Yeni Musavat , Azerbaijan
June 4 2008
Ilham Aliyev has spoilt relations with the USA
Relations between the authorities and the West have reached a crisis point
President under pressure over Karabakh, democracy
We have already reported that the president of Azerbaijan has come
under pressure over the Nagornyy Karabakh problem. The latest
observations leave no doubts that the pressure has become
permanent. Reports from sources in the authorities show openly that
with the presidential election in the pipeline, the most of the
pressure comes from the USA. (By the way, Ilham Aliyev himself has not
denied this and is not about to do so). In this regard, the recent
behind-the-scene meeting between US Assistant Secretary of State [for
South and Central Asian Affairs] Richard Boucher and Aliyev in Baku is
said to be a proof. If we believe in a source claiming the meeting was
tense, the US representative laid down several specific conditions to
the Azerbaijani president.
The most important of them is to do with Karabakh. But apart from
this, it is said that Boucher remembered Aliyev about his pledges to
the USA before the 2003 presidential election. It is said that the
pledges were about democracy and Karabakh and that the White House
regretted that they were not honoured and the president was told that
Washington’s limit of expectation was over. Moreover, his attention
was drawn to the fact that it was problematic to rely on the US
support to win another election at the expense of empty pledges.
The following cases also show that the meeting proceeded in a strained
atmosphere. The source said that this time, the official of the White
House first of all demanded that Ilham Aliyev make real compromises on
the Karabakh issue to resolve the problem as soon as possible and he
even resorted to threats: he was warned that if Baku continues to
resist, then Azerbaijan may be excluded from international bodies as
well as from the Council of Europe. The most intriguing is that the
guest announced that bank accounts of odious figures in the West may
be frozen.
President against compromises
This followed by the interesting aspect of the matter. The response of
the Azerbaijan president to Boucher was unambiguous and curt: "I shall
not honour any of them!" The source also adds: "Taking advantage of
unbearable pressure on him over Nagornyy Karabakh, Ilham Aliyev
resists exactly at this point by uniting pressure related to
democratic [reforms] with this problem and is opposing both problems
in question. Actually, by turning down proposals of the West with
respect to Karabakh, he says no to democratic changes which may
endanger his rule. Consequently, he sends an open message to the
public that because of his refusal to hand Karabakh over to [Armenia],
he is brought under pressure on democracy platform. This statement
boils down to the fact that he is under pressure on democracy platform
because of his refusal to yield Karabakh. It also means that the
president of Azerbaijan says no to all the proposals of the West both
about Nagornyy Karabakh and democracy…[ellipses as published]" Our
newspaper learned this from diplomatic sources.
Azerbaijan urged to compromise
"Washington prefers to have the problem resolved at the expense of the
losing party and actually gain Armenia and sympathy of Armenians
through establishment of a second Armenian state. The USA thinks of
tearing Armenia away from Russia by handing Nagornyy Karabakh over to
Armenians," a pro-government MP who agreed to speak to us said.
Regrettably, due to objective reasons Azerbaijan is a weak chain in
this issue. Therefore, high expectations are placed on Ilham Aliyev
and wanted to make big compromises. On the other hand, the resolution
of the Karabakh issue in line with the desire of the USA, the
recognition of the separate body following the liberation of one or
two districts and the control of the border section with Iran by the
US peace-keepers are very important for the USA.
Another aspect complicating the situation is that though esteemed
Aliyev’s verbal declaration of his adherence to democratic values, in
fact, he is heading towards sabotaging the Western values in practice;
he has further toughened his regime as he considers democratic reforms
to be a danger to his rule under the current condition. In its turn,
this removes both the lasting stability from the agenda and serves to
the interests of neighbouring Iran and Russia.
It is not by chance that hawks as well as those pro-Moscow officials
in power have recently become active. (The reactionary Electoral Code
is undoubtedly their success first of all)
Washington wants Aliyev to share energy interests and common values
This also makes Washington anxious. America wants Ilham Aliyev to
share both energy interests and common values with the West. This is
seen as a possible way of distancing from Russia. Therefore, it is
both logical and real that Aliyev was reminded of his 2003 promises
ahead of the [October 2008] presidential election.
In our view, warnings of the White House will soon further become
stricter. Another reason for this is that the geopolitical and
geo-economic-energy interests of the USA and Russia in the South
Caucasus have for the first time ever entered the point of clash and
this knot cannot be undone without Azerbaijan’s strategic choice in
favour of the West.
Incidentally, the borders of NATO and the European Union have
approached closer to the South Caucasus passing through Ukraine and
Georgia (the stripe of GUAM). "In the middle" remains Azerbaijan and
Armenia. Moscow also understands this. The growing pressure on Kiev,
the dramatic processes unfolding around Georgia and unprecedented
aggression of our northern neighbour against these countries have to
be exactly explained by the last factor.
The election of Medvedev as president has proved that Putin’s Russia
does not have intention of easing the policy of threat in the near
future. Moscow’s policy is to retain regional countries under control
through ethnic conflicts. Therefore, the White House is in a hurry to
have at least certain clarity in the Karabakh issue which plays a
dominant role for the region, and have Ilham Aliyev at least give
verbal consent to the Madrid document which appeared due to patronage
of the West and runs against Azerbaijan’s fundamental interests.
According to information we received through other channels, at the
meeting with Boucher Aliyev expressed vehement opposition to pressures
related to Karabakh. No doubt, this fact has to be assessed
positively. But as also acknowledged by the president, if he is under
growing pressure and threats, why he is not in a hurry to take steps
towards the nation and the opposition to put into operation the public
resistance mechanism and do not make any attempts towards dialogue and
mass protest against foreign pressures?
Aliyev needs cooperation with opposition over Karabakh
On the contrary, he continues to exert pressure on the democratic
forces who are against the capitulatory peace, wants to burn the last
bridges with the political opposition, brought the Electoral Code to
further ruined state, trying to have silenced the free media a serious
informative institution which is against an ignominious peace? (It is
intriguing that the West is not that critical of this repression)
Another motive for Washington’s haste in the Karabakh issue might be
associated with the PKK [Kurdistan Workers Party] threat. The matter
is that as US military expert Prof Stephen J. Blank said the USA is
cautious about the likelihood of a Turkish and Azerbaijani joint
military intervention in the occupied territories under the pretext of
a PKK danger. (We have covered this matter in depth in our latest
issues)
The USA has recognized the PKK as a terrorist organization. That is to
say, the opposition of the USA to such an operation is not high. The
resolution of the Karabakh issue or any fundamental breakthrough in
this matter would make such an intervention unnecessary and would
retain the opportunities for the border section with Iran in the
occupied territories to come under the control of the West.
To recap, we have to say that the USA has not fully obtained from the
Azerbaijani leadership what it wanted with regard to its regional
targets. (This is good for Karabakh but bad for democracy author). And
the situation has reached the point (this is also proven by the
president’s last anti-US remarks) that the relations between Ilham
Aliyev and the USA seem soured. What the current state of affairs
promise for the regime’s political fate, Azerbaijan and democracy will
likely be obvious soon.
[translated from Azeri]