President Kocharyan Received The Ago Group Delegation

PRESIDENT KOCHARYAN RECEIVED THE AGO GROUP DELEGATION

armradio.am
03.07.2007 14:57

President Robert Kocharyan today received the delegation of the Ago
Group of the Council of Europe Committee of Foreign Ministers headed
by Sweden’s Ambassador to the Council of Europe Per Sjogren. The
delegation comprises the Ambassador of Sweden, Austria, France,
Germany, Russia, Romania and Latvia to the Council of Europe, officials
of the Secretariat of the Council of Europe Committee of Ministers.

Emphasizing the importance of the Group’s periodic visits, the parties
agreed that ever since joining the Council of Europe, Armenia has
passed an important way and has registered a great progress with
respect to reforms.

In Robert Kocharyan’s words, the reforms embracing different spheres of
life are implemented with the deep conviction that these are primarily
necessary for us and we have no other way of development. "Armenia is
not rich in natural resources. Instead, our main wealth is the human
factor, which can find its full expression only due to effective,
deep and broad reforms," the President underlined.

The interlocutors turned to the current stage of the negotiation
process on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement, the meeting of
the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents in Saint Petersburg. They
exchanged views on the results of the parliamentary elections and
their international assessment, as well as the preparation of the
presidential elections. Positively assessing the past elections,
members of the Ago Group stressed the importance of further improvement
of the electoral legislation and the electoral processes.

BAKU: ICRC Not Accept Letter Of Armenian-Captured Soldier’s Parents

ICRC NOT ACCEPT LETTER OF ARMENIAN-CAPTURED SOLDIER’S PARENTS

Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
July 3 2007

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) Barda Office
refused to receive the letter by parents of Armenian-captured
Azerbaijani soldier Samir Mammadov, the captured soldier’s uncle
Vidadi Mammadov told the APA.

He said that though they wrote the letter yesterday, ICRC refused to
accept it. ICRC Azerbaijani representation’s press service asserted
the information.

The representation said that refusal of the letter is related to
Mammadov’s wish. Mammadov was captured by Armenians on December 24,
2006 and he wrote the letter to his parents on March 9 for the last
time. His parents also wrote him letter on May 19, but it was sent
back. ICRC representatives said that Mammadov did not want to receive
any letter.

Baku Hopes Talks On Karabakh Will Continue In Previous Format

BAKU HOPES TALKS ON KARABAKH WILL CONTINUE IN PREVIOUS FORMAT

Interfax Russia
July 3 2007

BAKU. July 3 (Interfax-Azerbaijan) – Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister
Elmar Mamedyarov hopes talks with Armenia on the settlement of the
Nagorno Karabakh problem will be continued in the framework of the
Prague process.

"We’ve been in talks within the framework of the Prague process for
three years now and would be disappointed if it came to a halt,"
Mamedyarov told the press.

He said talks with Armenia would hopefully continue in this format.

"But the choice of the format also largely depends on the co- chairmen
of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk
Group," Mamedyarov said.

Arkadi Ghukasyan: NKR Has A Tradition Of Holding Good Elections

ARKADI GHUKASYAN: NKR HAS A TRADITION OF HOLDING GOOD ELECTIONS

amradio.am
03.07.2007 15:41

The pre-election situation in Armenia is close to ideal: a pre-election
process is underway in the country. All the candidates have the
opportunity to present their platforms, and the people have an
alternative of choice.

NKR President Arkadi Ghukasyan said during a meeting in the
Armenian-Russian (Slavonic) University that Nagorno Karabakh "has a
tradition of holding good elections." "Although the international
community does not recognize the result s of these elections, but
gives the highest evaluation.

It may sound haughty, but the best elections on the post-Soviet
space take place in Karabakh. The democratic processes are the most
important for us, since we realize very well that what is forgiven
to the recognized states is not forgiven to the unrecognized ones,"
the President noted.

Arkadi Ghukasyan is confident that these elections will also be free,
fair and transparent, and as a result the strongest will win. As the
President of the country, Arkadi Ghukasyan is doing his best to assure
equal competition opportunities. As a citizen, he wants to see Bako
Sahakyan as his successor.

Arkadi Ghukasyan intends to stay in Karabakh after the presidential
elections. He has no programs for future, but is confident that he will
stay in politics. "It will be hard to leave politics, to which I have
dedicated 20 years of my life," he noted. In the President’s words,
he leaves happy like every leader who enjoys the trust of the people.

Surveys show that his rating is 70%.

ANKARA: OYAK’s Partner AXA Releases List Of Insured Victims Of Force

OYAK’S PARTNER AXA RELEASES LIST OF INSURED VICTIMS OF FORCED ARMENIAN EMIGRATION
CaÐri CobanoÐlu Ýstanbul

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
July 3 2007

Insurance company AXA, the French partner of the Armed Forces Pension
Fund (OYAK Group), has released a list of insured Anatolian Armenians
who lost their lives during the forced emigration by the Ottoman
Empire during World War I. The list includes 7,000 names.

In 2005, AXA had agreed to pay $ 17 million to the heirs of those
who died during emigration.

The list released on the Internet includes the policy numbers and
names of those who were insured by AXA at the time when they lost
their lives.

AXA at the time unleashed a wave of anger in Turkey after they agreed
in October 2005 to settle a class action lawsuit by descendants of
the victims of alleged genocide of Armenians under Ottoman rule.

The case was settled in a California court accusing the company of
failing to pay death benefits for the insurance policies purchased
by Armenians living in the Ottoman Empire prior to an alleged genocide.

Eventually, the case was settled for $17 million in the United States.

The influential Armenian diaspora at the time hailed the settlement
as a boost for their international campaign to have the World War I
killings of Anatolian Armenians recognized as genocide, an accusation
Turkey categorically rejects.

AXA made an announcement on their Web site,
, on which a notice of claim form
was also released and called on those who find their ancestor’s name
on the list to submit a written notice of claim no later than Oct. 1,
2007, to the Settlement Fund Board of AXA. An Armenian version of
the notice of the form was also put on their Web site.

It is expected that the number of heirs of those 7,000 persons may
reach tens of thousands.

The deal, which was harshly criticized by the Turkish public, also
dealt a blow to OYAK, an industrial venture representing the army
pension fund and AXA’s partner in Turkey since 1999. OYAK announced
after the deal that it was reviewing the situation in the light of the
"sensitivities of the Turkish people."

Recently, the sale of OYAK Bank, pending official approval, to Dutch
ING Group for $2.7 billion in cash has triggered a rumble of discontent
from various segments of Turkish society. Almost everyone considered
the sale to contradict what was previously said by the OYAK Group,
the parent conglomerate, which conducted a nationalistic — and
somewhat anti-foreign capital — campaign during its participation
in the privatization of Ereðli Iron and Steelworks (Erdemir) in 2005.

With the assistance of this atmosphere created through this campaign,
OYAK won the tender and became the biggest iron and steel producer
in the country.

–Boundary_(ID_2swkwU4/XtW1GE+MygMDIQ)–

www.armenianinsurancesettlement.com

ANKARA: Dink Murder Trial Opens Amidst Protests

DINK MURDER TRIAL OPENS AMIDST PROTESTS
E. BariÞ AltintaÞ Ýstanbul

Today’s Zaman, Turkey
July 3 2007

The trial of 18 people charged with involvement in the murder of
Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink opened on Monday behind closed
doors, six months after the murder took place in Ýstanbul.

Eighteen suspects — including O.S., the 17-year-old who confessed to
gunning down Dink — went on trial for the first time yesterday. The
trial will take place behind closed doors because O.S. is a minor.

Ultranationalists Erhan Tuncel, a university student, and Hayal,
who served time for the 2004 bombing of a McDonald’s, are charged
with planning the crime and membership in a terrorist organization.

The slate of defendants reaches high up into the political
ranks, including Yaþar Cihan, chairman of a local branch of the
ultranationalist Grand Unity Party (BBP), who is accused of giving
money to Hayal after the shooting. During the first day of the hearing,
Tuncel was reported to have said in his testimony that Hayal was "a
kid with nothing to do; has done nothing wrong. Has no bad intentions."

O.S. was reported to have demanded trial by a juvenile court,
plaintiffs’ lawyers informed the press during short breaks they took
throughout the day. Tuncel and Hayal were also reported to have
briefly bickered over remarks on each other’s psychological state
during the hearing, according to a press statement from Fahriye Cetin,
a lawyer representing the Dink family. "O.S. exercised his right to
keep silent and did not testify," she said in the evening when the
judge took a pause for 15 minutes.

Dink’s wife, Rakel Dink, in her court testimony blamed the negligence
of state officials for the assassination and demanded that the court
punish those responsible, a statement from a civil society organization
set up specially to monitor the Dink trial said.

The judges had not yet adjourned yesterday’s hearing by the time
Today’s Zaman went to print. Earlier in the morning, approximately a
thousand protesters gathered in Ýstanbul’s Beþiktaþ district, near
the courthouse, to demand that justice be done. Prominent lawyers,
artists and journalists joined the protestors appealing for justice
in front of the courthouse.

Protesters appealed for the rule of law, carrying banners that read,
"We are all witnesses, we want justice." The demonstrators also
shouted out, "We are all Hrant Dinks, We are all Armenians."

The journalist’s wife and other relatives walked through the nearby
square amidst hundreds applauding and proceeded to the courthouse
half an hour before the hearing began.

A large number of international journalists also turned up, as the
European Union and international human rights groups see the trial
as a litmus test for the Turkish legal system. Both Hrant Dink’s
lawyers and the print media have accused authorities of failing to
act on reports of a plot to kill Dink, and it is yet unclear whether
the allegations will be explored in the trial.

A statement issued by the Europe and Central Asia director of Human
Rights Watch (HRW), issued last Friday, said: "Hrant Dink’s murder
trial is a critical test of the Turkish judiciary’s independence. We
will be closely watching how the court handles any evidence that may
implicate the security forces."

In the wake of the murder earlier this year, Turkish authorities
promised a full and thorough investigation. The governor and police
chief of the Black Sea city of Trabzon — the hometown of O.S. —
were removed from office on charges of negligence in connection with
the case. Police and gendarmerie officers who posed for photographs
with the gunman as he held a Turkish flag were also dismissed.

However, there has been no evidence that directly implicates any police
or government officials in the slaying of Dink outside his office.

Many here believe that a shadowy network of individuals with access
to state power, referred to by critics as the "deep state," might be
behind the Dink murder as well as crimes targeting perceived enemies
in the name of nationalism.

Two days before the trial, the Dink family’s lawyer, Fethiye Cetin,
said a retired noncommissioned officer — a key suspect arrested after
the discovery of 27 hand grenades and TNT explosives in Umraniye —
was a co-plaintiff in past court cases against Dink. Dink had faced
charges of "insulting Turkishness" for his comments on Armenian claims
of genocide at the hands of the Ottoman Empire. Dink, who called for
reconciliation, was a hated figure for radical nationalists.

Cetin also said much evidence linked to the Jan. 19 killing of Hrant
Dink in the busy shopping district of Þiþli in central Ýstanbul,
including video records recorded by security cameras in banks near
the crime scene, had disappeared.

Shortly before the trial on Monday, Erdal Doðan, another lawyer for
the Dink family, expressed the same concern as Cetin. Replying to
questions from the press at the courthouse, he said, "We are not
satisfied about the real culprits not having been captured."

Also yesterday, in response to a question on the plaintiffs’ complaints
about the alleged limits of the Dink investigation, lawyer Cetin said,
"Our strategy will be to concentrate on that point. The gang is not
just limited to the suspects. It is a well-organized gang. All members
of the group should be rooted out. There is the negligence of the
gendarmerie and the police that was virtually on purpose. These [acts]
should be thoroughly investigated." Cetin also expressed that they had
demanded another ongoing investigation into claims of negligence to
be merged with the Dink trial. "These are interrelated crimes under
Article 8 of the Criminal Procedures Law (CMK)."

Approximately 500 lawyers from various parts of Turkey have obtained
authorization to follow the trial from the plaintiff’s side, with
about 300 of them present yesterday for the first day of the trial.

"This trial will be a test of whether this quagmire will be dried
up or not," lawyer Kezban Hatemi, representing Dink’s family, told
reporters before the hearing Monday. "The indictment lacks evidence
and there is a need to find the real culprits."

Ali Bayramoðlu, a columnist at Dink’s newspaper Agos, claimed "there
are dark, semi-official forces in action."

Dink’s death prompted calls for the revision or repeal of Article 301,
which is viewed by the EU as an obstacle to Turkey’s efforts to join
the bloc. No changes have yet been made.

Hayal’s lawyer harasses Dink family

Security was tight at the Ýstanbul 14th High Criminal Court before
the trial Monday morning.

The lawyer for one of the suspects, Yasin Hayal, charged with having
incited O.S. to carry out the assassination, told members of the
press that he had no expectations from the trial. "I protest this
type of pressuring of the Turkish judiciary. They will never think
it fair no matter what decision comes out of this courtroom," he said.

He also expressed his opinion that the indictment was erroneous in
that there was no gang involvement in the killing.

Hayal’s laywer, Turgut, upon the arrival of Hrant Dink’s wife and
two daughters, amidst applauding onlookers, charged at the newcomers:
"You are all Armenians! You all have Armenian passports!" Umit Abanoz,
one of Dink’s lawyers, yelled out and over Turgut’s comments, "Take
off your robe, you’re a provocateur!" The tension died down with the
intervention of police officers present in the room.

–Boundary_(ID_Dx5QxW9c/6aNDruQADGnhw)–

Dink’s Killers Go On Trial

DINK’S KILLERS GO ON TRIAL

Reuters
Gulf Times, Qatar
July 3 2007

ISTANBUL: Eighteen suspects went on trial yesterday for the murder of
ethnic Armenian editor Hrant Dink in a case seen as a litmus test for
the rule of law and the right to free speech in Turkey, a European
Union candidate country.

Dink, whose comments about the massacre of Armenians in Turkey in 1915
angered Turkish nationalists, was gunned down outside his Istanbul
office in January by a 17-year-old who has confessed to the killing.

Up to 1,000 supporters of Dink and his family, including human
rights activists, gathered outside the heavily guarded courthouse in
Istanbul’s Besiktas district to demand justice amid claims that some
policemen were involved in the murder.

"Shoulder to shoulder against fascism", they chanted.

Dink’s lawyers have said the murder has not been properly investigated
and have expressed fears for the independence of the court, reflecting
concerns about the possible involvement of Turkey’s so-called
"deep state".

The "deep state" is a loose term used to describe hardline nationalists
in the bureaucracy and security forces ready to subvert the law for
their own political ends.

Several Turkish newspapers yesterday quoted one of the main suspects,
Yasin Hayal, as saying he and his comrades murdered Dink on the orders
of police officers.

"I do not know what this ‘deep state’ means. I don’t know whether
it’s legal or illegal, but one thing is sure – there was a group
controlling us in the police," the Radikal daily quoted Hayal as
saying in a letter to prosecutors.

"Although you saw this, you have not protected our rights. Now I
ask you, if we were used in the service of the state, is it not the
state’s duty to protect our rights?"

Police have not publicly commented on the accusations.

Dink family lawyer, Fethiye Cetin, said the teenager accused of
shooting Dink exercised his right to remain silent in yesterday’s
hearing. Hayal and another suspect traded accusations in their
statements to the court, Cetin added.

The EU and human rights groups have shown a strong interest in the
Dink case, saying it is a crucial test for a justice system often
criticised for political bias.

"We will be closely watching how the court handles any evidence
that may implicate the security forces," said Holly Cartner, Europe
and Central Asia director at the New York-based Human Rights Watch,
in a weekend statement.

Several officials, including the head of police intelligence in
Istanbul, have been sacked over their handling of the case.

Shortly after Dink’s murder, video footage came to light showing
his suspected killer striking a heroic pose alongside security force
members apparently commending him for his act.

Dink, who received many death threats, worked for understanding
between Turks and Armenians through his bilingual Agos newspaper. But
his writings on the 1915 massacres and deportations of Armenians by
Ottoman Turks touched a nerve in Turkey.

Ankara denies Armenian claims, backed by many historians and by a
growing number of foreign parliaments, that the killings amounted
to genocide.

It says large numbers of both Muslim Turks and Christian Armenians
died in ethnic fighting as the Ottoman Empire collapsed during World
War I.

In Turkey, 18 Suspects Charged Of Killing Of Ethnic Armenian Journal

IN TURKEY, 18 SUSPECTS CHARGED OF KILLING OF ETHNIC ARMENIAN JOURNALIST GO ON TRIAL

Pravda, Russia
July 3 2007

More than six months after the killing of an ethnic Armenian
journalist, 18 suspects went on trial.

Hrant Dink was gunned down on Jan. 19 and his killing led to
international condemnation and debate within Turkey about free
speech. Dink was hated by hardline nationalists for describing the
mass killings of Armenians early in the last century as genocide.

The trial was taking place behind closed doors because the alleged
teenage gunman, Ogun Samast, is a minor.

But lawyers, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not
allowed to report details of the case, said two of the key suspects,
Yasin Hayal and Erhan Tuncel, claimed they worked for the security
forces. The alleged gunman had remained silent during the trial.

Critics accused authorities of failing to act on reports of a plot to
kill Dink, and it is unclear whether allegations that could potentially
be embarrassing for top officials will be explored in the trial.

Hayal, accused of providing gun and money to Samast, wrote some 20
letters to court officials and police explaining his links to security
forces, according to his lawyer, Fuat Turgut.

"The police manipulated us, now they should protect us," Turgut quoted
Hayal as saying in his letters.

Tuncel, who is suspected of masterminding the killing, reportedly
told the court that he was paid by police for gathering intelligence,
according to a lawyer who attended Monday’s hearing.

Turkey had vowed a thorough investigation, and the governor and police
chief of the Black Sea city of Trabzon, the hometown of Samast, were
removed from office because of negligence. Some security officials
who posed for photographs with the gunman as he held a Turkish flag
were also dismissed.

There has been no evidence that directly implicates any police or
government officials in the slaying of Dink outside his office.

Many Turks are convinced that a so-called "deep state" a network of
state agents or ex-officials, possibly with links to organized crime
periodically targets reformists and other perceived enemies in the
name of nationalism.

"This trial will be a test of whether this quagmire will be dried
up or not," lawyer Kezban Hatemi, representing Dink’s family, told
reporters before the hearing Monday. "The indictment lacks evidence
and there is a need to find out real culprits."

Dink sought to encourage reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia.

But he was prosecuted under Article 301 of Turkey’s penal code,
which bans insults to Turkish identity, for his comments on the mass
killings of Armenians by Turks in the early 20th century.

Justice Sought For Slain Turk Armenian Writer

JUSTICE SOUGHT FOR SLAIN TURK ARMENIAN WRITER

Reuters
Gulf News, United Arab Emirates
July 3 2007

Istanbul: About 1,000 protesters demanded justice yesterday outside
a court where 18 suspects went on trial for the murder of ethnic
Armenian editor Hrant Dink in a case that has raised doubts over free
speech in Turkey.

Dink, whose comments about the massacres of Armenians in Turkey
in 1915 angered Turkish nationalists, was gunned down outside his
Istanbul office in January by a 17-year-old who has confessed to the
killing. More than 100,000 people turned out at Dink’s funeral to
show solidarity and protest against violent ultra-nationalism.

‘Shoulder to shoulder against fascism’, the pro-testers chanted
outside the court in the Besiktas district of Istanbul as the first
hearing began. ‘All of us witnesses want justice’, read their banners.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Armenia, Azerbaijan: A Conflict Of Convenience For Moscow And Washin

ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN: A CONFLICT OF CONVENIENCE FOR MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON

Stratfor
cts/premium/read_article.php?id=291603
July 3 2007

Expectations of a renewed fight between Armenia and Azerbaijan over
the Nagorno-Karabakh region are rising, since Azerbaijan has started
using the huge windfall of cash from its new pipeline to quintuple
its defense budget. This time, the conflict could serve as a spark
for the larger struggle between the United States and Russia.

Analysis

The conflict between Armenia and its neighbor Azerbaijan over the
disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has crescendoed in recent months,
since Azerbaijan has started seeing the enormous cash windfall from its
new pipeline and Armenia has scrambled to secure a protective Russian
presence within its borders. But the conflict between Azerbaijan
and Armenia is about more than the two states and their disputed
territory; the United States and Russia are using that conflict as a
foothold to strengthen their positions in the region as they try to
expel each other.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have long been deadlocked over the small
sliver of land between the two states, though the conflict has
been relatively dormant since the 1994 cease-fire. Technically,
Nagorno-Karabakh is within Azeri territory, though it is controlled by
Armenia. International pressure, lack of support from every nation but
Russia and Iran, and fear of Azeri retaliation have kept Armenia from
annexing the territory. Azerbaijan has been held back from retaking the
land due to international pressure and the Azeri military’s relative
weakness. Russia has maintained a shaky and controversial balance by
supporting both sides.

However, Azerbaijan began to see the possibility of change in 2006
with the completion of its Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline,
which Western companies developed to feed oil to Europe. Azerbaijan
not only became increasingly pro-Western, but it also saw tremendous
new income. Azerbaijan’s president has already decided how he
wants to spend his country’s newfound wealth: on defense. In 2004,
Azerbaijan’s defense spending was approximately $175 million, but by
the beginning of 2008, the country will begin spending at least $1
billion on defense. Armenia recently increased its defense spending
by 20 percent — from $125 million to $150 million, which obviously
pales in comparison to Azerbaijan’s increase. Azerbaijan’s spending
will go mostly toward air offensive capabilities, with Armenia’s
going to air defense, though both now are looking to expand their
ground capabilities.

Armenia simply lacks the influx of energy income that Azerbaijan has.

The enormous Armenian diaspora inside the United States has ensured
that Armenia is one of the largest recipients of U.S. foreign aid,
but Armenia’s neighbors — Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey — have
shunned it economically and politically, leaving it with little
opportunity for trade or expansion. The one neighbor Armenia has an
open relationship with is Iran. In March, Iran and Armenia opened
the Iran-Armenia natural gas pipeline; Iran ships natural gas north
and Armenia converts the natural gas to electricity to export back
south to Iran. The pipeline itself is owned by Russia, as is much of
Armenia’s energy infrastructure, so Yerevan is seeing little money
from the project.

The Armenian-Iranian project is another step in the Armenian-Azeri
power struggle and the impetus for Washington to take sides in the
power shift in the Caucasus. In March, U.S. President George W. Bush
requested a substantial aid cut — nearly 50 percent of economic aid
and 30 percent of military aid — for Armenia, provoking an outcry
from the Armenian-American lobby. Around the same time, the United
States announced plans to increase aid to Azerbaijan by about the
same amount. The U.S. State Department has cited Armenia’s ties with
Iran as the reason for the cut, though a larger battle is brewing in
the Caucasus.

Russia has watched as Azerbaijan and Georgia — two of the three
former Soviet states in the Caucasus — grew more pro-Western and
caused Russia’s strategic set of military bases to slip away. After
the 2004 Rose Revolution in Georgia, Tbilisi ordered Russia to begin
removing its vast military and equipment from its territory.

Officially, Russia said the last of its equipment left Georgia on June
28. Much of the hardware from the Georgian bases was shipped back to
Russia, though quite a bit of it was relocated to Russia’s large base
in Gyumri, Armenia. There is also uncertainty about the relocation
of 40 armored vehicles and 20 tanks; Russia says they are back home,
and Azerbaijan suspects they are in Armenia.

Baku has formally expressed its outrage over Russia’s military ramp-up
in Armenia, though Moscow vows it is not supporting Armenia more
than Azerbaijan. But Baku is also making larger and more serious
threats against the Kremlin. Russia has a strategic and important
anti-ballistic missile (ABM) base, Gabala, in Azerbaijan, for which it
holds a lease through 2016. This is the same base Russia has offered
to the United States for the location of a joint ABM facility. Since
Russia began moving further into Armenia, Azerbaijan has been
"reconsidering" Russia’s lease.

Though this seems devastating to Russia, the Kremlin does not appear
to be caught off guard. In 2005 — around the time Azerbaijan grew
more pro-Western and the BTC was in its final stages — Russia began
construction on an ABM radar base in Armavir, in southern Russia. The
base, similar in scope to Gabala, will be completed in December. It is
as if Russia realized it would eventually be evicted from Azerbaijan.

Washington could have a unique advantage in the Armenian-Azeri-Russian
spat. Though the United States does not want a joint base with
the Russians at Gabala, it would not pass up taking the base for
itself. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates will travel to Baku on
July 9 to discuss this idea, along with the possibility of lily pad
bases in the country.

An eviction from Azerbaijan does not mean Russia will lose its hold in
the Caucasus. Russia is expanding its bases in Armenia and has made
plans to expand the small country’s energy infrastructure through a
series of refineries and deals with Iran. Moreover, Russia knows that
a conflict within the Nagorno-Karabakh region will not only cause
Azerbaijan to spend a good deal of its money on a war, but also will
throw most of the region into chaos — leaving it vulnerable and ripe
for Russia to move in and provide "stability."

Nagorno-Karabakh has been a fight waiting to happen between Azerbaijan
and Armenia, though now it seems the United States and Russia are
behind much of the pressure on these countries.

http://www.stratfor.com/produ