It would be logical to hold such conferences not in Armenia but in Turkey
Yerkir.am
January 19, 2007
Interview with A. Nranian, ARF Bureau advisor on economic issues.
Q: The conference exploring the economic and social consequences
of opening the Armenian-Turkish border was held in Yerevan. Can you
comment on the importance of this event?
A: This is not the first event during which Armenian and foreign
experts discuss the economic consequences of opening the border as
well as the costs and benefits of opening for Armenia. I should first
of all say that my overall impression is that through such events we
are trying to convince the Armenian public that opening the border will
benefit Armenia. Meanwhile, in our discussions we tend to forget that
the border was closed by Turkey in an attempt to pressure the newly
independent Armenia on the issues of Genocide recognition and the
Karabagh conflict. Moreover, the issue of opening the Armenian-Turkish
border is artificially exaggerated in Armenia and the importance of
this issue is overestimated. The problem is clear – Turkey has closed
the border, and Turkey should be the one to open it. It would be much
more logical to hold such conferences in Turkey and not in Armenia.
Q: But aren’t there people opposing opening of the border in Armenia?
A: I don’t think that any expert or political leader in Armenia would
oppose opening of the border.
Q: What is the ARF’s position?
Q: ARF has never opposed opening of the Armenian-Turkish border. ARF
has always opposed going for any political compromises in return for
opening the border because this would mean yielding to the pressure
exerted by Turkey.
We should clearly realize this difference. In the context of the
liberalization of the world economy and international integration in
the modern world blockades and closed borders are unacceptable.
Q: What can you tell about the economic consequences that might follow
the opening of the border?
A: Here we should differentiate between theoretical economic studies
and application of real leverages for practical benefits and losses.
Theoretically, Armenia can export a number of goods to Turkey
(according to a study, the volume of exports from Armenia to Turkey
can reach 100 million dollars). However, in practice, we can see that
despite the open borders with Georgia and Iran the volume of exports
is not very large. The annual export to Georgia and Iran reaches 40
and 30 million dollars respectively.
Therefore, what matters is not the theoretical opportunities but the
capacity to use this opportunities to the best possible extent. Armenia
has a lot to do in this respect.
If we look at the imports, a range of competitive Turkish goods is
imported to Armenia either by air or through Georgia. We should not
wait that there will be any drastic changes in this exports-imports
pattern. I do not think that negative and positive consequences will
immediately follow opening of the border. It will take some time
before such consequences will become noticeable. Our country should
do its best to get prepared for the changes as well as possible.