DEFENCE MINISTER BUILDING UP IMAGE FOR ARMENIAN PRESIDENTIAL BID – PAPER
Haykakan Zhamanak, Armenia
Dec 6 2006
"Why has Serzh Sarkisyan become so active?"
The hyper-activeness of Defence Minister Serzh Sarkisyan is the
most discussed topic in the domestic political life of Armenia. Such
activeness seems to be premature in the context of a parliamentary
election that will be held on 12 May 2007.
Many people are searching for some other meaning and conclude that the
defence minister is preparing for an event which will happen earlier
than 12 May, an extraordinary event. We were witnesses of such an event
in Russia when President Yeltsin tendered his resignation and yielded
the rudder to prime minister Putin [on 31 December 1999]. This was
done to ensure Putin’s victory at the presidential election as none
of the potential rivals was ready for the early poll.
If we take this scenario in Armenia, it will turn out that – in
order to remodel his power base – Kocharyan is going to tender his
resignation and make Serzh Sarkisyan the president, with all the
remaining contenders not being ready for a presidential election. But
is such a scenario possible in Armenia? It is possible theoretically
but actually there are numerous difficulties.
The Karabakh conflict is the first of them. Today Kocharyan is trying
to show that he is ready to settle the conflict but resignation by him
would amount to ducking out and the world community would not allow
this. That is to say that unless the Karabakh conflict is settled,
Kocharyan has to stay in post till the end of his term.
Moreover, if the incumbent president were to drop out, it would be more
difficult to turn Sarkisyan into the president, because Kocharyan’s
premature departure might seem to many forces a good chance to get
rid of his partner.
A scenario for unilateral actions may be the next option. This might
involve Sarkisyan starting an attack without coordinating it with
Kocharyan. We mean a coup d’etat. The basis of such a prospect may
be the fact that Sarkisyan sees Kocharyan supporting the Prospering
Armenia party so much, and this situation is outside the framework of
the scenario whereby the defence minister would become president. And
Sarkisyan, assuming the impossibility of stopping the process in an
ordinary way, would seize power. This option is even more impossible
as Sarkisyan’s prospect to make himself a civil political activist
would be in vain and he would find himself in the role of an ordinary
putschist.
So why then has Serzh Sarkisyan become so active? The point is that
the incumbent defence minister understood that – despite having
access to much money and many skinheads – he needs public support in
modern politics. And at present he is simply trying to find points
of reconciliation with the public: somebody has told him that his
public image is very negative and his team is trying to correct this
mistake. We think there is no basis to look for another meaning in
all of this.