TER-PETROSIAN: IS ARMENIA READY FOR A COMEBACK?
Marianna Grigoryan
EurasiaNet, NY
Oct 30 2007
Both in public and in private, one question has dominated conversations
in Armenia over the past month: Will Levon Ter-Petrosian’s return to
politics prove a true comeback?
While Ter-Petrosian’s chances for success in next year’s presidential
elections remain uncertain, an upsurge of popular interest in the
62-year-old ex-president and support for his reelection campaign
suggest that Armenia’s political field is changing fast.
"He is the most pivotal statesman and politician in Armenia’s political
life and has no competitors in this sense," argued political analyst
Suren Sureniants, a member of the political council of the opposition
Republic (Hanrapetutiun) Party.
Charisma, intellect and hands-on experience are the attributes used to
tout Ter-Petrosian, yet no opinion polls have been taken on how voters
compare these attributes with those of Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian,
the government’s projected presidential candidate. Aharon Adibekian,
the head of the independent polling center Sociometer, said that a
survey run in January 2007 gave the former president a "rather low"
assessment, but added that "everything is still ahead and we cannot
draw a conclusion yet." Polls on the question are expected "in the
near future," he said.
For now, though, the lack of hard data to back up their hopes for
a Ter-Petrosian win does not disturb the opposition. Reactions to
Ter-Petrosian’s candidacy may vary, commented Sureniants, but, for
the opposition, the ex-president’s return to politics "is perhaps an
exclusive chance to get noticed."
The October 26 demonstration at which Ter-Petrosian announced his
candidacy arguably marked the beginning of a new period for the
opposition, elaborated one rank-and-file supporter. "I think that was
an historical moment," translator Hakob Mkrtchian said. "We have waited
long for him to return to politics. I think his statement opened a new
page in Armenia’s dull political life." Sixty-year-old doctor Laura
Harutiunian agreed. With a candidate that has "the respect of many
intellectuals," she said, voters can "finally make a choice." [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
"I think that a new opposition movement has been formed and
consolidated around Levon Ter-Petrosian and, if it takes more actions
in the future, it will convince many to follow," said pro-opposition
columnist Tigran Paskevichian.
A first step should be deciding on a response to what the opposition
terms a "news blockade" by public television and other television
stations against stories about Ter-Petrosian’s campaign and the
October 26 rally, Paskevichian said.
Many supporters agree. A report by public television about the
demonstration showed the square in downtown Yerevan where thousands had
gathered to hear Ter-Petrosian speak as "half-empty," related teacher
Narine Hakobian, who attended the rally. "The report alternated with
black-and-white footage showing ‘what terrible years we had’ under the
first president. What is being done by the authorities is not honest,
I think."
One public television employee has dismissed the criticism. "And
why should public TV show what you want? Our camera showed what was
taking place," asserted Haroutiun Haroutiunian, director of Armenian
Public Television’s Haylur news program.
Political analyst Alexander Iskandarian, however, contends that
a television blockade will have little effect on Ter-Petrosian’s
campaign.
"If the authorities try their chances with television broadcasts,
which is not ruled out, then the struggle will pass to the streets.
…. The field of struggle will be through public rallies," he said.
"And in that field, Ter-Petrosian feels quite confident, as he is an
experienced public figure. "
However, political analyst Aris Ghazinian argues that other images
could well tarnish that of Ter-Petrosian as the crowd-pleasing leader
of Armenia’s Soviet-era nationalist movement.
"Ter-Petrosian’s tactic was like the tactic followed by the leader
of Soviet Armenia, Karen Demirchian. He also stayed in voluntary
retirement for 10 years and it was during that period that his image
became legendary and he turned into an epic national hero," Ghazinian
said. "But, unlike Demirchian, Ter-Petrosian does not have the same
resource of nostalgia, the memories of the secure … peaceful and
satisfied Soviet past."
For many voters, other analysts agree, Ter-Petrosian’s rule from 1991
to 1998 is identified with the simultaneous crises of war, economic
depression and electricity shortages — a combination that brought
the newly independent state to the brink of collapse. Pro-government
media has been touting roughly the same line for the past month, with
regular television programs and pro-government newspaper commentaries
reexamining the difficulties of the early post-Soviet period.
"Why do I need Ter-Petrosian’s return [to power]?" asked Yerevan taxi
driver Artush Mkrtchian. "Are we so satisfied with our life today
that we want to return to the dark and cold years?"
Attacking the government will do little to change that impression,
argues parliamentarian Armen Ashotian of the ruling Republican Party
of Armenia. "We don’t see Levon Ter-Petrosian as a new fresh force and,
in fact, there is nothing new in what he says."
As have other pro-government lawmakers, Ashotian expressed "full
confidence" in Prime Minister Sarkisian’s ability to prevail at
the polls.
To political analyst Iskandarian, though, Sarkisian and Ter-Petrosian
are evenly matched. "The struggle will be not only between the
two ideologies, between the two figures, but between two methods of
struggle," he said. "What is important is which of the two the public
will believe."
Editor’s Note: Marianna Grigoryan is a deputy editor for the
independent ArmeniaNow weekly in Yerevan.