Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
Feb 8 2008
Presidential Elections in Armenia and Its Uniqueness
by Rovshan Ibrahimov
Friday , 08 February 2008
February 19, 2008 in Armenia will be held presidential elections.
While presidential candidates registered 9 persons, the main battle
will take place between the leader of the Republican Party, the
current Prime Minister of Armenia Serzh Sarkisian and the first
Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosian advanced by the opposition.
It is noteworthy, that it will be held unusual elections in Armenia
in comparison with presidential elections in other countries of the
former Soviet Union.
Without any doubt, these elections have nothing similar to the change
of ruling power in Georgia and Ukraine, because of "velvet
revolutions". However, a plan for continuity of power from the
current President Kocharian to Sarkisian, so successfully implemented
in several countries, such as Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and possibly
soon in Russia, faced with unforeseen complexity in the person of
Ter-Petrosian.
The first president of Armenia was forced to resign in 1999 because
of the unstable domestic situation in Armenia. At the time,
Ter-Petrosian was accused that he intended to "pass" Nagorno-Karabakh
to Azerbaijan, agreeing on the signing of the treaty with that
country.
Opposition groups, trying to get into power in Armenia, using the
"card" of Karabakh, were able then forcing Ter-Petrosian to resign.
Immediately came to power "representatives" of Karabakh clan, which
has been characteristic of being immediately assigned key posts in
Armenia. For Armenia, whose citizens flocked from all over the world,
the regional division, provided by new elite is alien element. And if
in the times of Ter-Petrosian in his team attended by representatives
of foreign bright Armenian Diaspora, with the advent of "Karabakhian"
Kocharian, Armenia has been under mortgage priorities and interests’
of ruling group coming from this region of Azerbaijan.
It looks like a typical division for Azerbaijan on regional
principle, twisted joke played with Karabakh Armenians who have
created their clan management of Armenia.
Perhaps under normal circumstances, would be worth 19 February to
expect a smooth transition of power from one representative within
clan to another, however, candidacy of Ter-Petrosian, who is after 10
years remote from politics, could seriously confused cards present
regime in Armenia.
First of all, this is due to the fact that in other Post soviet
countries where the transfer of power was carried out by the
appointment of a successor, and the opposition was not available
pronounced leader, would be able to combine the resources of protest.
The same can not be said about Armenia, where opposition is may
consolidate own power beside a very popular Ter-Petrosian, which has
experience of running the state, as well as widespread support in the
west.
In spite of Armenia is not likely to expect the "velvet revolution"
and appropriate support from the West, and thus erroneously compared
with Saakashvili and Yushchenko, the possible return of Ter-Petrosian
may be compared with returning to the power Aliyev and Shevardnadze
in neighboring Azerbaijan and Georgia in 1993.
The reason that Ter-Petrosian has already led country only
strengthens his position. This is also the fact that Ter-Petrosian in
the event of victory in the elections will be able to create own
team, as opposed to the current regime. Moreover, given the
peculiarity of the Armenian nation, Ter-Petrosian if necessary will
be able to use the resource of the Armenian Diaspora.
It’s maybe interesting to remember the words of the ex-president when
he resigned in 1999. Ter-Petrosian then uttered the phrase, that:
"Today, the party of war had won and the peace party lost, the time
will come when the party of peace will return to power again."
Perhaps, the current elections are the implemented time for
Ter-Petrosian, when he emphasized "peace party" must return to power.
Ter-Petrosian is known as a pragmatic leader. Indeed, Ter-Petrosian
has repeatedly warned that the future of Armenia is directly linked
with the establishment of good relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
In this case, there is hope that with the election of the President
Ter-Petrossian, the Karabakh conflict and resolving historical
disputes with Turkey could be have some development. In any case, it
should not build too optimistic forecasts: even full determination in
tackling these problems Ter-Petrosian may face multiple resistances
of internal and external factors.
Furthermore, it should not be forgotten about Russia influences in
Armenia, which declared its "outpost" in the South Caucasus and
Armenia considers its only ally in the region. Notable is the signing
of an agreement on cooperation between the Russian ruling party
"United Russia" and the Armenian Republican Party during the visit,
the Russian party leader Boris Grizlov in Yerevan. The signing of
such kind of agreement in anticipation of the presidential elections
in Armenia, show that Russia’s support for the current regime.
Despite this fact, one should not forget that Russia has been unable
to influence in election processes in some countries of the
post-Soviet space. So, Armenia could also become the exception. And
so, the current regime may lose to Ter-Petrosian.
Evaluating these factors we can summarize that the presidential
elections in Armenia have little similarities with those which
usually held in other countries of the Former Soviet Union.
07 February 2008
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