PanARMENIAN.Net
Cooperation with Russia main condition for Karabakh conflict settlement
09.02.2007 16:27 GMT+04:00
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ `In recent months, relations between Georgia and
Russia have deteriorated. The clash between these two states is only a
symptom of the broader strategic positioning of the West and Russia in
and around the South Caucasus. In this scenario, at regional and
global levels, countries and organizations are involved in a struggle
for power and energy security. Considering these two issues, what is
the current situation in the South Caucasus and what can be expected
in the future?’ says the report titled ”Current Geostrategy in the
South Caucasus” issued by Lieutenant Colonel Dr. Marcel de Haas, the
Senior Research Fellow on military doctrine, strategy, and security
policy of NATO, EU, Russia and CIS, at the Netherlands Institute of
International Relations Clingendael in The Hague.
`Affecting the region are the political-military and security policies
of the actors involved. These actors include Georgia, Armenia, and
Azerbaijan, and their "frozen" conflicts of Abkhazia, South Ossetia
and Nagorno-Karabakh. Additionally, the leverage of regional powers,
such as Turkey and Iran, and of global powers, such as the United
States, Russia and China, is part of the power configuration in the
region.
In addition to countries, international organizations are also
involved in this game. At the regional level, there is the Black Sea
Economic Cooperation (BSEC), the Black Sea Force (BLACKSEAFOR) the
Caspian Sea Force (CASFOR), the cooperation between Georgia, Ukraine,
Azerbaijan and Moldova (GUAM) and the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) within the Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS). At the global level, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) and the European Union also exercise political weight in the
South Caucasus.
Washington wants a stable South Caucasus region for its investment in
the energy sector, as well as for its geostrategic interests in the
region. The separatist regions in Georgia — Abkhazia and South
Ossetia — have become areas of the major players’ interests in the
region. With the exception of the tensions surrounding Tbilisi, Russia
has not played a very neutral role in these conflicts. Russia has used
the conflicts as political leverage with the West.
Concerning the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan, the outlook is similar to that of the Georgian
regions. The main foreign actors in this conflict — Russia, the
United States and the European Union — will have to find a
compromise. At the moment, the United States is the party most
interested in solving the conflict and is putting serious efforts into
finding a settlement. Yet, political will and public support has to be
created on both sides. It seems that political pressure is rising on
Azerbaijan and Armenia. The United States — perhaps more than Europe
— has the military, political and economic capacities, and, due to
its investments, the will to force a breakthrough in the
negotiations. Just like the Georgian separatist regions, the main
condition for a solution is cooperation with and by Russia,’ the
report says.