Pray for countries that believe in empty promises of a superpower

Pray for little countries that believe in empty promises of a superpower

The Independent – United Kingdom; Dec 29, 2006
ROBERT FISK

By this month, Lebanon’s sectarian crisis, its attempted coups d’etat
(by the Iranians, by the Syrians, by the US, take your pick) had
struck even the humble journalist.

Each year at this time, I renew my residence card. To receive my card
from the office of "General Security" at a whacking cost of around
pounds 1,300, I need a valid government-issued press card. To receive
my press card, I need to present the Lebanese ministry of information
with a valid work permit. And to receive a work permit, I have to ask
the minister of labour for his signature on an insurance document. But
– reader, you may have guessed – the Lebanese minister of labour is an
elected member of the Hizbollah. And the Hizbollah – along with other
Shia ministers – has resigned from the elected government of Fouad
Siniora in an attempt to overthrow it, create a "national unity"
government with more pro-Syrian ministers and, if you believe
Siniora’s supporters, prevent the UN tribunal into the murder of the
ex-prime minister, Rafiq Hariri, last year from ever arresting the
culprits.

So after 30 years of legal residency in Lebanon, I now have to apply
for a humble tourist visa each time I arrive at the airport that is
named after the man whose assassination changed the political face of
the country in 2005 and produced elections that, for the first time in
decades, freed the nation from Syrian hegemony and forced Damascus to
withdraw its 22,000 soldiers. It didn’t prevent the continued murder
of Syrian opponents in Lebanon, but those of us who live there no
longer had to look over our shoulders when we talked politics in
Beirut’s best restaurants – or, at least, we could glance over our
shoulders more briefly than before. The US had promised to protect
what the State Department called Lebanon’s "Cedars Revolution". Well,
maybe.

So when 2006 began, Lebanon felt like a safe home again – for its
people as well as foreigners. There were "conciliation" talks in
parliament between men with blood on their hands and men who have no
blood on their hands (yet). General Michel Aoun, the crazed Christian
ex-army officer who had returned from exile to found his own political
party, the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, Rafiq Hariri’s son Saad, the
Christian ex-militia murderer Samir Geagea, even the Hizbollah leader
Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, gathered in central Beirut for coffee,
croissants and manouches (a thick, toasted cheese sandwich) to discuss
how they would work together in the new "Syrian-free" Lebanon (the
quotation marks are a necessary precaution). The problem they had to
confront – and preferred to avoid, especially Nasrallah – was that the
same UN Security Council Resolution that successfully called for the
Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon, also called for Syria’s Hizbollah
guerrilla allies, whose weapons come from Iran, to be disarmed.

Since it had been the Hizbollah that had largely driven the Israeli
army out of Lebanon in 2000 (and since the resolution looked, even to
Jumblatt and others, like a US attempt to "soften up" a powerless
Lebanon for a peace treaty with Israel), it was agreed that the future
of Nasrallah’s earnest and ferocious young men would be regarded as a
local, Lebanese issue rather than an international demand. But the US
and France, who had sponsored the UN resolution, continued to ask when
they could expect the Hizbollah to abide by the UN’s
instructions. Save for a few desultory incursions across the UN’s blue
line to attack an Israeli held-district called Shebaa Farms (which was
Lebanese under the pre-Second World War French mandate but was
regarded by the Israelis as occupied Syria), the Hizbollah was silent;
Nasrallah even indicated to the Lebanese government, in which it had
two ministers, to expect a quiet summer.

But on 12 July, it struck across the border and seized two Israeli
soldiers, killing three others. Four other Israeli troops would be
killed that same day when their tank was blown up by a mine. Israeli
forces had many times captured or kidnapped Hizbollah men in Lebanon
without eliciting a massive bombardment from the guerrillas, or any
protest from the world. But Israel’s response to its soldiers’ capture
was a bombardment of Lebanon that pulverised hundreds of villages, the
Beirut suburbs, more than 40 road bridges, factories and civilian
homes in the capital, along with the headquarters of the Hizbollah
itself. The latter responded with thousands of new, long-range rockets
into Israel, hitting Haifa and other northern cities.

The Israelis blamed Siniora’s powerless government, and the US, hoping
that Israel could fulfil its hopeless boast that it would destroy the
Hizbollah (and thus intimidate Iran into abandoning its nuclear
ambitions) postponed any talk of a ceasefire. George W Bush, along, of
course, with Tony Blair, allowed the bombs to keep falling on Lebanon,
killing a total of 1,300 civilians and a handful of guerrillas and
causing billions of dollars’ worth of damage. So much for Washington’s
support for Lebanon’s democracy.

Hizbollah might not have won its "divine victory", but Israel
certainly lost (Bush said the opposite, of course). Its soldiers
fought to a standstill after one of its warships was set afire, its
top-secret air-traffic control centre was hit by missiles, several of
its major cities were struck by rockets and 40 Israeli troops were
killed inside Lebanon in 36 hours. Fewer than 200 of its people were
killed, more than half of them soldiers. The world, as usual, promised
to rebuild Lebanon. The UN force in southern Lebanon was expanded to
include thousands of Nato troops and the Lebanese acknowledged – at
first – Hizbollah’s courage. But as the scale of the destruction to
the country and the millions of cluster bomblets with which the
Israelis had soaked southern Lebanon was discovered, Hizbollah was
held to account.

Which was when Nasrallah began to demand the overthrow of the
"traitor" Siniora, whose government was "owned" by the US ambassador,
whose ministers had supposedly urged the US to arrange an Israeli
attack on Lebanon. The Hizbollah, in alliance with Aoun’s Christians
(he probably thought he might be made president) called for the
overthrow of the non-Shiite Lebanese cabinet. Lebanon’s Christians
were now dangerously divided between two factions: those loyal to the
messianic Aoun and those who followed Geagea’s gangster politics.
And, to place Lebanon even closer to the ghosts of the civil war, the
Christian minister Pierre Gemayel was killed in east Beirut last
month. The assassins were still at work.

If Lebanon survives into next year, it will be the only "democracy" in
the Arab world to have done so. Afghanistan is crumbling, Iraq is
already a mass grave. The Palestinians face their own inter-factional
catastrophe. But desperate for the help of Syria and Iran to ease his
trapped legions from Iraq, Bush is now urged to deal with Israel’s
Arab opponents. By year’s end, the UN’s tribunal investigator was no
longer blaming Syria for Hariri’s murder and the Lebanese awaited
their second betrayal by the US: to be fed back to Damascus in return
for salvation in Iraq. The world should watch what happens to little
countries that believe in the promises of a superpower – and pray for
their salvation.