFRONTS RUSSIA AS CHENEY FLAGS ‘DEEP’ INTEREST IN EX-SOVIET ZONES

Agence France Presse
Sept 4 2008

BAKU (AFP) — The United States and Russia squared off Wednesday as
Vice President Dick Cheney said Washington had a "deep" interest in the
ex-Soviet Caucasus, a key energy corridor he said must be developed.

Moscow meanwhile suspended visas for Georgian citizens and said it
would pull troops out of Georgia only when a French-brokered peace
plan was fully implemented.

Speaking in the oil-rich former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan,
Cheney said: "President Bush has sent me here with the clear and
simple message for the people of Azerbaijan and the entire region.

"The United States has a deep and abiding interest in your wellbeing
and security."

Cheney, the most senior US official to visit the Caucasus region since
Russia and Georgia fought a brief war last month, said access to energy
resources there and in Central Asia was a top concern for Washington.

"Energy security is essential to us all and the matter is becoming
increasingly urgent," Cheney said after meeting Azerbaijani President
Ilham Aliyev.

"Together with the nations of Europe, including Turkey, we must work
with Azerbaijan and other countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia
on additional routes for energy exports that ensure the free flow of
resources," he said.

US officials simultaneously announced a one billion-dollar (690
million-euro) aid package for Georgia following the conflict with
Russia .

Cheney’s comments came a day after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin sealed a new Central Asian gas pipeline deal in Uzbekistan.

They were a clear signal that Washington did not intend to allow
Moscow to regain the unchallenged control over the politics and
natural resources of the Caucasus and Central Asian regions.

Cheney was due to travel Thursday to Georgia for a meeting with that
country’s beleaguered, US-backed President Mikheil Saakashvili, a
leader that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev referred to Monday as a
"political corpse."

And NATO separately announced that its chief Jaap de Hoop Scheffer
would visit Georgia on September 15-16 and could discuss aid for the
country. The visit was planned before the conflict erupted.

Russia and Georgia meanwhile closed down diplomatic exchanges,
though the parliament in Tbilisi formally lifted the state of war in
most of the country that was declared when the hostilities broke out
last month.

"The Russian embassy in Georgia is no longer functioning. The consular
section is closed as well, pending future directives from Moscow,"
embassy spokesman Alexander Savonov told AFP in Tbilisi.

In Moscow, Georgia’s charge d’affaires Givi Shugarov told Interfax news
agency that his embassy had also ceased diplomatic functions though
the consulate was still working to serve Georgians living in Russia.

Russia sent tanks and troops into Georgia after a Georgian offensive
on August 7 to retake the breakaway region of South Ossetia.

Moscow withdrew most of its forces under a French-brokered ceasefire,
but thousands of Russian troops that Moscow terms "peacekeepers"
remain in the two rebel regions and in a buffer zone.

Moscow announced Wednesday that 71 Russian soldiers died in the
conflict.

The West has been infuriated by Russia’s actions in Georgia. The
European Union this week called off talks on a new EU-Russia accord
until Russia withdraws its troops but did not impose sanctions.

Putin on Tuesday welcomed that outcome, saying "common sense" had
prevailed among the EU leaders.

Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev will seek backing for his country’s
intervention at a Moscow summit of seven ex-Soviet states on Friday.

Russia hopes the meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation
— Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan — will build on another gathering in Central Asia last
week that included China, said presidential advisor Sergei Prikhodko.

Medvedev and French President Nicolas Sarkozy spoke by telephone
Wednesday ahead of a meeting between the two next week to discuss
Georgia.

Medvedev told Sarkozy he welcomed the "balanced decision" taken by
EU leaders at a summit this week but said the final document did not
"pass judgement on Georgia’s aggressive actions," the Kremlin said
in a statement.

Sarkozy is to travel with European Commission president Jose Manuel
Barroso and the EU’s foreign policy chief Javier Solana for talks in
Moscow on Monday to discuss the ceasefire agreement.

Sarkozy is expected to announce an international conference on securing
stability in the region, a French diplomat said.

TURKISH PRESIDENT TO VISIT ARMENIA

RTT News
Sept 3 2008
NY

(RTTNews) – Turkish President Abdullah Gul is to travel to Armenia
to watch a weekend soccer match between the national teams of the
two countries, said a statement issued by his office on Wednesday.

According to the statement, President Gul will attended the World Cup
qualifier match between the football teams of the two countries in the
Armenian capital of Yerevan on Saturday, along with his counterpart
Serge Sarkisian.

The statement also expressed hope that Gul’s visit to Armenia would
improve the relations between the two neighboring countries by
promoting better understanding and friendship.

This announcement marks a historic move as both countries have cut
off official ties and closed their mutual border to each other after
the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a Turkish ally, in the 1990s.

Moreover, the Turks had rejected an Armenian demand to classify the
killings of some 1.5m of its citizens by Ottoman Turks between 1915
and 1917 as genocide, sparking the diplomatic tussle.

Turkey acknowledges that that many Armenians were killed by Turks
between 1915 and 1917, but maintains that the deaths were a part of
World War I.

TURKISH PRESIDENT TO TRAVEL TO ARMENIA

PR-Inside.com (Pressemitteilung)
Sept 3 2008
Austria

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) – The office of Turkish President Abdullah Gul
says he will attend a football match in Armenia, signalling a thaw
in relations between the two historic foes.

Turkey and Armenia have no diplomatic relations and their joint border
has been closed for years.

Their rivalry stems from Turkey’s opposition to Armenian forces’
occupation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan and from
Armenia’s insistence that the deaths of an estimated 1.5 million
ethnic Armenians under Ottoman rule in the early 20th century be
recognized as genocide.

The Armenian and Turkish national teams will face each other in a
World Cup qualifier on Saturday.

PUBLIC SUPPORT SHRINKS FOR OPPOSITION

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
Sept 4 2008

Public support for opposition parties in Turkey has considerably
decreased, in contrast to a sharp increase in support for the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AK Party), a new opinion poll has found.

The Social and Political Situation in Turkey survey, conducted by
the Ankara-based MetroPOLL Strategic & Social Research Center from
Aug. 29-31, polled 1,251 people in several Turkish cities to find
their views on the current political situation in the country — which
recently heaved a sigh of relief following the rejection of a closure
case against the governing AK Party — and the popularity of President
Abdullah Gul, who recently completed his first year in office.

According to the survey, a clear majority of Turkish society supports
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party, while the opposition
parties, namely the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist
Movement Party (MHP), continue to suffer from declining popularity
with the public.

Asked who they would vote for if there was an election today, 50.9
percent of respondents said they would vote for the AK Party. The
figure demonstrated the ruling party’s considerable increase in
popularity in less than a month, as around 42 percent of those
polled had said in early August they would vote for the AK Party
if parliamentary elections were to be held the day of the poll. The
survey revealed the CHP and the MHP would remain below the election
threshold should general elections be held on the poll date. Only 9.5
percent of respondents said they would vote for the CHP; 6.6 percent
said they would favor the MHP (6.6) and 2.6 percent said they would
vote for the Democratic Society Party (DTP). However 13.9 percent of
those polled had said in the previous survey that they would vote for
the CHP and 8.4 percent for the MHP. Of the remaining respondents,
11.3 percent said they were undecided, while 7.0 percent said they
would simply vote a blank ballot; 2.0 said they would not go to the
ballot box at all, while 5.3 percent said they had no opinion.

Another major topic of the survey was the president’s popularity among
the people. In response to a question on whether Gul had succeeded
in being everyone’s president during his first year in office, 55.7
percent of those polled said yes, whereas 19.7 percent said no.

The remaining either said they had no idea or that Gul reached his
goal partially. Asked which president — Gul, or former President
Ahmet Necdet Sezer — they trusted, 56.4 percent of the respondents
said they trusted Gul and 21.7 percent said they trusted Sezer.

Participants were also surveyed about concerns over secularism and the
regime in Turkey. In response to a question over whether they shared
the concerns for secularism and the regime raised during the process of
Gul’s election as president, 52 percent responded negatively and 26.6
percent positively. When asked whether Gul’s behavior and decisions
during his first year in office endangered secularism in Turkey,
78.4 percent said no and 17.7 percent said yes.

Respondents were also asked about their view regarding the fact that
Gul’s wife, Hayrunnisa, wears the Islamic headscarf. In response
to a question on whether they perceived her headscarf as a problem,
an overwhelming majority of those polled — 85.8 percent — said no,
with 13.7 percent responding positively.

When asked whether Gul had acted with impartiality during his first
year in office, 60.4 percent responded that he was completely impartial
while 34.4 said he had displayed partisanship. Over 76 percent of
respondents said Gul was sensitive toward society’s social problems,
while around 20 percent said he was insensitive. In response to a
question over whether they were satisfied with Gul’s performance in
the presidency so far, 77.9 percent of those surveyed said yes and
20.8 percent said no.

Those polled were also asked for theirs opinion regarding Gul’s recent
appointments of university rectors. Asked whether they were satisfied
with Gul’s choices, 62.5 percent of respondents said they found them
to be positive, and 25.5 percent said they found them negative.

Gul appointed new rectors for 21 Turkish universities on Aug. 5. The
appointments drew the ire of some circles, who leveled harsh criticism
at Gul, claiming he nominated rectors with no experience in the field
but who were known for their closeness to the AK Party. A number of
professors from various universities even resigned from their posts
in protest, saying they were dissatisfied with the rector appointments
at their respective universities.

When asked if they approved of CHP officials’ refusal to attend any
official or private meetings with Gul held at the Cankaya presidential
palace, an overwhelming majority of respondents said they believed
the CHP officials were pursuing a wrong strategy, and only 12.7 said
they supported the CHP’s stance in that regard.

Another question directed at respondents was about Gul’s pardoning of
former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan. In response to a question
over whether Gul was right to use his presidential pardon to lift
Erbakan’s sentence, 54.6 percent said he was right in doing so;
33.7 percent said he was wrong, and 11.8 percent said they had no idea.

To justify his pardon, Gul cited a report prepared by the
forensic medicine administration showing that Erbakan’s health was
deteriorating. Erbakan, the former leader of the now-defunct Welfare
Party (RP), was sentenced to two years and four months behind bars in
a lawsuit known as the "lost trillion" case, but was able to postpone
serving his sentence by submitting medical reports to the court. The
lost trillion case concerns the disappearance of more than 1 trillion
Turkish lira in Treasury grants to the RP.

Asked whether Gul should go to Yerevan to attend a soccer match between
the Turkish and Armenian national teams upon an invitation from his
Armenian counterpart, Serzh Sarksyan, 67.4 percent of those polled said
he should go and 22.9 percent said he should not accept the invitation.

Sarksyan had previously invited Gul to watch the Sept. 6 World Cup
qualifying match between the Turkish and Armenian national teams in
Yerevan, with which Ankara does not have any official relations.

Officials from the CHP and the MHP have been extremely critical
of the prospect of a possible visit to Armenia by Gul. They say
a visit to Yerevan would mean alienating Azerbaijan, which is of
vital importance to Turkey on many fronts. Turkey was among the first
countries to recognize Armenia’s independence, but closed its border
with the latter and severed formal ties with Yerevan after Armenia
occupied Nagorno-Karabakh.

A considerable majority of poll respondents also said Gul was honest
and trustworthy, a strong and decisive leader, a good statesman,
attached importance to the country’s problems and expectations of
the people, represented Turkey with success, was democratic and
pro-freedom and had the characteristics of a leader.

Support for EU membership on the rise

The survey also has found a clear majority of Turkish society supports
Turkey’s bid to join the European Union. Public support for Turkish
EU membership has shown a considerable increase since the survey
conducted in August.

In response to a question on whether they would vote for or against
Turkey’s EU membership if there were a referendum today, 69.1 percent
said they would vote "yes," while 23.7 percent said they would vote
against it. In the previous survey, 28 percent of those polled were
against EU membership while 66.2 percent supported it.

When asked what they thought about political party closures in Turkey,
40.9 percent of those polled said political parties should only be shut
down if they resort to violence or call for violence in the country;
37.4 percent said parties should not be disbanded under any condition,
and 16.9 percent said existing legal provisions about political party
closures in Turkey should remain untouched.

In response to a question over whether the pro-Kurdish Democratic
Society Party (DTP) should be shut down, 57.6 percent said it should
remain open; 31.2 percent said it should be closed, and 11.3 percent
said they had no idea.

A closure case was filed against the DTP last year by a state
prosecutor on the grounds that it had become a focal point for
separatist activities.

Another question directed at respondents was about the government’s
plan to launch Kurdish broadcasts through the state-owned Turkish Radio
and Television Corporation (TRT). Asked what they thought of the plan,
43.7 percent said: "I see the plan positively. Having a Kurdish TV
station will improve Turkish democracy." But 51.8 percent said:
"I see it negatively. Having a Kurdish TV station will increase
separatist activities."

In response to a question over whom the respondents admired most
among living statesmen and politicians, 33.3 percent said they admire
Prime Minister Erdogan, followed by President Gul (14.7) and former
President Sezer (5.1).

Asked which of the existing political party leaders they trusted most,
51.9 percent of the respondents said they trusted Erdogan the most,
followed by CHP leader Deniz Baykal (4.2) and MHP leader Devlet Bahceli
(4.2).

The telephone poll was conducted Aug. 29-31 among a random national
sampling of 1,251 adults residing in cities, towns and villages. The
margin of error for the full poll is 2.8 percentage points, at a 95
percent confidence level.

GUL’S YEREVAN VISIT WELCOMED BY ALL BUT EXTREMISTS, OPPOSITION

Today’s Zaman
Sept 4 2008
Turkey

A considerable number of columnists in the mainstream Turkish media
have welcomed a probable visit on Saturday by President Abdullah
Gul to Yerevan at the invitation of his Armenian counterpart, Serzh
Sarksyan, to watch the World Cup qualifying game between the two
countries’ national soccer teams, while extremist newspapers and
opposition parties openly criticized the visit, saying it would harm
Turkey’s image.

Yet, without any direct references to it, the visit has also gained
backing from Turkey’s NATO ally, the United States.

The White House, commenting on a telephone conversation between US
President George W. Bush and Gul, touched upon the recent thaw in
relations between the two estranged neighbors.

The main focus of the conversation between Gul and Bush was Georgia
and the Caucasus in general. The two underlined the importance of
full compliance with a six-point European Union-brokered cease-fire
agreement, Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the US’s National Security
Council, said on Tuesday. "The two leaders also talked about their
support for efforts to improve Turkish-Armenian relations and the
growing Turkish-Iraqi relationship," Johndroe said.

In Ankara, the Cankaya presidential palace said Gul had informed Bush
about Ankara’s initiative for establishing a Caucasus Stability and
Cooperation Platform. Proposed as a mechanism to develop conflict
resolution methods among the Caucasus countries, the platform is
planned to be made up of Turkey, Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and
Armenia.

In Yerevan, Ambassador Unal Ceviköz, the deputy undersecretary of the
Foreign Ministry, met Sarksyan and Armenian Foreign Minister Edward
Nalbandian to discuss arrangements for Gul’s visit, according to the
Armenian Foreign Ministry.

Almost all Turkish dailies yesterday covered the issue — some
with news articles and some in columns. The Sabah daily quoted
Turkish national team coach Fatih Terim as saying, "This is just a
football match, not a war," while the ultra-secularist Cumhuriyet
daily preferred to quote a retired ambassador as saying it is the
"wrong timing for a visit."

Pro-business Hurriyet on its front page covered a call by the Turkish
Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association (TUSÄ°AD) encouraging Gul
to pay the expected visit, while Star daily quoted Samson Ozararat,
who in the 1990s arranged a meeting between the late Alpaslan TurkeÅ~_
and former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosian. "It will be a big
step even if they just sit and watch the match," Ozararat was quoted
as saying by Star.

Mustafa Karaalioglu, editor-in-chief of Star daily, wrote in his
column yesterday that Gul’s apparent decision to go to Yerevan is
"an appropriate and delayed decision."

Turkey should get rid of its taboos, both inside and outside of the
country, Karaalioglu wrote in his column, the title of which said
"Gul must go … just as Sezer, Demirel and Ozal should have gone,"
listing names of former presidents and saying such a move should have
come much earlier than now.

In Yerevan, Ter-Petrosian, now top leader of the Armenian National
Congress (HAK), which is the country’s main opposition force, said
he would welcome Gul’s visit. Ter-Petrosian, who has long championed
a Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, said the match offered a good reason
for thawing bilateral relations. Meanwhile, the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) rallied several thousand supporters in
Yerevan on Tuesday to oppose the visit and pledged to hold more such
demonstrations during Gul’s expected visit.

–Boundary_(ID_/1Wuh290qsLMw3YHYwvtvA)–

ARMENIAN TEAM CHANGES EMBLEM BEFORE TURKEY MATCH

Today’s Zaman
Sept 4 2008
Turkey

The Armenian national soccer team, poised to play against Turkey in
a World Cup qualifying game on Saturday, will be using a new emblem
featuring the figures of a tiger and a lion instead of a silhouette
of Mount Agrı, also known as Mount Ararat, in eastern Turkey.

Turkey and Armenia have had no formal ties since 1993. One of the
conditions Ankara expects Yerevan to fulfill for normalization
of relations is formal recognition of the current border with
Turkey. Turkish decision-makers are concerned that the Armenian
administration has claims on Turkish territory, and the depiction
of Mount Agrı on the Armenian national team emblem is seen as a
sign of Armenia’s desire to claim a piece of eastern Turkey. The
Armenian Constitution describes Mount Agrı as a "state symbol,"
and Armenia’s declaration of independence mentions eastern Turkey as
"Western Armenia."

The new emblem of the Armenian national team was introduced to the
public at a press conference in Yerevan on Wednesday. Speaking at
the briefing Armenian Football Federation Chairman Ruben Hayrapetyan
said the change of emblem was due to a demand to that effect from
football fan associations, noting that the previous emblem was not
popular among national team fans. An Armenian official in Yerevan
told Today’s Zaman that the emblem had been changed a month ago and
that the new emblem will be used for the first time in the World Cup
qualifying match against Turkey. He denied, however, any link between
the change and the game against Turkey.

Although officials dismiss a connection between the new emblem and
the upcoming match, the change is likely to be considered a good
will gesture by the Armenian side. Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan
invited his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, to watch the game
in Yerevan. Gul has not said yet whether he would attend, but he is
widely expected to accept the invitation.

–Boundary_(ID_Z9x54ux47WHthCHvNgAYVQ )–

Video Reveals Link Between Ergenekon And Sabanca± Murder

Today’s Zaman
Sept 4 2008
Turkey

A video recording has revealed that Gen. Veli Kucuk, the suspected
leader of the political crime gang known as Ergenekon, might be behind
the murder of businessman Ozdemir Sabancı.

The chief prosecutor in the Ergenekon investigation, Zekeriya Oz,
received a CD containing a video of an October 2000 prison rebellion
in UÅ~_ak, instigated by brothers Nuri and Vedat Ergin. In the video,
apparently taken by somebody inside the prison, Nuri Ergin shouts:
"The state had me murder Mustafa Duyar [suspected of assassinating
Sabancı]. I killed him."

Then Vedat Ergin appears in another window with a gun in one hand,
shouting: "Call brother Veli. Tell him about me. I am not saying
anything else. God be with you."

Apparently both Nuri and Vedat Ergin spoke to the camera, but who took
the video is not known since no television cameras could approach
the building during the rebellion. Oz took testimonies of the Ergin
brothers, both of whom are still serving time in prison.

Top Turkish businessman Sabancı was shot dead in his high-security
office on Jan. 9, 1996. The Revolutionary People’s Liberation
Party/Front (DHKP/C) claimed responsibility for the murder. Duyar,
a suspect in the murder, surrendered himself a year later and was
put in Afyon prison. He was killed in prison in 1999.

The Ergenekon indictment, however, said the assassination was not
solely perpetrated by the organization. It stated that Duyar, Fehriye
Erdal and Ä°smail Akkol (the perpetrators of the assassination) were
noted in a document that was prepared eight days before the shooting
and later seized during a police raid at the ultranationalist and
anti-European Union weekly Aydınlık. The indictment said it would
be impossible to turn a blind eye to the link between the document,
the Sabancı assassination and Ergenekon. The indictment also noted
that Kucuk, believed to be one of the masterminds of the network,
had threatened Dink, the Turkish-Armenian journalist slain by a
teenager in 2007, before his murder, a sign that Ergenekon could be
behind his death as well.

–Boundary_(ID_QzDD2+dOnEOyqBITbxUXBQ)–

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

US FLAGS DEEP INTEREST IN EX-SOVIET COUNTRIES

Peninsula On-line
Sept 4 2008
Qatar

Baku// The United States and Russia squared off over the Caucasus and
Central Asia yesterday as US Vice President Dick Cheney said Washington
had an "abiding" interest in vital regions once dominated by Moscow.

Speaking in the oil-rich former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan, Cheney
said: "President Bush has sent me here with the clear and simple
message for the people of Azerbaijan and the entire region. "The
United States has a deep and abiding interest in your well-being
and security."

Cheney said access to energy resources there and in Central Asia was
a top concern for Washington.

"Energy security is essential to us all and the matter is becoming
increasingly urgent," Cheney said after meeting Azerbaijani President
Ilham Aliyev. "We must work with Azerbaijan and other countries in the
Caucasus and Central Asia on additional routes for energy exports,"
he said.

Cheney’s comments came a day after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin sealed a new gas pipeline deal in Uzbekistan.

They were a clear signal that Washington did not intend to allow
Moscow to regain the unchallenged control over the politics and
natural resources of the Caucasus and Central Asian regions.

Cheney was due to travel today to Georgia for a meeting with that
country’s beleaguered, US-backed President Mikheil Saakashvili.

The head of Russia’s powerful presidential Security Council criticized
Cheney’s tour, saying his real goal was to trade US support for
energy supplies in the region, and to make sure these countries had
governments sympathetic to Washington.

"Cheney, during his visits to Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine, will
try to instill in them confidence that they will receive support of
the US, and (he) will do it in such a way that the US will continue
to wield influence on them," Nikolai Patrushev said during a visit
to neighbouring Armenia.

The US Embassy in Baku said Cheney yesterday met with local
representatives of British Petroleum and Chevron who briefed him on
their "assessments of the energy situation in Azerbaijan and the
broader Caspian region — especially in light of Russia’s recent
military actions in Georgia."

TURKISH LEADER’S PLANNED VISIT TO ARMENIA FUELS CONTROVERSY

AzerNews Weekly
Sept 3 2008
Azerbaijan

Turkish President Abdullah Gul is likely to visit Armenia at his
counterpart Serzh Sarkisian`s invitation in the coming days, reports
say, despite the lack of formal confirmation by Ankara.

Turkish officials stopped short of confirming the reports, though
Foreign Minister Ali Babacan said a group of diplomats is due to
leave Turkey for Yerevan shortly. The delegation will be headed by
the Foreign Ministry`s deputy undersecretary and Turkey`s former
ambassador in Baku, Unal Cevikoz.

President Sarkisian has invited his Turkish counterpart to attend a
2010 World Cup qualifying football match between the two countries`
national teams in Yerevan on Saturday. Yerevan sees the visit as a
good chance to forge ties between Armenia and Turkey.

The diplomats are to hold talks with Armenian officials on President
Gul`s planned visit as well as Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan`s recent proposal to set up a five-nation union called the
Caucasus Peace and Cooperation Platform, which followed a brief
war between Russia and Georgia last month. Turkey has already held
preliminary talks on the issue with Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Turkish officials have held secret meetings with their Armenian
counterparts in the past. In July, Cevikoz headed a delegation of
Foreign Ministry officials that held talks in Bern, Switzerland for
several days.

President Sarkisian is expected to receive the Turkish delegation,
reports say. During the meeting, the Turkish leader`s message will
be conveyed to the Armenian president. Additionally, Ankara will
underscore that good chances are emerging to defuse tension in
the volatile Caucasus region. Cevikoz is also expected to invite
Sarkisian to attend a football match between the two countries`
teams due in Istanbul.

Turkish officials insisted that no final decision has been passed on
the visit to Armenia. President Gul said Monday he had not decided yet
if he would visit Yerevan. Foreign Minister Babacan confirmed this
but added: "If the visit takes place, this will be done not because
Turkey is under pressure to do so, but in order to contribute to
peace and stability in the region."

Turkish media reported that Ankara has laid out five pre-conditions to
Yerevan for the visit to be materialized. Akhsham newspaper said the
demands include ensuring that no public protests will be held during
the visit and security will be properly provided. Turkish analysts
say that President Gul`s visit will not be announced until the last
minute given the tremendous importance of security.

Omer Lutem, head of the Armenian studies department at the Turkey-based
Eurasia Strategic Research Center, has told Radio Liberty that Ankara
has not specified the date and program of the visit in order not to
add an official nature to the visit.

According to Turkish newspapers, Gul is due to hold a brief meeting
with Sarkisian at the airport upon arrival, after which the two are
to head to the Razdan stadium to watch the football game.

Gul`s visit to Armenia has drawn divergent responses at
home. Opposition leader Deniz Baykal, who chairs Turkey`s Republican
People`s Party (CHP), said he would "favor going to Baku to watch the
match, not Yerevan." Meanwhile, 30 parliament members representing
Turkey`s ruling Justice and Development Party (JDP) have asked the
party leadership to grant permission for their trip to Yerevan to
watch the match. However, the party declined the request at its broad
meeting on Tuesday.

Omer Lutem said while commenting on the Turkish president`s planned
visit that his setting foot on Armenian soil would not solve all
outstanding problems between the two neighboring countries "but would
open a door for negotiations."

Lutem said the problems between Turkey and Armenia are
three-fold. First of all, Armenia is lobbying for Ankara`s recognition
of the Armenian genocide that allegedly happened in Ottoman Turkey
in the early 20th century. Secondly, the South Caucasus republic,
which has been independent for over a decade, has not yet formally
recognized Turkey`s territorial integrity and levels territorial
claims against its neighbor. Thirdly, Ankara calls on Yerevan to end
its policy of occupation against Azerbaijan.

The border between Armenia and Turkey has been closed since 1993.

Hrayr Tamrazian, head of Radio Liberty`s Armenia service, says that
Armenian nationalist Dashnaktsutyun party has announced it would hold
a peaceful rally in the capital on the day the football match will
be held. The party opposes establishing relations with Turkey due to
the differences over the alleged genocide and a territorial dispute.

Although Azerbaijan`s government has yet to formally respond to
President Gul`s intended visit, Azeris living in fraternal Turkey
have launched protests.

Azeri Turks living in the city of Izmir and adjacent regions are
against any dialog between Turkey and Armenia and have conducted a
signature collection campaign to counter this. The very first day of
the campaign was marked by activeness, with Turks joining the efforts
of Azeris. The document they have prepared will be submitted to the
Turkish government soon. It says that any cooperation with Armenia
is out of the question until it withdraws its armed forces from the
occupied territories of Azerbaijan and relinquishes its baseless
claims against Turkey.

"On the contrary, we should make an effort to protect and further
develop the historic friendship between Turkey and Azerbaijan,"
it said.

LAVROV RULES OUT GEORGIAN SCENARIO IN GARABAGH

AzerNews Weekly
Sept 3 2008
Azerbaijan

Russia`s recognition, early last week, of the independence of Georgia`s
rebel regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia has turned up regional
pressures due to the potential consequences of regional independence
movements flaring elsewhere within former Soviet republics. The
concerns are valid, given that Moscow`s actions evidently serves to
prop up aggressive separatism and further the attempts to forcefully
redraw the borders of states, not only in the ex-Soviet territories
but throughout the world.

Western observers, who harshly criticized Russia`s decision, say the
encroachment on Georgia`s territorial integrity may signal a dangerous
scenario for other countries that include separatist regions.

The issue came to the fore during British Foreign Secretary David
Miliband`s visit to Ukraine last week. Miliband stressed the need
for rallying a broad international coalition against Moscow, warning
that, otherwise, Russia would eventually seek full control over other
conflict zones within the former USSR. Miliband said, after meeting
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vladimir Ogryzko, that the two countries
would be at the forefront of such a coalition, which will support
Georgia`s territorial integrity and counter Russia`s aggressive
actions. The foreign secretary said the outbreak of a fresh Cold War
does not benefit anyone, and Russia should alter its policy if it
aspires to gain international respect and influence.

"The former Soviet empire should be left behind and negotiated
solutions found to the conflicts in post-Soviet territories, including
those over Upper (Nagorno) Garabagh [between Azerbaijan and Armenia]
and Dnestr in Moldova," Miliband said.

Commenting on the statement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
tried to ease his British counterpart`s concerns. He said the situation
in Abkhazia and South Ossetia was the result of the Georgian leaders`
unwise policy, while the situation with the Garabagh and Dnestr
disputes was completely different.

"The Dnestr and Garabagh conflicts will not unfold in a scenario
applied in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as it is not [Georgian
President] Mikheil Saakashvili who is holding talks on settling
them. In Moldova and Azerbaijan, there are no leaders who have lost
their minds like Saakashvili and are seeking to resolve conflicts
by force, while destroying their countries. That`s exactly what the
Georgian leadership did in Abkhazia and South Ossetia," Lavrov said.

It appears that Russia is trying to assure Azerbaijan and Moldova,
which have been fighting aggressive separatism along with Georgia,
that it has no intention to encroach on their territorial integrity and
recognize the independence of Upper Garabagh and Dnestr. It is evident,
however, that the Russian foreign minister`s statement stems not from
efforts to diminish these concerns, but from the "breakup and rule"
policy inherent to empires. In other words, Moscow is attempting
to distance Azerbaijan and Moldova from Georgia and to counter these
countries` joint steps within the regional group, GUAM and, as a whole,
the international arena.

In reality, Russia`s plans to split up Georgia are likely to take a
toll on other countries suffering from separatist threats. It is not
by mere chance that President Medvedev`s decision to recognize Abkhazia
and South Ossetia as independent states has been praised by separatists
in Upper Garabagh, an Azeri region under Armenian occupation.

"This decision is in full compliance with the principles of
international law on self-determination of nations," the separatist
regime claimed in a statement. "We hope that forces interested in
restoring peace in the region will draw a conclusion from the latest
developments in the South Caucasus and take practical steps at finding
a solution to conflicts strictly by peaceful means."

Meanwhile, a group of Armenian pro-government and non-governmental
organizations demanded that their government recognize the
"independence" of Upper Garabagh.

The appeal branded Georgia`s assault on the pro-Russian region of
South Ossetia earlier this month as "a military aggression." Based
upon that, the Armenian groups maintain that there are no prospects
for a negotiated resolution of "frozen" conflicts in the South
Caucasus region. They alleged that Tbilisi and Baku, by intentionally
prolonging the settlement process, are taking advantage of it to
purchase armaments and strengthen their armies.

Georgia launched large-scale military operations on August 8 in South
Ossetia to restore its territorial integrity. Moscow retaliated by
sending troops to the region, striking at Georgian armed forces with
overwhelming force. Georgian forces had gained control over the capital
of the breakaway province, Tskhinvali, but had to retreat a day later
after a Russian attack. An EU-brokered ceasefire was, subsequently,
reached on August 17 to end the brief war. It envisions the return
of both countries` troops to the positions they held prior to the
outbreak of hostilities. Russia pulled most of its troops from Georgia
on August 22 but continued to build up its forces in and around the
two separatist regions after withdrawing from deep inside Georgia.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress