The Times
May 12, 2007
Isolated nation in a sea of instability puts its democracy to the test
Ballot-stuffing and vote-rigging have discredited past elections. This time
Armenia knows it must get it right
Tony Halpin in Yerevan
Fifteen years after it regained independence from the Soviet Union, the tiny
Caucasus republic of Armenia faces its most important test as a democracy.
Ballot-stuffing and fraud have characterised previous elections in this
impoverished country of 3.2 million. The international community has made
clear it will not tolerate a repeat in today’s parliamentary elections.
Aid to the Yerevan Government, worth hundreds of millions of pounds, is at
risk if international observers judge that the elections have been neither
free nor fair.
Washington has tied the prospect of $235 million (£120 million) to clean
elections. The EU has raised doubts about Armenia’s involvement in its
European Neighbourhood Policy if results are rigged again.
Despite annual economic growth that has hit double digits in the past six
years, the impact of aid cuts would be felt hard in a country where close to
a third of the population survive on about £1 a day.
And yet opposition parties say that the corruption in these elections,
although more subtle than before, has been just as pervasive. Several have
already announced plans for street demonstrations tomorrow, convinced that
the results will be rigged.
Spread out in the valley below Biblical Mount Ararat, Armenia claims a rich
history stretching back to the beginnings of civilisation. It was the first
nation to adopt Christianity as the state religion in 301. But its
postSoviet history has been marked by economic collapse, war, a crippling
earthquake and mass emigration.
Neighbouring Georgia became the West’s democratic darling when the Rose
Revolution in 2003 swept Mikheil Saakashvili to power, soon after the last
parliamentary elections in Armenia that were widely condemned as fraudulent.
Today’s elections are a test for Serge Sargsyan, the Prime Minister, and his
ambition to succeed Robert Kocharyan as President next year. Mr Sargsyan,
with a background in the secret services and the military as well as being a
former Defence Minister, was seen as the country’s most powerful figure long
before he became acting prime minister on the sudden death of his
predecessor, Andranik Margarian, in March.
He knows that he must repair his country’s battered image at a critical
moment for its international reputation. In an interview with The Times, the
Prime Minister, whose softly spoken, almost reticent demeamour, belies the
extent of his control of the country, expressed confidence that the
elections would be the "best in the history of independent Armenia", but
acknowledged that a failure to deliver clean results would be costly.
"It will be very bad. The political power that forms a government will be a
weak one that doesn’t enjoy the trust of the people and it will not have
confidence in dealing with its international partners," he said.
Such international partners are critical for a landlocked country whose
every border is afflicted by instability or diplomatic conflict.
Armenia is in talks to settle the 19-year conflict with neighbouring
Azerbaijan over the Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno Karabakh. Mr
Sargsyan, like Mr Kocharyan, is from Karabakh, and played a central role in
organising military forces that eventually routed the Azeri Army.
Turkey closed its border with Armenia more than a dozen years ago as a
gesture of support for Azerbaijan. Ankara also refuses to establish
diplomatic relations because of Yerevan’s campaign for international
recognition of the genocide of more than one million Armenians by Ottoman
Turkey in 1915.
Armenia depends on Georgia and Iran for access to outside markets. But
Russia’s border with Georgia has been closed since October in a row over
spying, and Armenia fears its economy would be almost completely isolated if
international pressure on Iran over its nuclear ambitions, particularly from
the US, leads to an economic embargo.
Armenia has received $1.6 billion from the US since 1992, making it one of
the largest recipients of American foreign aid per capita, thanks mainly to
its influential diaspora. Iran is a major trading partner and a vital source
of gas supplies.
"A deterioration in American-Iranian relations is a very undesirable
development for us. We are concerned not only because Iran is our way to the
outside world but also because of our economic cooperation . . . all of this
would be in jeopardy," Mr Sarkisyan said.
His Republican party is expected to emerge as the largest in the 131-seat
parliament, which it controlled in coalition with two other groups after the
2003 elections. Its principal rival this time is Prosperous Armenia, a party
established only a year ago by Gagik Tsarukyan, a millionaire businessman
and former world arm-wrestling champion.
Mr Kocharyan encouraged the burly oligarch to set up his party, apparently
to draw support away from opposition groups. Critics have repeatedly accused
Mr Tsarukyan’s team of buying votes, but he also seems increasingly popular
with ordinary Armenians who admire his muscular physique and business
acumen.
About 5,000 cheered him at a final campaign rally in his home town of
Abovian, a bleak community about 15 miles outside the capital. Many had been
drawn to the event by the offer of lottery tickets to a draw for prizes that
included a car, televisions and dvd players.
Mr Tsarukyan told the crowd that he was a man of action not words and that
he would not be making "empty promises like those other politicians". His
assistant underlined his style by announcing: "We are not buying your votes,
we want clean elections. But because Mr Tsarukyan has a good heart, he is
giving two ambulances to the town today."
The 2003 elections sparked street protests that were broken up violently by
police. Several opposition parties boycotted parliament, arguing that it was
illegitimate.
This time round, opposition leaders say that teachers and other public
employees have been threatened with the sack unless they support the ruling
party, while television stations, which are under strong official influence,
have been heavily biased in favour of pro-Government candidates. TV
advertising rates have risen sharply.
Others have alleged dirty tricks. The Rule of Law Party, seen as one of the
more serious opposition contenders, complained that its telephones were
being tapped by the Armenian National Security Service.
An attempt was made to discredit party leader Artur Baghdasaryan when a
newspaper close to the authorities published excerpts from a clandestine
recording of a restaurant meeting between Mr Baghdasaryan and a senior
British diplomat. President Kocharyan accused Mr Baghdasaryan of "treason"
for comments on the tape urging the international community to declare the
elections unfair.
Mr Baghdasaryan, a former Speaker of Parliament who now opposes the regime,
said: "I have always said that Armenia has international commitments and if
it doesn’t respect them then there should be a reaction. The traitors of our
country are the ones who rig elections.
"Serious grounds have been created for falsifying the results this time
because the inequalities in the campaign have been so great that there is no
possibility for fair competition.
"We have been ready to tolerate all this, but at least let the election day
be fair. If there are irregularities then we will go out on to the streets
to struggle for our political rights."
Compatriates
– Cher, real name Cherilyn Sarkisian, is of Armenian extraction. She
travelled to the country to support relief workers after the devastating
earthquake in 1988
– Kirk Kerkorian, an Armenian-American investor with a fortune estimated at
$10 billion (£5 billion), played a central role in shaping Las Vegas
– William Saroyan (1908-81), the son of Armenian immigrants, wrote Pulitzer
prizewinning plays and stories of American life in the Great Depression
– Garry Kasparov, below, was born to an Armenian mother in Baku, Azerbaijan,
in 1963. The one-time world chess champion is a political opponent of
President Putin
– Jack Kevorkian, voluntary euthanasia advocate, was born to Armenian
parents. Currently imprisoned in Michigan for second-degree murder of a
patient whose suicide he assisted
– Aram Khachaturian (1903-78), the composer of symphonies, ballets and the
famousSword Dance, was born to Armenian parents in Georgia
Sources: Forbes Rich list; amazon.com ; The William Saroyan Society;
Armenipedia.org ; Armeniandiaspora.com