Danie l Fried, Assistant Secretary European and Eurasian Affairs
Remarks to the Center for Eurasian Policy conference on "The
Azerbaijan-Turkey-U.S. Relations and Its importance for Eurasia"
Mayflower Hotel, Washington, DC
December 10, 2007
As Prepared for Delivery
Good morning, and thank you, Mr. Cetin, for your kind words. And Salaam
and merhaba to all of you here and participating from overseas.
I’m told that the name Azerbaijan comes from the Old Persian for "Land
of Fire," a reference supposedly to Azerbaijan’s famous petroleum
deposits.
The link between the nation and energy does neatly capture the way many
look at Azerbaijan.
But there is another theory that the name refers to bonfires lit by the
Zoroastrian high priests of this ancient country. I prefer that theory
of the origin of the name Azerbaijan, because it roots the nation in
ancient culture, and it is culture, not resources, that makes
civilizations.
Nations need resources, but traditions and values are deeper ingredients
of successful nationhood. America looks at Azerbaijan in the deeper
sense.
The United States and Europe are of course large consumers of foreign
energy, and we are interested in a free and open market for all
commodities, especially strategic ones, and I will speak to that. But
U.S. interests in partnership with Azerbaijan are broader.
We have a stake in the spread of the rule of law and democracy, the
stability that results over time from their consolidation, and an
open-trading system. And our relations with Turkey are similarly broad.
The three of us-Azerbaijan, Turkey and the United States-can forge a
strategic partnership that will benefit us all, and in turn benefit the
region.
Turkey’s example as a secular democracy with a Muslim-majority
population can inspire reformers in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and
broader Middle East who seek the same political freedom, prosperity, and
stability that Turkish citizens increasingly enjoy.
America’s grand strategy for post-communist Europe since 1989 has rested
on a deceptively simple principle: America’s interests are best served
when the countries which liberated themselves from Soviet control are
free and empowered to fulfill their own destiny by pursuing their own
reforms.
The United States does not view the countries in the South Caucasus and
Central Asia instrumentally. Rather, we are convinced that Azerbaijan’s
success as a nation – free and at peace at home, at peace in its region
– is in our long-term interest.
I would like to make three points to illustrate how we apply this
overall approach to Azerbaijan in particular and what
Turkish-Azerbaijani-U.S. strategic partnership means.
* First, by succeeding as a democracy over time and building modern
national institutions, again over time, Azerbaijan can be a stronger
nation and more important strategic partner.
* The second point concerns the Turkish-Azerbaijani-U.S. energy
partnership: through this partnership, we hope Azerbaijan can find
resources for building its state at home and peace and security in its
region.
* The third point includes the impact we hope U.S.-Turkey-Azerbaijan
strategic cooperation will have on the region that stretches from the
Black Sea to China.
Azerbaijan’s Democracy and Nationhood
Let us acknowledge and applaud what Azerbaijan has achieved since
regaining its independence in 1991. It managed the immediate post-Soviet
transition successfully. It stabilized itself and developed cooperative
relations with Russia. Today, it is helping Iraqis and Afghans retain
their freedom, in partnership with the United States.
Nagorno-Karabakh remains an unresolved and dangerous problem. But even
given this, we should affirm that President Heydar Aliyev achieved a
great deal in successfully creating a viable and sovereign state.
The question now is what kind of state Azerbaijan will become. And the
that question is not yet answered.
Will Azerbaijan continue a successful path of national development? It
can do so only if it creates 21st century institutions essential for a
modern state. These include an independent legislature, an independent
banking system; an impartial judiciary free of political control;
independent, functioning markets; an independent media, and more. This
is the challenge of President Ilham Aliyev.
Notice the operative word: independent. Checks and balances are
necessary if a government is going to correct course. And checks and
balances only exist when institutions act without fear of retribution.
Freedom in this sense is not a luxury that one looks to achieve as an
afterthought. Democracy is not simply the holding of elections. The 21st
century faces many challenges-terrorism and ideological radicalization,
the proliferation of unconventional weapons, and weak and corrupt
governance among them. The response to these problems will be found
through the rule of law, through governments that rule justly and
accountably, through free markets and the institutions that keep them
honest.
And Azerbaijan’s achievements in this context are mixed. The opposition
has been marginalized, and while I know there are outstanding
individuals in parliament-one with us today- the legislature needs to
play its role in governing the country and not be simply a transition
belt for the government. Courts, too, need to function as courts.
More importantly, we are deeply disturbed by the continued and recently
growing pressure on media, including the arrests of journalists. I was
dismayed to learn of the arrest of an RFE/RL correspondent – Nasibov —
in Azerbaijan late last week under charges of "criminal libel." I
understand that the Nakhichivan prosecutor has dropped the most severe
charges; if true, I welcome it. But I also understand that Mr. Nasibov
has been given a year’s probation for what appears to be no more than
him doing his job. Moreover, this latest arrest follows a disturbing
pattern of pressure on independent journalists. I regret to say that we
appear to be witnessing a deterioration of media freedom in Azerbaijan.
This is not good news for Azerbaijan or our relations.
We all witnessed the difficulties Georgia encountered when it closed a
major television station. Our message to our Georgian friends was the
same as my message to you: if the media are not free, neither is the
nation. Strong countries have free media. The media has a responsibility
to maintain professional standards, but arrests are not the way to
improve media.
These blunt words may not meet with an enthusiastic reaction from some
here. They are not intended to elicit one. But let me add that America
is far from perfect, and we do not hold ourselves above criticism. Nor
does Azerbaijan need look to the U.S. as the sole available democratic
model. There are other examples.
Turkey is itself deepening its democracy and gradually developing the
practices and institutions of secular democracy with a Muslim-majority
population. Turkish democracy has faced setbacks in the past and faced a
test this past spring and summer, but there is no doubt that the main
trend in Turkey over the past generation has been profoundly democratic,
and this year Turkish democracy demonstrated its strength through the
last elections that provided a fair chance for the nation’s will to make
itself known and respected.
Azerbaijan could follow Turkey’s example, even as Turkey conducts its
own debates about improving journalistic freedoms and eliminating taboos
that have no place in a confident, modern nation. Again, strong nations
do not arrest their journalists and silence their critics.
Azerbaijan might consider that U.S.-Turkish relations are based on
shared values as much as shared interests.
By succeeding as a secular democracy, Azerbaijan can similarly elevate
its strategic importance, as Turkey has done. This process, to be
realistic, takes time. If Azerbaijan over time opens itself up, deepens
its institutions, opens its economy, the rest of its democracy will
follow and its independence and sovereignty will have stronger
foundations, as will our partnership.
Energy Partnership
The longer term impact of energy development will also be a factor in
Azerbaijan’s success in developing independent institutions.
Azerbaijan needs to make its oil and gas deposits become a blessing and
national asset, and not a source of fast wealth and long-term
instability. We all know of petro-dictatorships abound in the world.
Theories why also abound, and they usually revolve around how oil and
gas revenues free leaders from checks and balances. Sudden wealth
unchecked by strong, honest institutions to handle it can fatten a small
group of well-placed leaders rather than strengthen a nation. In such
cases, massive amounts of petro-money lead to corruption,
mis-governance, economic distortions and, ultimately, political and
social instability.
The answer lies in transparent institutions and open markets,
independent of monopolies and the distortions they bring.
Azerbaijan has taken some of the right steps already. In 1994, President
Haydar Aliyev made a bold decision to open Azerbaijan’s energy sector in
the Caspian Sea to international investors.
This opening, coupled with the Baku-Supsa and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil
pipelines and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, aimed to cement
Azerbaijan’s place in Europe, in close cooperation with Turkey and the
United States.
This vision was then shared and amplified by then-President Demirel of
Turkey. Working with Azerbaijani President Aliyev, Azebaijani Energy
Minister Natiq Aliyev, Azerbaijani Vice Speaker Aleskherov, and Turkish
Energy Minister Guler, these plans have gone forward to establish a new
generation of energy infrastructure in a Southern Corridor that will
help Europe diversify its energy supplies by relying on Azerbaijani, and
Caspian energy more generally, eventually delivered via Turkey. It is
hardly surprising that all these men are either here or are addressing
this conference via video.
I also want to note the success of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan as a
success. The establishment and functioning of this fund show that
Azerbaijan’s leadership is aware of and addressing the pitfalls of the
"Oil Trap."
Azerbaijan has a strategic importance as an alternative supplier of
natural gas to Europe. It is emerging as a giant producer of natural
gas, in addition to the oil that fills the landmark BTC pipeline.
Azerbaijan’s gas reserves should be sufficient to launch-and perhaps
complete-a new generation of natural gas pipelines that will link
Southern and Central Europe with the Caspian Basin via Turkey, providing
several of our European Allies with a viable alternative to a monopoly
transport system and a closed investment climate.
The opening of energy development and end to closed, monopolistic
transport systems will tend to reduce corruption, if matched by
development of institutions to see to it that energy wealth benefits the
nation: independent, well-regulated and un-politicized banks; and
accountability for the energy resources.
U.S.-Turkey-Azerbaijan Cooperation in the Region
Azerbaijan’s successful development at home and support for open energy
markets should go hand-in-hand and successful U.S.-Turkey-Azerbaijan
strategic cooperation directed at the surrounding region.
We three countries at this conference know that our tripartite
relationship is a major strategic factor for the region. Turkey is an
old friend and ally of ours, and we have been through many a crisis
together. Our friendship transcends the state-to-state,
government-to-government levels and includes individuals. I have friends
at this conference, and they have a friend in me.
Let me say how pleased I am that, at long last, our cooperation against
the PKK terrorist organization is at a new phase and yielding concrete
results.
But aside from our interests in each other, we three can also do a lot
together externally, impacting not just the South Caucasus but also the
vast land that stretches on the other side of the Caspian.
The title of your conference is "The Azerbaijan-Turkey-U.S. Relationship
and its importance to Eurasia" and I find that apt. The three of us
should do all we can to help this region expand its strategic horizons
and its political and economic freedoms. Achieving this would raise our
tripartite relationship to a higher strategic level.
The South Caucasus and Central Asia emerged from the Soviet Union, but
have yet to find their place in the wider world.
A Turkey and Azerbaijan as it goes in the right direction will lead
these countries to a destination of peace and prosperity, and I agree
with Ambassador Sensoy about Turkey’s soft power. We want a Central Asia
open to and engaged the world as a subject in its own right, not an
object.
In saying this, let me add that the United States does not regard itself
in a zero-sum game against any other country. To be blunt and specific:
Russia will be a major factor in this region; it is neither wise nor
possible for the United States to pit itself against Russia as an
objective of our policies. Rather, in our vision of an open region,
there is room for all nations to develop relations with Central Asia and
the South Caucasus, as this region finds its own way in the world in its
new independence and sovereignty. We will defend and advance this vision
vigorously.
One huge benefit for the region, and a huge achievement for the
US-Azerbaijan-Turkey partnership, is the physical and economic
manifestation of the development of a Southern Corridor to Europe for
natural gas. This will require the US, Azerbaijan, and Turkey to work
together to attract gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. The result
would be a far stronger basis of long-term strategic openness for the
region and its connection to the west.
Our partnership can have a tremendous impact beyond the former Soviet
empire. A democratic, developing, prosperous, and stable Azerbaijan will
provide an example to inspire aspiring reformers in Iran, whose 17
million ethnic Azeris comprise one-quarter of Iran’s population.
In order for this vision, an important one, to materialize, Azerbaijan
is going to need to enact the political reforms I referred to. It will
also need to resolve its outstanding issue with Armenia.
The South Caucasus cannot achieve its full potential in the absence of a
Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. As long as Armenia remains isolated in its
region, a common vision of prosperity and freedom, and therefore
stability, will not be attainable. It is time to wrap up agreement on
the Basic Principles of a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.
Azerbaijan’s success can be as critical for Central Asia as was Poland’s
success was 15 years ago to Central Europe.
But to succeed, Azerbaijan will have to:
* Deepen its institutions as a secular democracy, something that will
only elevate Azerbaijan’s strategic importance; and
* Do all it can to ensure transparency in its energy markets.
If it does make reforms in these areas, the U.S.-Turkey-Azerbaijan
relationship can help shape the strategic evolution of the vast region
>From the Black Sea to China and to advance its sovereign and independent
place in the wider world.
Azerbaijan’s future will be as bright as it makes it. Turkey, given its
geographic position and NATO membership, is a natural gateway for
Azerbaijan to the Euro-Atlantic family. Just as Turkey is deepening its
democratic reforms to sustain its EU accession ambitions, so must
Azerbaijan advance democratic reform to bolster its ties with
Euro-Atlantic institutions.
Those bright lights that caught the eyes of Ancient Persians should not
be allowed to die down.
Thank you very much for your attention and for organizing this
conference.
Released on December 10, 2007