VAFA QULUZADA: ‘RUSSIA WILL IRRITATE AZERBAIJAN BY CONTACTS WITH KARABAKH IN REVENGE FOR OUR PRO-WESTERN POLICY
Day.az
June 7 2008
Azerbaijan
Day.az has interviewed the political scientist and former state
adviser on foreign policy issues, Vafa Quluzada.
[Correspondent] Russian ambassador to Azerbaijan Vasiliy Istratov has
openly acknowledged Russia’s illegal agreement and cooperation with
one of the cities in Nagornyy Karabakh. Shortly before that, the press
reported that Russia claims two Azerbaijani villages bordering on
Russia. What do you think is behind all this: the unprofessionalism
of the Russian diplomat, if we are talking only about Istratov’s
statement, or Russia’s intention to develop a "Georgian scenario" with
regard to Azerbaijan, thus attempting to ignite separatism once again?
[Quluzada] This is a signal that Russia will toughen its attitude
towards Azerbaijan. Russia is furious because Azerbaijan continues its
pro-Western policy and Azerbaijan-NATO relations are strengthening
in the course of time and Moscow senses that this cooperation will
result in Azerbaijan’s accession to NATO.
Besides, Russia is embittered because Azerbaijan agreed to take part
in the Nabucco gas pipeline which will bypass Russian territory. As
you know, Russia has offered to buy all exported Azerbaijani gas,
but Azerbaijan rejected this proposal. The president of Turkmenistan
also declined to receive Gazprom’s chairman Miller, thus demonstrating
that Turkmenistan, together with Baku, will participate in the gas
transportation project bypassing Russia.
[Correspondent] What about Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev’s
expected visit to Azerbaijan on 3-4 July, which the [Azerbaijani]
head of state himself has assessed as an indication of a high level
of relations between the two countries?
[Quluzada] This is why Medvedev is planning to visit Azerbaijan and
then Turkmenistan.
Having achieved nothing, the Russians will certainly try to demonstrate
their negative attitude towards Azerbaijan by all means, using the
Nagornyy Karabakh conflict. They will establish cooperation between
Karabakh and various Russian cities, organize official and unofficial
visit to Karabakh and threaten Azerbaijan to repeat the Kosovo option
and to recognize Nagornyy Karabakh’s independence.
But I will say right away that Russia is not America. Russia will not
be able to grant Nagornyy Karabakh independence as the Americans did
for Kosovo, because Kosovo is on its way to the EU and NATO and is
receiving support from the biggest power – the United States, while
Russia itself is a developing country and is unable to do anything
for Armenia or Nagornyy Karabakh.
[Correspondent] Azerbaijan’s current relations with Russia are far from
what we observe between Moscow and Georgia. Why would the Russians
want to make new enemies by recognizing the separatist regime in
Nagornyy Karabakh?
[Quluzada] Russia will not do so, but will threaten us with this,
and this does not mean that they will ever recognize it. Moscow
will try to play with this factor and put political pressure on the
Azerbaijani leadership. However, the Azerbaijani leadership is quite
confident and will not give in to this pressure.
[Correspondent] Therefore, there is nothing to expect from the
first meeting between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents in
St Petersburg?
[Quluzada] This meeting did not yield any results because Armenia
and Nagornyy Karabakh are fully under Russia’s diktat.
I warned the Russians previously that they made their greatest mistake
by refusing to settle this conflict in 1994-1995, to withdraw the
Armenian forces from the occupied territories and to return Azerbaijani
refugees to their homes, since with the arrival of the Americans they
will lose a lot.