TURKISH MILITARY SEEKS ARMENIA DETENTE
Jane’s International Security, UK
Feb 12 2007
The assassination of a prominent Turkish-Armenian journalist, Hrant
Dink, on 19 January 2007 in Istanbul renewed attention on Turkey’s
troubled relations with its small neighbour, Armenia.
The record of Turkish-Armenian relations has been blighted by both
Ankara’s refusal to extend normal diplomatic relations to Yerevan
and a trade embargo and transport blockade, imposed on Armenia in
1993 in support of Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
A group of Western-trained young officers brought into senior posts
within the Turkish military’s General Staff authored a preliminary,
semi-official internal study in late 2006 that presented several
new strategic initiatives, including a reconsideration of Turkey’s
long-standing hesitance toward addressing the stalemate with Armenia.
Such recognition has to date been limited to a rather narrow circle
of Turkish elite, defined by a generally progressive, pro-Western
orientation. In the wake of Dink’s murder, however, there has been
a surprising public outpouring of sympathy for Armenians that has,
at least temporarily, bridged the historic enmity between the two
neighbours. This has also triggered a political shift, with public
opinion presently driving and defending a reassessment of Turkey’s
policies regarding Armenia.
For the Turkish government, the Armenian issue offers a new sense of
political advantage, whereby any improvement in its relations with
Armenia can offer a welcome respite to the recent round of vocal
European opposition to Turkish EU membership aspirations.
It is, however, the economic consideration of a possible
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement that is key for decision makers in
Ankara. In fact, less than a week before Dink’s killing, a conference
was held in Yerevan to examine the economic and social implications of
the possible reopening of the Turkish-Armenian border. The conference
brought together leading economists from the US and Europe, as well
as academics and business leaders from Armenia and Turkey.
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