Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
November 3, 2006 Friday
BAKU IS PUTTING COVERS ON ARTILLERY PIECES;
The Azerbaijani establishment is trying to wait it out
by Igor Plugatarev
NEW DETAILS OF THE AZERBAIJANI-ARMENIAN CONFRONTATION OVER
NAGORNO-KARABAKH; Azerbaijan is out to intimidate Armenia with its
economic and military might.
Addressing the national parliament when relations between Moscow and
Tbilisi reached their all-time low, President of Azerbaijan Ilham
Aliyev announced that "we need an aggressive policy, we must attack
again and again" to force Yerevan to pull back from the occupied
Azerbaijani territories.
Aliyev promoted this new policy when the Trans-Dniester region had
already convened the referendum (September 17) where an overwhelming
majority of the population voted for independence from Moldova and
for eventual membership in Russia. A similar referendum in South
Ossetia is scheduled for November 12, and its outcome is easily
predictable. Abkhazia convened a referendum like that several years
ago. Its President Sergei Bagapsh refers to its outcome and promises
to aspire for recognition of the runaway autonomy from the UN, OSCE,
Council of Europe, and European Union on the basis of the plebiscite.
As a matter of fact, Abkhazia has already forwarded the request for
recognition of its independence from Georgia to all international
structures.
In early October, on the eve of celebration of 15th anniversary of
the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, 77 US lawmakers sent a letter to
President George W. Bush urging him to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as
a sovereign state. Authors of the letter made a special emphasis on
"continued efforts aimed at development of democracy and
establishment of a sovereign state in Nagorno-Karabakh." Moreover, it
was not the first such appeal to Bush.
No wonder all of that irritates Azerbaijan enormously. Particularly
since Nagorno-Karabakh keeps an eye on what is happening elsewhere in
the post-Soviet zone and openly supports Tiraspol, Sokhumi, and
Tskhinvali and their actions. Hence the calls for "aggressive policy"
and "attacks" from Baku.
Aliyev proceeded to announce that the attacks "were not an automatic
prelude to war which is of course the last resort." "With all other
factors – economic, political, and otherwise – we will manage to put
Armenia under pressure," the Azerbaijani leader said.
Generally speaking, official Baku is convinced that Azerbaijan holds
an advantage over Armenia. "If we take into account all these factors
along with rapid economic development of Azerbaijan, we will see
opportunities for resolution of the conflict," Aliyev said. "If
Azerbaijan becomes 100 times stronger than Armenia, there will be no
need perhaps to try and use military force to solve the problem."
This is what is new about the latest Azerbaijani rhetoric. Nothing
like that has ever been announced in Baku.
"Using these factors, we must launch an offensive," Aliyev said. "We
have already launched an information attack, time for an economic
one. Armenia is unlikely to withdraw from the occupied territories
unless it is feels this pressure." In other words, official Baku
decided not to oil its automatic rifles and uncover artillery pieces
for the time being. It will deploy "other means" to regain the lost
territories.
Aliyev’s order last year to intimidate Armenia with a dramatic
increase of arms spending is being carried out (in addition to the
expectations of the no less dramatic rate of economic development,
that is). The task he set was quite specific. "Our military budget
must equal the Armenian budget or even exceed it," Aliyev said. The
2006 arms spending in Azerbaijan had been initially planned at a
level of $600 million but actual spending reached $700 million.
That’s more than two 2005 military budgets ($300 million) and four
times the 2004 military budget ($175 million). Reports from Baku
indicate in the meantime that next years military budget may amount
to $900 million.
All of that enabled the Azerbaijani leader to announce a while ago
(on a visit to Germany) that "unless the international community
begins to play a major role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
resolution, the events may take an unexpected turn because there is
no more parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan now."
Stratfor experts say that the Armenian budget in 2005, amounted to
$930 million and Azerbaijani almost $3 billion. As for the Armenian
military budget, it amounted to $155 million in 2005.
Official Yerevan inevitably reacted to every "aggressive" statement
from Baku a year ago, but these days it does not rise to the bait.
Hardly the best tactic in the information war.
On the other hand, Yerevan probably believes that it may always count
on Russia no matter how hard the neighbor is flexing muscles and play
oil and gas cards. Indeed, Russia has a military base in Armenia
where 5,000 men serve. The base is being reinforced with merchandise
from the bases Russia is withdrawing from Georgia. Come to think of
it, the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization is also supposed
to come to Armenia’s help. Its General Secretary Nikolai Bordyuzha
told Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie this January, that should
Azerbaijan send its army to reacquire Nagorno-Karabakh, leaders of
the Organization would take it as an aggression (no need to dwell on
implications). Bordyuzha’s words impressed Baku then.
In the meantime, Azerbaijan has spared neither time nor effort to
advance its relations with Russia. Official Baku is certainly busy.
In any case, no progress at all has been made in the more than 12
years of Azerbaijani-Armenian negotiations since the truce made in
May 1994. Experts believe that the OSCE Minsk Group is but going
through the motions. The OSCE examined the front line between
Armenian and Azerbaijani troops in the middle of October. To quote
Aliyev, Azerbaijan is deploying a "tactic of patience" for the time
being.
Source: Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, No 39, October 27 – November
2, 2006, p. 2
Translated by A. Ignatkin
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
