Zaman Online, Turkey
July 20 2008
Turkey fears for Ä°ncirlik’s status after US-Iraq deal
Turkey is concerned that once the US strikes a deal with neighboring
Iraq regarding the maintenance of a US military presence in the
country in 2009 and beyond, this will lessen the importance of its
Ä°ncirlik air base in the southern part of the country in
particular and its geo-strategic importance in general.
The US has already started building military facilities both in
Romania and in Bulgaria, Turkey’s neighbors with coasts on the Black
Sea, under bilateral access and training agreements signed with
Romania in 2005 and Bulgaria in 2006. Those agreements will provide a
platform for other fellow NATO member countries — mainly the US — in
their engagement in the eastern Mediterranean as well as in the
Caucasus and in Central Asia, areas that also fall under Turkey’s
close scrutiny.
Currently Ä°ncirlik is used by allied forces in neighboring Iraq
as well as in Afghanistan for overflights (not for combat purposes),
while being utilized as a cargo hub, particularly by the US.
"Turkey has been the last country which has provided overflight
permission to its close ally the US," recalled one Western diplomat,
speaking to Sunday’s Zaman. "Since Turkish Parliament’s rejection of a
motion that would allow access to US troops for using Turkish soil in
March 2003, Ankara has proven that strategically it is an undependable
ally.
Coalition members and in particular the US do not know if permission,
for example, for overflights will be cut off at any time. Washington
does not know either whether Turkey will threaten to stop the US from
using Ä°ncirlik every time the Armenian genocide allegations of
the Ottoman Turks come up on the agenda," remarked the same source.
Every year in April, regarded as the commemoration of the alleged
genocide of Armenians, US diplomats make an effort to discourage the
US president from using the word genocide during their messages to
Armenians in order to avert possible negative reactions from Turkey.
For strategic planners, the predictability of the country regarding
deployment plans is of great importance, said another Western diplomat
in Ankara.
"Therefore, in the future the US will seek cooperation with Bulgaria
and Romania as well as with Iraq, negatively affecting the strategic
importance of Ä°ncirlik," he said.
Turkey has been following the ongoing negotiations between Iraq and
the US over the latter’s military presence in the former with the
concern that Baghdad, as the weaker party, may be trapped into a
losing deal; for example, one that allows US presence in the country
without being governed by strict regulations.
The Defense Cooperation Agreement (DECA) between Turkey and the US,
renewed in the 1980s, governs the US presence at Ä°ncirlik and
the parameters of the US in using this base, subjecting the US to
strict rules.
Turkey, for example, has the right to terminate the deal by simply
providing notice that it will do so.
However, Turkish diplomatic sources who spoke to Sunday’s Zaman are
confident that Iraq will make a deal that will have stricter
regulations rather than a deal allowing the US unlimited rights.
Meanwhile, Western military sources have stated their belief that
within a few years, as the demands of Iraq decline and new facilities
in Romania and Bulgaria are completed, these new facilities will prove
to be an important venue not only for training US and allied forces
but also as an ideal "engagement" location to support training and
operations further afield in central and southwest Asia, the Middle
East and the eastern Mediterranean.
Turkish rapprochement to Iraq to ease PKK tension
As Turkey has been closely observing a possible security deal to be
struck between the US and Iraq, Ankara has been increasing steps to
improve bilateral ties in all spheres with its southern neighbor,
though this rapprochement has come quite late, with a recent visit by
the Turkish prime minister to Iraq coming a full 18 years after the
last.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an paid a one-day visit to
Iraq on July 10, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with his
Iraqi counterpart, Nouri al Maliki, that also involves economic
integration.
Rapprochement between Turkey and Iraq will not only help the two
countries to cooperate against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK) terrorists active in northern Iraq but will also bring long-term
economic benefits, including Turkish involvement in Iraqi oil and gas
wealth, said a Turkish diplomat.
Turkey’s increased dialogue with Iraq as well as with the Iraqi
Kurdish administration will help reduce the PKK presence in northern
Iraq, which the terrorist group has been using as a staging ground for
attacks on Turkey.
But, as one Western military official recalled, the ability of Turkey
to resolve its decades-long Kurdish problem within the country will
play a major role in reducing the PKK’s violent activities.
One Turkish diplomat noted that after British political leadership
started dialogue with the political wing of the Irish Republican Army
(IRA), a significant amount of financial resources allocated by Irish
Americans and earmarked for the IRA that were critical in training and
sustaining its terrorists and in buying arms had been cut off.
"Then-British Prime Minister Tony Blair made a commitment to taking
political initiatives; then the US cut off the IRA’s financial
resources," a Turkish diplomatic source recalled. Similarly, he said,
if the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) is integrated with
the political system, both the West and the US will be encouraged in
taking more punitive measures against the PKK.
But the main concern is how far Turkey will be able to pursue its
foreign policy issues such as Iraq in view of the fact that the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AK Party) is facing a court case for
its closure while the Ergenekon operation, which has resulted in an
indictment of the criminal organization on charges of being involved
in terrorist activities to topple the government, has deepened the
political crisis in the country, said a Turkish diplomat.
20 July 2008, Sunday
LALE SARIÄ°BRAHÄ°MOÄ?LU ANKARA