TURKEY’S GHOST ELECTION
Simon Tisdall
The Guardian – United Kingdom
Published: Mar 22, 2007
Turkey’s presidential race is unusual in one key respect: nobody
is running.
As the April 15 deadline for candidate registration approaches,
political tensions are rising and the media frenzy is growing. By law,
parliament must vote in a successor to Ahmet Necdet Sezer by early
May. But as yet, there are no candidates.
The job is not unattractive, with a comfortable salary and numerous
perks.
He or she can veto legislation and wield wide powers of patronage. But
for many Turks, Muslim or otherwise, their president’s most vital
duty is chief guardian of the secular republic founded in 1923 by
Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. And therein lies the rub.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s popular prime minister, is expected to
seek the post. If he wants it, his parliamentary majority will ensure
success. But opponents and senior military figures claim that as leader
of the "moderate" or "reformed" Islamist Justice and Development party
(AKP), Mr Erdogan cannot be trusted not to subvert the constitution
in pursuit of a covert Islamist agenda.
The increasingly importunate forces of xenophobic ultra-nationalism,
linked to the January murder of ethnic Armenian journalist Hrant Dink,
go further.
They say there is little difference between the AKP and the separatist
Kurdish Workers party (PKK). They say that Mr Erdogan was known as
the "imam of Istanbul" when he was the city’s mayor. And, horror of
horrors, his wife, Emine, wears a headscarf.
Abdullah Gul, Mr Erdogan’s deputy and Turkey’s foreign minister,
dismissed such criticism as irrelevant, saying: "Presidential elections
are always controversial. No one finds these arguments convincing any
more." Mr Erdogan’s reform record, and 35% overall economic growth
in the past four years, spoke for themselves, he said.
The ruling party’s candidates would be declared next month, Mr Gul
said. "We will have a debate. We are listening. But we thought it
was better for the country if we kept this debate in a narrow time
period so it doesn’t damage the country and the economy."
Sukru Elekdag, a senior member of the main opposition Republican
People’s party, promises a rough ride if Mr Erdogan does run. "Some
people think that if he is president, he will not be able to carry out
the job correctly because of his Islamist tendencies," he said. There
were fears that Turkey’s secular and western orientation would change
and it would "slide towards the Islamic sphere".
Political observers including Semih Idiz, a Milliyet newspaper
columnist, say Mr Erdogan may yet wrong-foot his opponents by backing a
more "conciliatory and consensual" AKP presidential candidate. "Vecdi
Gonul, the defence minister, a former governor and apparatchik,
is the sort of prototype figurehead they might choose," he said.
Such a move would enable the charismatic Mr Erdogan to lead the AKP
into this autumn’s general election. Without him, activists fear the
party could fare badly, plunging the country back into the era of
ineffectual coalition govern ance and economic mismanagement.
Guven Sak, director of the Tepav thinktank in Ankara, also believes
Mr Erdogan will not stand. Faced with a divided opposition and a
braggart rightwing fringe, his was a unique opportunity to emulate
Tony Blair and make the once "unelectable" AKP Turkey’s natural party
of government, he suggested.
"The important issue for the man on the street is his livelihood,"
Dr Sak said. "Political tensions are arising from rapid structural
change in the economy and from resulting social change." Turkey
was in the grips of "uncontrolled modernisation" with little help
from outside and it was this social turmoil, more than anger over
Turkey’s EU membership rebuff or "anti-Turkish" western policies,
that was fuelling the ultra-nationalist backlash.
Right now, just keeping on track is Turkey’s biggest challenge. If
Mr Erdogan decides that is easier done as prime minister, his phantom
presidential run will be over before it begins.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
