POLITICS-US: TIES WITH TURKEY DODGE ONE BULLET
By Jim Lobe
IPS, Italy
Oct 19 2007
WASHINGTON, Oct 18 (IPS) – Amid rising bilateral tensions with Turkey
and strong White House pressure, the Democratic leadership of the
U.S. House of Representatives is expected to set aside a controversial
resolution recognising as a "genocide" the deaths of as many as 1.5
million Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during World War I.
While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who had vowed to force a floor vote
on the issue in the coming weeks, kept silent on the matter Thursday,
a number of key Democrats suggested that the symbolic resolution,
which passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee 27-21 on a largely
party-line vote one week ago, was, for all practical purposes, dead.
"If it came to the floor today," Rep. John Murtha, a close Pelosi
ally who was one of nearly dozen Democratic lawmakers who withdrew
their co-sponsorship of the resolution this week, said late Wednesday,
"it would not pass."
At the same time, Pelosi, a long-time champion of the resolution on
behalf of thousands of Armenian-Americans who live in her northern
California district, also conceded that she was reconsidering her
pledge to bring the resolution to the floor.
If, as now expected, Pelosi withholds the measure until at least
next year, it will mark a major victory for Turkey which, after
the Committee vote last week, recalled its ambassador here for
"consultations" as the first of a series of possible measures designed
both to convey its displeasure and, if necessary, inflict serious
damage on Washington’s position, especially in Iraq.
Of particular concern has been the possibility that Ankara might
restrict access to its airspace and, in particular, to Incirlik Air
Base in eastern Turkey, the single most important external logistics
air hub for U.S. military operations in Iraq.
Indeed, about 70 percent of all air cargo sent to Iraq passes through
or crosses Turkey, as does some 30 percent of the fuel imported to
the U.S. military and virtually of its new, heavily-armoured vehicles,
according to the Pentagon.
Turkey severed all military ties with France after its parliament voted
last year to make the denial of the Armenian "genocide" a crime, and
it did nothing to discourage speculation here during the past week that
it would take similar steps if the genocide resolution went forward.
"Having worked this issue in the last Bush administration (1989-1993),
I don’t think the Turks are bluffing," Pentagon chief Robert Gates told
reporters here Thursday shortly after meeting the defence minister
of Armenia, which has had very rocky relations with Ankara. Turkey
has enforced a virtual blockade against Armenia since the early 1990.
"I will say again it has potential to do real harm to our troops in
Iraq and would strain — perhaps beyond repair — our relationship
with a key ally in a vital region and in the wider war on terror,"
added Gates, who has been the most outspoken Cabinet-level official
opposed to the resolution.
The possibility that it might restrict the use by the U.S. military
of Turkish territory and airspace is not the only concern faced by
Washington about Ankara at the moment, however.
Increasingly frustrated by Washington’s failure to either take direct
action against Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK) guerrillas or persuade the
Iraqi or Iraqi Kurdistan governments to do so, the Turkish parliament
voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to authorise sending troops into
northern Iraq to attack PKK units based there. The vote was 507 to
19 – a margin that may have been inflated as a result of anger over
the genocide resolution.
The PKK, which is considered by the U.S. to be a terrorist group,
has mounted a series of recent deadly actions against targets inside
Turkey in recent weeks. At least 30 Turkish soldiers, police and
civilians have been killed in PKK attacks in just the past two weeks,
according to published reports.
While most analysts here and in Turkey do not expect the government of
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to order a major cross-border operation
in the near future, the fact that the parliament has now authorised
such a move makes the threat of doing so far more credible.
Iraqi Kurdistan is the one region in Iraq that has been relatively
stable — and thus has not required the presence of U.S. troops —
since the U.S. occupation of the country began in 2003.
Any significant Turkish incursion, of the kind it carried out
relatively routinely during the 1990s, could plunge the region into
turmoil at a moment when U.S. forces are already overstretched,
according to analysts here who also noted that crude oil futures
jumped to an all-time high of nearly 90 dollars a barrel after
Wednesday’s vote.
Moreover, the pesh merga — the Iraqi Kurdish militia forces
that are nominally part of the Iraqi army and security forces —
could well rally behind the PKK against the Turks in the event of a
significant cross-border attack, others noted. Indeed, thousands of
Kurds, mostly students, reportedly took part rallies to protest the
Turkish legislation in Irbil, Kurdistan’s capital, Thursday.
It is in this context that mainly Democratic lawmakers who previously
backed the Armenian genocide bill here have been reassessing their
position during the last few days.
"We need every ally we can get [in Iraq]," said Murtha, a co-sponsor
of the resolution who has since withdrawn his support. "[Turkey is]
important to our effort in Iraq. We’ve got 160,000 troops in Iraq.
This is important to the U.S. effort in Iraq, period."
"This is not the time to stick our finger in the eyes of the Turks,"
said Rep. Mike Ross, another former co-sponsor who switched his
position this week.
Turkey has been aided as well by an expensive lobbying campaign
organised and led by a former Republican speaker, Robert Livingstone,
and Richard Gephardt, who, as the former Democratic House Leader,
had co-sponsored a similar resolution. They have also been joined by
several key lawmakers considered close to the so-called Israel Lobby,
including the influential Democratic Caucus chairman, Rep. Rahm
Emmanuel.
Israel has cultivated close ties with Turkey, particularly with
its military, over the past two decades, and Turkish officials have
reportedly requested its help in lobbying against the resolution.
Against this, Armenian Americans, of whom there are an estimated 1.5
million concentrated mostly in California, face an uphill battle.
"I truly hope that no member of Congress is persuaded to jump ship
on such a critical vote as this simply because of some threats by
a foreign government," said Armenian Assembly Executive Director
Bryan Ardouny.
"The government of Turkey and its million-dollar lobbyists are
effectively blackmailing the Congress and the government of the
United States. We should stand up to the threats and demand that
Turkey immediately cease its campaign of misinformation and threats,"
he added.
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