Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Oct 19 2007
POSTPONING THE VOTING NOT TO BECOME A TRAGEDY
The results of the recent discussions between the US Legislative
and Executive Powers prompt that the final adoption of Resolution #
106 by the House of Representatives may be postponed for a certain
period of time.
In our previous analyses we predicted the possibility of such
developments and arrived at the conclusion that the moment of the
Resolution’s final adoption must strictly coincide with the
developments observed in Iraq and the critical stage of the
Turkish-American relations resulting thereof. It was clear from the
outset that by the October 10 voting of the Foreign Affairs
Committee, the US legislator did not actually comply with the demands
of the Armenian Lobby; they just took a preventive step in order to
restrain Turkey which had deployed its troops on the Iraqi border.
An interval for the period of half a month has now been declared
in the Turkish-American confrontation around Northern Iraq. In such
conditions it is natural that none of the parties will take a new
step leading to the deterioration of the relations. Therefore, the
decreasing number of the Congressmen supporting the Armenian Genocide
Resolution is not accidental.
Does this mean that the state of euphoria observed after October
10 will continue to remain prevalent in our reality, so that we will
have to wait for the victory of the Armenian Lobby or, on the
contrary, insist that the adoption of Resolution # 106 by the Foreign
Affairs Committee did not bring any use to us, and the US legislators
made the successive deceitful step against the Armenian nation.
We believe both viewpoints currently discussed in our reality are
unilateral and definitely prejudiced. Enthusiasm or disappointment
can arise only in those people who have so far held the viewpoint
that all our achievements are due to the international politics’
being an important factor. And now they cannot give up that idea, or,
on the contrary, deny the inevitably of the positive consequences
resulting from the adoption of the Resolution.
Instead of being guided by such superficial and definitely
politicized assessments, it is necessary to make accurate
calculations of the proper moment for passing Resolution #106 by the
US House of Representatives. It is clear that the crisis observed in
the Turkish-American relations is caused by objective factors, and
they will not disappear even if Prime Minister R.T. Erdoghan visits
Washington 100 times. And Ankara’s open desire to deploy its troops
in the Iraqi Kurdistan bears absolutely no relation the intention of
killing the PKK rebels.
Therefore, the issue is whether Turkey will manage, under the
threat of invasion, to postpone the implementation of the Iraqi
Federalization program which has already been approved by the Senate,
and if so, for what period of time. On the other hand, there’s the
following issue: whether the United States will manage, under the
threat of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, to make a
persistent country like Turkey gradually put up with the
implementation of the Iraqi Federalization Program and hence – the
prospect of creating the independent state of Kurdistan.
Perhaps, there will be temporary `ceasefires’ in the
Turkish-American relations in the near future, but they will
inevitably be followed by a new, deepening crisis. So, from the angle
of the primary task of promoting the recognition of the Armenian
Genocide, there is currently no need to display any signs of
dissatisfaction or impatience. On the contrary, Resolution # 106 must
be put to vote at the moment when the House of Representatives
unanimously favors its adoption.
It is clear that the factions favoring the adoption of Resolution
# 106 by the Foreign Affairs Committee and especially the Democrats
currently beware of abrupt steps since they are, by and large,
gaining advantage in the game against the ruling Administration. Both
the Jewish Lobby of the United States and Israel, which unnoticeably
advances the issue of forming the state of Kurdistan, have appeared
in an advantageous situation too. So, they both need time for
imparting a smooth course to the change of the US policy and holding
the demonstrations around the status of Kirkouk.
Afterwards, when there is inevitably a new crisis in terms of the
Iraqi American policy on the one hand and the Turkish-American
relations on the other, the Armenian side will have no difficulty
ensuring an overwhelming majority in the House of Representatives and
achieving the final adoption of Resolution # 106.
VARDAN GRIGORYAN