EurasiaNet, NY
Nov 11 2006
AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT’S VISIT TO MOSCOW: TOUGH TALKS OVER THE ENERGY
ISSUES
Rovshan Ismayilov 11/10/06
Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and his Russian counterpart
Vladimir Putin seem to have engaged in some hard bargaining over
energy and security issues when the two met in the Kremlin on
November 9. While Russia has used its energy assets as tool of
coercion against many former Soviet states, Azerbaijan’s own energy
abundance and export capability enables it to engage Russia on more
of a parity basis.
Aliyev arrived in Moscow for talks with Putin after visiting
Brussels, where the Azerbaijani leader signed a memorandum on energy
cooperation with the European Union, as well as lobbied EU officials
for support on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive]. He also met with top officials of the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Azerbaijan’s ability to act as an
independent energy player in Europe is a source of vexation for
Russian officials, who have pursued policies aimed at achieving
Moscow’s lasting dominance as an EU energy supplier. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Azerbaijani and Russian officials remained tight-lipped on the
specifics of the two presidents’ discussions. All indicators,
however, suggested that Aliyev and Putin jousted over energy and
strategic issues. Publicly, Putin lauded the improvement in
Azerbaijani-EU energy ties. Behind closed doors, Azerbaijani experts
believe the Russian president spared no effort in trying to bind Baku
closer to Russia, and thus get Azerbaijan to moderate energy
cooperation with the EU and strategic ties with the United States and
NATO. Another factor in the discussions likely was Azerbaijan’s own
purchase of Russian natural gas. The price and amount of Russian gas
to be imported by Azerbaijan in 2007 remains up in the air. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Azerbaijan has long pursued policies that have sought to concurrently
strengthen ties with the United States, EU and Russia. Politically,
Aliyev favors tight control of the democratization process, generally
following Putin’s "managed democracy" model, in which the state keeps
a lid on dissent and the non-governmental sector. In the energy and
security spheres, meanwhile, Azerbaijan leans toward the West.
Aliyev is one of the few regional leaders to have good working
relationships with both Putin and US President George W. Bush. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
But balancing US and Russian interests is becoming increasingly
difficult for Azerbaijani leaders as they pursue their top policy
priorities, namely energy exports and a Karabakh settlement that
allows Baku to retain control of the territory.
According to a November 10 analytical report published by Kommersant,
Aliyev indicated to Putin that Baku would take Russia’s interests
into account in Azerbaijani-EU energy matters. "We work together with
you, don’t we; that’s just what I told them [EU officials],"
Kommersant quoted Aliyev as telling Putin, citing a Russian official
source. At the same time, Aliyev reportedly rebuffed Putin’s efforts
to get Azerbaijan to go along with Russia’s economic blockade of
Georgia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The
Russian energy giant Gazprom recently announced a drastic price
increase for its gas exports to Georgia, from $110 per thousand cubic
meters (tcm) to $230 tcm, a hike that Georgian officials have
denounced as politically motivated. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].
Azerbaijan’s own vast reserves of oil and gas enable Aliyev to say
"no" to Moscow. It also gives Baku the ability to pursue an
independent security course. This independence has Russian officials
increasingly worried. At present, Azerbaijan is engaging in a rapid
military buildup, and officials in Moscow worry that this defense
spending binge could be a harbinger of a rapid Azerbaijani move
toward NATO integration. The Kommersant analysis also suggested the
buildup could be a precursor to the establishment of an American
military base in Azerbaijan, although Azerbaijani officials have
repeatedly dismissed the possibility.
Lacking an energy trump card to play against Azerbaijan, Putin has
few levers at his disposal to influence Azerbaijani decision-making.
During their November 9 meeting, Putin reportedly offered significant
economic investment and lucrative arms deals, but neither offer
seemed appealing from the standpoint of enhancing Azerbaijan’s
sovereignty.
While Russia may have little that it can offer Baku, distrust of the
United States and other Western countries seems to be on the rise not
only within Azerbaijani governing circles, but on the grass-roots
level as well. Political analyst Arif Yunusov, in an interview with
the Russian news agency Regnum, said "disappointment with US policy"
was widespread in Azerbaijan, explaining that resentment was growing
over what he characterized as a "hypocritical" Bush administration
policy toward Baku.
"They [Bush administration officials] keep saying that the only thing
they are thinking about is to build democracy in Azerbaijan, but, in
fact, the only thing they are thinking about is how to get our oil
and how to use our territory against Muslims," Yunusov said. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Many Azerbaijanis are frustrated by the lack of follow-up on the US
democratization rhetoric, while officials in Baku continue to worry
about the possibility of Azerbaijani being caught in the middle of a
possible US-Iran conflict.
After his visits to Brussels and Moscow, Aliyev will likely have
trouble making choices that keep all parties – the United States, the
EU, Russia, as well as Georgia – happy. Experts in Baku are reluctant
to predict the country’s future geopolitical course. "We should
follow the situation for the coming few month before we can make
clear conclusions. We have to follow Azerbaijan’s position in the
`Georgia issue,’ and the pace of country’s NATO integration," said
Zafar Guliyev, a political analyst for the Turan analytical group.
Editor’s Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance reporter based in
Baku.