The FINANCIAL, Georgia
Aug 9 2008
Losers is South Ossetian Conflict are pro-Westerners in Ukraine,
Moldova, Balts and Europe
STRATFOR
09/08/2008 22:12
The winners in the developments in South Ossetia are the
Transdneisters, Abkhaz, pro-Russian Ukrainian s and NKs, Eurasia
analyst of Stratfor Lauren Goodrich said in exclusive interview with
APA Azeri news agency.
"Now that Russia is obviously in charge in Georgia, I don’t see how
the Government of Azerbaijan has a precedence to do something in
NK. This should also worry Azerbaijan and Armenia to do anything
without explicit approval of the Russians now. Russia has once again
proved its strength and there are quite a few winners and losers in
the situation. The winners are the Transdneisters, Abkhaz, pro-Russian
Ukrainian s and NKs, because they will be proud of Russia
re-establishing its credibility as a security guarantor. Of course the
so-called losers are pro-Westerners in Ukraine , Moldova, Balts and
Europe", analyst said.
"Armenia and Azerbaijan are a different situation than everyone
else. They have a small region (NK) that may feel empowered by
this. But to be honest, Russia doesn’t see NK as they do South Ossetia
and they sure as hell can’t support them in the same way. And Armenia
will not act without Russian consent. They know it is a suicide
mission without the Russians and MOSCOW is now pre-occupied with other
matters".
"As far as the big organizations like the UN & OSCE… I’m sure
they’ll hold some nice meetings and release some "strong statements
and warnings"…. you know I don’t believe in the power of those
groups when it comes to things like this. Russia and the US are
talking today, Russia and China are talking tomorrow and Russia and
Germany are talking later this week all on head-of-state level… This
is where the important meetings are and decisions will be made",
Lauren Goodrich said.