La Vanguardia , Spain
Aug 14 2008
Situation in South Ossetia "potentially explosive"
[Editorial by F. de Carreras: "Sorcerer’s Apprentices"]
At dawn last Thursday, Georgian troops launched a brutal and
unexpected land and air attack on Tskhinvali, the capital of South
Ossetia. A few hours later, Russia counterattacked with all its
military might. Shortly afterward Abkhazia went to Ossetia’s defence,
confronting Georgia. The Russian troops easily took control of the
situation in Ossetia. They crossed the border into Georgia and
harassed Gori, the country’s second city, which is very close to
Tbilisi, the capital. In the face of such a forceful reaction, Georgia
declared a ceasefire, but Russia continued its "preventative"
penetration into Georgian territory until it had secured its
rear-guard positions. Shortly before receiving French President
Sarkozy, currently serving as EU president, in Moscow, Russia also
declared a ceasefire through a provisional truce.
Georgia’s unexpected attack on South Ossetia occurred just at the
beginning of the "Olympic peace." On Friday, just hours after the
fighting began, Putin and Bush hardly knew what to say to each other
when they were together in Beijing at the spectacular opening of the
Olympic Games. Nevertheless it is quite improbable that the decision
for Georgia to attack South Ossetia was made independently by the
foolish President Saakashvili, a faithful pawn of Bush’s in the
region.
Although analyses of the attack are not yet clear, everything
indicates that the purpose was to test how Russia would respond to a
provocation in the Caucasus region after having lost its influence in
the Balkans. What was demonstrated is that the Russia of Putin and
Medvedev is not the Russia of Yeltsin. Their current reaction
capability and political intelligence in defence of their own specific
interests is much better. What is most likely is that the attack has
to do with Bush’s latest foreign policy mistake and with the first
positive action by the European Union, an action that was also brave
and autonomous. This was the time for the EU to start asserting itself
in an area where it should be exercising influence.
At any rate, despite the truce, the Caucasus region is potentially
explosive. Let us examine some historical aspects that will help to
understand the situation.
The Ossetians are a Caucasian people, ethnically different from the
Georgians, who have traditionally had good relations with Russia. They
have enjoyed autonomy since the time of the czars. With the
independence of Georgia after the disintegration of the USSR in 1991,
South Ossetia – North Ossetia is part of Russia as an autonomous
province – remained an enclave in Georgian territory. This situation
provoked a military conflict that ended in a precarious agreement by
which South Ossetia became a de facto independent territory of Georgia
under Russia’s protection. The Abkhazians, also located within
Georgian territory but ethnically different from Georgians in addition
to being Muslims, found themselves in a similar position, which helped
widen Russia’s narrow strip of access to the Black Sea which remained
after Ukraine got its independence.
In addition to all this, since 2006, the only pipeline carrying oil
from the deposits near the Caspian Sea north of Iraq and the former
Soviet republics north of Afghanistan that does not pass through
Russia has crossed Georgian territory. For that reason, Georgia has
become an enclave that is strategic for Western control of oil in that
region. At the NATO summit last April, Georgia and Ukraine were
candidates to join the Alliance. Because of pressure from Russia they
were not admitted.
Up to now Russia has not forced the issue of independence for South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, leaving them in an uncertain legal limbo of de
facto independence. Nevertheless, the Russian foreign minister
announced last winter that the recognition of Kosovo as an independent
state would have implications on the situation of South Ossetia and
other territories in the Ca ucasus.
After the military activity of the last few days, some observers have
asked, "Why yes to Kosovo and no to South Ossetia and Abkhazia? The
legal precedents involving several breaches of international law in
the Balkans comprise another factor in the conflict. Also keep in mind
that other countries in the region – Daguestan, Chechnyia, Ingusetia,
Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia – are also notorious centres of
instability. In this sense the Balkans are a minor theme in comparison
to the Caucasus region.
Thus the ingredients of conflict are all present: ethnicity,
religions, nationalism to excite the people; oil and energy policy as
real economic factors; Russia’s outlet to the Black Sea and limits to
the area controlled by NATO as basic geostrategic factors; proximity
to war zones (Afghanistan and Iraq) or of conflict (Iran and the
Middle East ) as centres of military interest. Therefore to play with
war in the Caucasus region is to play with fire. We hope these brief
and tragic days have served as a lesson to certain sorcerer’s
apprentices.
[translated from Spanish]