AZERBAIJAN: BAKU EYES GEORGIA VIOLENCE WITH CAUTION
Shahin Abbasov
Institute for War and Peace Reporting
8/14/08
UK
EURASIA INSIGHT
Public sentiment in Azerbaijan is clearly on the side of neighboring
Georgia, but the Azerbaijani government is treading lightly, not
wanting to do or say anything that might provoke Russia. Baku,
which is intent on recovering its own separatist territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh, is concerned about how the fighting in Georgia
will impact the fates of Georgia’s break-away entities of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Azerbaijani leaders and energy executives are also
trying to play it safe concerning oil and natural gas pipelines that
cross Georgian territory.
With Russian troops and armor remaining in Georgia proper, the
signs are mounting that Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be formally
partitioned from Georgia, and perhaps even annexed by Russia. From
Baku’s perspective that would be a dire development. Khazar Ibrahim,
an Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry spokesperson, has spoken repeatedly in
favour of maintaining the status quo. "We support Georgia’s territorial
integrity and the restoration of the peace process," Ibrahim said at
a press briefing in Baku on August 11.
Beyond the territorial question, the Azerbaijani government has
refrained from commenting on the violence in Georgia, either about
Georgia’s actions in sending troops into the South Ossetian capital
of Tskhinvali, or the massive Russian response. Officials strike a
neutral tone, not going beyond statements of support for international
efforts to broker a ceasefire in Georgia.
Ibrahim also said that Baku had no intention of seeking a change to
the current structure of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is oversees
the Karabakh peace process. Russia is one of the Minsk Group
co-chairs. "Russia will stay as [a co-chair] of the Minsk Group,"
he said.
Opposition leaders in Baku, meanwhile, have been outspoken in their
condemnation of the Kremlin’s behavior. "Georgia is being punished
for its NATO aspirations and its democratic choice," said Sulhaddin
Akper, a leader of the Musavat Party. He urged swift action by the
United States and NATO to bolster Georgia.
Over the past few days, various public groups, youth organizations
and individuals have participated in rallies outside the Russian
Embassy in Baku in support of Georgians. Some attendees at a recent
rally carried placards with slogans such as "Stop Russian Aggression,"
and "Russia: Get Out of The Caucasus." Local media commentaries have
tended to be critical of the Russian military actions.
On a practical level, Azerbaijan has become a destination for
foreigners seeking to flee the fighting. Ibrahim, the Azerbaijani
diplomat, put the number of foreigners trying to cross the border in
the hundreds. "These people receive all possible support," he said.
The economic impact on Azerbaijan of the Russian incursion into Georgia
is a source of concern in Baku. Some officials privately worry that
recent developments in Georgia are troubling for Azerbaijan’s energy
independence.
Shipments of oil and natural gas via pipelines connecting Azerbaijan
to Turkey via Georgia have been suspended. A statement issued by
the energy giant BP said the pipelines have not been damaged, adding
that energy flows will remain suspended until the "the situation in
Georgia normalizes." Oil flows via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
stopped even before the outbreak of the Georgian-Russian conflict,
due to an explosion at a compressor station in Turkey. Azerbaijan’s
state energy entity, SOCAR, also announced that it has temporarily
halted oil deliveries to Georgia.
Production at oil and gas fields in Azerbaijan has been impacted
by the Georgia conflict, but state officials and energy consortium
representatives have not specified the current volume of production.