Today’s Zaman
05.09.2007
DOGU ERGIL
A dilemma: Politics versus economy
Some analysts of the pessimist variety believe that the sudden change
of heart of the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), an American Jewish
organization, to support the Armenian claim of genocidal annihilation
of Ottoman Armenians in 1915 by the government of the day is due to
the July signing of a memorandum of understanding between Turkey and
Iran related to gas and oil transit.
Beside transportation, both governments also agreed on realizing joint
energy investments. At a time when the US government is at odds with
Tehran and Israel is considering the destruction of Iranian nuclear
plans by any means possible, such moves must aim to pressure Turkey to
withdraw from further cooperation with Iran, although Turkey’s energy
concerns are serious and the new deal offers many opportunities in her
national interest.
So far the two sides have agreed to increase their cooperation in the
production of electricity and in the construction of natural gas power
stations. It is not only the US government that feels uneasy with the
Turkish-Iranian cooperation, as it is currently pursuing a policy to
isolate Tehran from the rest of the world. Russia is equally
displeased because Turkish-Iranian cooperation threatens Russian
access to Turkmen natural gas resources.
Turkish government officials do not look at the matter from a
political angle; they say that Turkey is hungry for energy and they
are after it wherever it is available and cheap. Iran is a neighboring
country and it has plenty of resources to offer. To this end, Turkey,
Iran and Pakistan founded the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO)
in 1985. The organization expanded seven years later to include
Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Now Turkey wants to revitalize this
economic cooperation that can only offer a humble 5 or 6 percent of
her total national trade.
Officials of the Turkish Energy Ministry have announced that, starting
next year, Turkey is making plans to invest $3.5 billion in Iran’s
South Pars offshore gas field. In order to avoid the wrath of powerful
players in the area, Ankara prefers a joint venture with an EU member
state that is already operating in the Iranian theater. One of the
aims of this future joint venture is said to be exploration of gas
fields in the Asalouyeh region. This region is rich with natural gas.
In fact the South Pars-North Dome area is where the world’s largest
gas-condensate field is located, in the Persian Gulf. It is shared by
Iran and Qatar. The region is estimated to hold 53.8 billion cubic
meters of natural gas and 56 billion barrels of condensate. If Turkey
can gain economic and operational access to this region, it will no
more be merely a transit corridor for Caspian oil and gas.
Ankara also wants to develop a Turkish-Iranian-Turkmen joint venture
to sell natural gas to the EU. Indeed, there is growing European
interest in purchasing Iranian natural gas via Turkey. If the
outstanding problems of the Nabucco natural gas pipeline are solved in
due time, this can become a lucrative reality sooner rather than
later.
However the Bush administration is rather reluctant to see Ankara
cooperating with either Iran or Russia. Washington prefers that Turkey
concentrate its efforts on Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz project to develop
the Caspian Basin gas resources and a pipeline system to bring those
resources to Turkey with the intent of conveying them to international
markets via Turkey. America’s second preferred project is to encourage
Ankara to buy natural gas from Iraq. But this is too idealistic, given
the Kurdish insurgent elements operating out of Iraqi territory and
the ensuing Turkish-US tension. But the Americans are insistent. US
Ambassador to Turkey Ross Wilson diplomatically warns Ankara that, "A
major increase of Iranian gas exports to Turkey and beyond may hinder
the development of gas resources in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and
western Turkmenistan that might come to Turkey."
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These words put Turkey in a bind — while Washington is increasing its
political pressure on Iran by considering adding Iran’s Revolutionary
Guard to its list of terrorist organizations, Turkey is trying to keep
a balance between its alliance with the US and its neighbor Iran, for
matters of economic expediency. If the US Congress adopts a resolution
to impose sanctions on European and other foreign companies that
invest in Iran’s petrochemical industries, Turkey’s economic plans
will drastically suffer. The US would make it obvious that Ankara has
fatally weakened Washington’s efforts to isolate Iran.
This dilemma can only be solved if Turkey sides with the US, but to
the cost of losing its future energy projects. Can Washington
compensate for these losses in other ways? Doubtful! This must be the
dark side of politics.
05.09.2007
Columnists
Source: berno=121220