RUSSIA TALKS TOUGH, BUT IS MOSCOW SWAYING OPINION ON GEORGIA?
Sergei Blagov
EurasiaNet
Sept 8 2008
NY
Russia has long sought to establish an organization that could
act as a geopolitical counterbalance to the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization. In the aftermath of its most recent summit, it is clear
that Moscow is pinning much of its hopes on the Collective Security
Treaty Organization. Whether the grouping of six formerly Soviet
republics is ready to fulfill Russia’s expectations remains an open
question, however.
CSTO leaders issued a statement following the group’s September
5 summit in Moscow that largely supported Russia’s version of
the conflict in Georgia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. At the same time, to the Kremlin’s frustration, CSTO states
refrained from endorsing Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia’s and South
Ossetia’s independence.
Despite the diplomatic disappointment surrounding the independence
issue, Russia received something more important from the CSTO, which
includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan
and Uzbekistan. The group’s statement came out forcefully against
the further eastward expansion of NATO. In effect, the group warned
the United States and European Union that there would be trouble if
the West tried to follow-up on its long-stated commitment to bring
Georgia and Ukraine into NATO’s fold.
"The serious potential for conflict is accumulating in the direct
vicinity of the CSTO’s zone of responsibility," the statement
said. "The member states of the CSTO call on NATO to weigh all the
possible consequences of expanding the alliance to the East."
Russia followed up on its CSTO success with an announcement that
Russian forces would withdraw from Georgia proper following the
deployment of an international peacekeeping force in and around
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev worked out the preliminary
withdrawal agreement during September 8 talks with French President
Nicolas Sarkozy.
If the new plan proceeds as originally envisioned, a
peacekeeping/monitoring force would be deployed in the conflict
zone no later than October 1. The withdrawal of Russian troops from
checkpoints set up on Georgian territory would commence within 10
days after the monitors were in place. The United States and some EU
member states have accused Moscow of violating a six-point ceasefire
plan that was brokered in August. On September 7, however, French
Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner provided Moscow with a face-saving
way to move forward with the latest arrangement negotiated by Sarkozy
and Medvedev. Kouchner attributed the differences surrounding the
six-point plan to a translation error.
According to a report distributed by the Interfax news agency, Medvedev
was vague when it came to the details of the new plan. He specifically
avoided giving precise information concerning the composition and
size of the monitoring contingent, saying only that it would include
200 EU representatives. There appeared to be a possibility that the
new force could comprise a majority of Russian peacekeepers.
In announcing the new preliminary plan, Medvedev kept up a steady
drumbeat of anti-Georgia and anti-American rhetoric. He assailed
Washington for supposedly encouraging Tbilisi to open a military
offensive against South Ossetia. He went on to accuse Georgian
President Mikheil Saakashvili of taking "idiotic action," according
to a report distributed by the Komsomolskaya Pravda website.
"Now all of Georgia is paying for it," Medvedev continued. "It is
one of the examples of decisions based on a unipolar world, when
one is sure that there is someone behind him, who will help if one
doesn’t have enough strength. It will not work – one should behave,
act under international law. Then everything will be fine. This
is why I believe it is very important to develop new approaches to
international security."
The new approach referred to by Medvedev would seem to be the
CSTO. Following the group’s summit, Medvedev urged stronger foreign
policy coordination among member states, and suggested that the
organization’s "military element" be strengthened. "The Organization
evidently has its rights and duties, including issues of self-defense
[and the] liquidation of consequences of armed conflicts," he
said. In connection with the Russian desire for the CSTO to beef up
its strategic capacity, the organization announced a comprehensive
military modernization plan.
Immediately following the CSTO summit, Medvedev issued a statement
that was Cold War-like in tone, insisting that member states would
guarantee their own territorial integrity and non-interference in
their internal affairs. But he conceded that it would be up to each
individual CSTO member to decide whether or not to recognize South
Ossetia and Abkhazia or not.
Russia’s Cold War-like rhetoric was again on display on September
8. Russia’s ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, announced that Moscow
would sever all ties with the Atlantic alliance if the Brussels-based
organization ever offered Georgia a Membership Action Plan, which
is a precursor to full membership. Russia also announced that it
would engage in some gun-boat diplomacy of its own by sending a
naval task force to the Caribbean Sea for joint exercises with the
Venezuelan navy.
While Russia has succeeded in recent days in fostering an aura of
strength in its dealings with the United States and EU, some Russian
commentators continue to wonder whether Russia can win the public
relations battle that is now raging over Georgia.
"We [Russia] are struggling with the world for the recognition of
our actions in Georgia. Success has so far only been achieved on the
linguistic level: condemnation is a strong political gesture, but
it does not oblige anyone to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia,"
wrote political analyst Aleksandr Samarin in a September 8 commentary
published by Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "On the other hand, the EU decided
not to impose sanctions on Russia for now. We ignore ‘for now’ and
stress ‘not to impose.’"
Other media outlets have expressed doubt over whether Moscow can
realize its CSTO ambitions. The CSTO nations denounced Georgia, but
they are not prepared to follow Russia till the "victorious end,"
noted one commentary published by Moskovsky Komsomolets.
Editor’s Note: Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS
political affairs.