ARE KARABAKH SKIRMISHES MEANT TO DRAW ATTENTION FROM YEREVAN?
By Fariz Ismailzade
Eurasia Daily Monitor
le_id=2372874
March 3 2008
DC
Azerbaijanis increasingly see the recent wave of cease-fire violations
in Karabakh as an attempt by Yerevan to divert attention from
the domestic turmoil that has erupted since Armenia’s February 19
presidential election. Reportedly, four soldiers from the Azerbaijani
side and eight from the Armenian side have died as a result of the
worst cease-fire violations in a decade. Although both sides have
pledged to observe an agreement on the cease-fire, shootings continue
to occur, and reports from March 10 indicate that one more soldier
from each side has died.
Both the U.S. State Department and the current chairman of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Finnish
Foreign Minister Ilkka Kanerva, have expressed deep concerns about
this unusual outbreak of cease-fire violations. The Armenian and
Azerbaijani sides blame each other for starting the fight. Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian told a press conference that "We
condemn the acts of the Azerbaijani army, which wanted to utilize
the right moment, capture some territories" (Armeninfo, March 4.)
Azerbaijani officials have reacted in a similar manner. "The leadership
of Armenia is utilizing provocations in order to distract attention
from its domestic problems," said Ali Hasanov, the chief of the
political department in the President’s Office.
Anar Mammadkhanov and Asim Mollazadeh, members of Azerbaijan’s
parliament, as well as political scientists Rasim Musabeyov, Alimammad
Nuriyev, Akif Nagi, and Mubariz Ahmadoglu all put the blame on Armenian
President Robert Kocharian and Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian, who
won the disputed vote. "Kocharian and Sarkisian, who have butchered
their own people in the streets of Yerevan, badly needed a provocation
on the front line," said Mammadkhanov (Day.az, March 4.)
While Azerbaijanis are convinced that the cease-fire violation was
linked to the bloodshed, political chaos, and turmoil in post-election
Armenia, many now wonder what the implications will be.
In a March 6 interview with ANS Radio, Eldar Sabiroglu,
the press secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan,
rhetorically asked, "What were the soldiers from Armenia doing in
Nagorno-Karabakh?" Political scientist Vugar Seidov, in an op-ed for
Day.az on March 6, continued the similar theme, stating, "The fact
that Kocharian created a provocation in the front line in order to
divert attention from domestic affairs proves that Armenia is directly
involved in the conflict."
The situation presents a very dangerous precedent. Although cease-fire
violations are a regular occurrence along the front line in Karabakh,
most of the incidents in the past were minor and not linked to
political events in a particular country. This latest case, however,
shows that the stability in the Caucasus is very fragile and how the
domestic developments and needs of a particular country can shake
the seemingly solid balance of power in the front line.
Azerbaijanis blame the international community for once again applying
double standards toward both the incident and the overall election
situation in Armenia. The soft criticism from the OSCE, Council of
Europe, and U.S. Department of State to the brutal crackdown against
the peaceful protestors in Yerevan – the official death toll is eight
persons – has shocked Baku. A well-known diplomat, who preferred to
speak to Jamestown on the condition of anonymity says, "Just imagine
the reaction if something like that happens in Azerbaijan. What
would happen if our police brought out tanks, shot eight people, and
introduced emergency rule, including open official censorship?! The
West’s sudden warm attitude toward pro-Russian former warlord Sarkisian
is surprising. Many in Azerbaijan have already made up their minds
that the only reason why Armenia’s authorities are being treated
so mildly is the Armenians’ ethnicity and religion. This strongly
undermines any credibility of the OSCE and Western observers in case
of future criticisms of Azerbaijan. Moreover, this plays directly
into Moscow’s hands, where talk about the West’s insincerity is at
the top of Kremlin’s talking points. Ironically, Azerbaijan did not
support Moscow’s effort, by the way endorsed by Yerevan, to end OSCE
election and democracy monitoring in the region."
There are also analysts who believe that the cease-fire violation
was caused by broader geopolitical games unfolding in the Caucasus.
Independent political analysts Ilgar Mammadov told Day.az on March
6 that the "cease-fire violation has allowed Moscow to scare off
the potential consumers of the Azeri and Turkmen gas." Previously
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Hungary and expressed
Azerbaijan’s interest in joining the Nabucco gas pipeline project,
which is designed to deliver Caspian gas to European markets. Gudrat
Hassanguliyev, a member of the Azerbaijani parliament, went even
further in his thinking regarding the cease-fire violation, by
informing journalists that "it was an attempt by Moscow to show to
the participants of the NATO Rose-Roth seminar in Baku who is in
charge of security issues in the region."
Observers may never know if Russia was directly involved into
this cease-fire violation or not. But the double-standards from
the West and the clear provocation from Yerevan are increasingly
pushing Azerbaijanis more and more toward a military solution to the
long-running conflict.