RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
_________________________________________ ____________________
RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 9, No. 27, 24 July 2006
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL’s Newsline Team
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HEADLINES:
* JOURNALIST SAYS TEHRAN COULD PLAY LEADING ROLE IN RESOLVING
LEBANESE CONFLICT
* VOCAL IN SUPPORT FOR HIZBALLAH, IRANIANS HEAD FOR LEBANON
* BASIJ COMMANDER DENOUNCES AL-QAEDA AND TALIBAN
* MOTTAKI VISITS DAMASCUS
* BAGHDAD MAYOR VISITS TEHRAN
* IRAQ COMPLAINS OF MUJAHEDIN KHALQ INTERFERENCE
* FIRMS LINKED WITH IRANIAN MISSILE PROGRAM IDENTIFIED
* IRAN SETS DEADLINE FOR RESPONDING TO NUCLEAR PROPOSAL
* TEHRAN OPPOSES SIMULTANEOUS ELECTIONS
* WEAK ECONOMY CHALLENGES POPULIST PRESIDENT
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JOURNALIST SAYS TEHRAN COULD PLAY LEADING ROLE IN RESOLVING LEBANESE
CONFLICT. Prominent Iranian journalist Mashallah Shamsolvaezin says
that Iran could play a role in ending the current conflict between
Israel and Hizballah. Shamsolvaezin spoke to RFE/RL correspondent
Golnaz Esfandiari from Tehran about the views of ordinary Iranians
regarding the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hizballah and
filed that interview on July 19:
RFE/RL: How widespread is the public support for Iran’s
official policies in the Middle East and it’s position regarding
the current Lebanese conflict?
Shamsolvaezin: We can’t say with certainty what
percentage of Iran’s people support the official policies of
their government and what percent oppose it because there haven’t
been any scientific polls but, in general, we can say that Iranian
people have shown in their history that they support oppressed people
anywhere in the world from a sentimental point of view and,
especially in the current Israeli war against Lebanon, public opinion
does not accept the destruction Israel is causing in Lebanon and
naturally a significant part of the Iranian people are with the
Lebanese people; therefore they side with the official policy of
their government. I have not seen any statements or any stance
opposing it from political organizations or civil groups.
RFE/RL: Apart from the current conflict in Lebanon, which is
also blamed on Hizballah, what are people’s views about the
government’s support for the Palestinians? Is the Palestinian
cause really one of the main concerns for Iranians, as some officials
claim?
Shamsolvaezin: This is a question you can ask in all
countries; is the sending of troops to Iraq or Afghanistan to help
bring peace and democracy really the main issue for American or
French people? Governments and politicians define a country’s
national interests and even though this is a limited group of people
it represents the country’s reason in guiding national interests
toward defined goals, and Iran is not an exception to this rule.
RFE/RL: What are people’s views on the Lebanese
Hizballah? Is it a respected movement among ordinary Iranians and how
do they react to Iran’s support for Hizballah?
Shamsolvaezin: Iranian people see a difference between it and
similar movements that exist in Iran under the same title and are
usually active in opposing intellectuals and disrupting democratic
gatherings. They consider the Lebanese Hizballah as a resistance
force that has popular support — this view is common among
politicians and journalists — and this is partly because of its
popularity, its actions and, to a certain degree, because its honesty
in politics and on economic issues is respected. Of course this
doesn’t prevent some groups in Iran from condemning and
criticizing Iran’s support for Hizballah, which deprives some
poor parts of [Iran] from certain economic privileges and comfort.
This [issue] does comes up.
RFE/RL: Is it also the case with Iran’s help to the
Palestinians? Is its also being criticized?
Shamsolvaezin: Yes, it can bee seen but not from political
organizations or groups, [only] in informal public gatherings, family
meetings, or in protests that are made against Iran’s policies;
people say the government should first make our country progress and
improve people’s lives and then help should be sent to other
countries including, Palestine or Lebanon. Iran’s ideological
connection or the ideological situation that prevails in Iran’s
establishment does not prevent Iranian people from expressing their
solidarity with the oppressed Palestinian people. Iranians want to
see peace in the Middle East and they want the UN Security
Council’s resolutions to be applied to all equally.
RFE/RL: What are the views of Israeli policies? Iranian
officials say there is public hatred and anger toward Israeli
actions.
Shamsolvaezin: The extent of destruction Israel has started
in Lebanon has brought to Iranians minds the memories of vast Israeli
attacks in many Mideast regions. The current generation, the new
generation, has a more logical stance toward Israel and Arabs. By
logical I mean that young people believe there should be peace in the
Middle East and the governments of Israel and Palestine should live
side by side peacefully. But the Israeli actions — for example its
attacks on Lebanon’s infrastructure, attacks on airports,
bridges, and civilian houses — have negatively influenced
people’s views on Israel. As a result Israel is slowly losing
Iranian public opinion as it was lost before in the Middle East.
RFE/RL: Iran is being accused by Israel and some observers as
being behind the current conflict in Lebanon. Iranian officials have
denied that and said they only give moral and spiritual support to
Hizballah. What is your view?
Shamsolvaezin: It is very clear that Lebanon’s Hizballah
is fighting by itself and it began its resistance [many, many years
ago.] It is Hizballah that has the initiative in its hand; it is a
local force and it is fighting Israel because Israel has occupied the
south of Lebanon for years.
RFE/RL: Do you think Iran can use its influence on Hizballah
and play a role in ending the current conflict?
Shamsolvaezin: This is an important issue. If Iran’s role
in connection with Afghanistan and Iraq — its constructive role —
is [positively] evaluated by the U.S. and, if Iran’s position is
considered in whole: its nuclear case, the crisis in Iraq, and
Afghanistan, and the current conflict; if Iran’s role is being
recognized by the U.S. it seems that Iran could use its political
weight and [influence] to reduce this crisis and resolve it. Iran has
officially expressed its readiness to resolve this crisis and now
it’s the U.S. and the EU’s turn to give a positive answer to
Iran’s position or its capability and bring Iran into this arena
to use its political weight to reduce the crisis and put an end to
it.
RFE/RL But while Iran’s foreign minister has suggested a
few ways to end the conflict, including a cease-fire, other officials
have used other terms, including parliamentary speaker Gholam-Ali
Haddad-Adel, who [on July 18] praised [Hizballah leader] Hassan
Nasrallah and quoted him as saying that the war has just begun.
Shamsolvaezin: Currently Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah has become a
symbol of resistance against Israel in the whole Middle East; he has
turned into a courageous international figure, therefore comments
like that should not be considered as the official policy of a
country. The demonstrations and support for Palestinians and Lebanese
has spread in the region and Iran is not an exception to this rule.
The difference between Iran and other countries in the region is that
the Iranian government supports the Palestinians and Lebanese and it
has a clear anti-Israeli stance, therefore the people do not feel
that they need to act themselves.
VOCAL IN SUPPORT FOR HIZBALLAH, IRANIANS HEAD FOR LEBANON. The
Islamic Republic of Iran has served as an ideological inspiration for
Hizballah since the Lebanese militant group’s creation in 1982,
and Tehran acknowledges that it supports the organization morally and
politically. A prominent Iranian journalist, furthermore, recently
told RFE/RL that many of his compatriots sympathize with Hizballah
and view it as a legitimate resistance organization
( /2006/7/8FDBDC91-8CC0-4139-80F2-
D4D9C53419BA.html ). The extent of the Iranian government’s
involvement with the June 12 kidnapping of Israeli soldiers by
Hizballah and the earlier kidnapping of an Israeli soldier by Hamas
is far from clear, however, and Tehran has denied that it is involved
in the current conflict. Nevertheless, Tehran has been active in
generating public outrage over the events in Lebanon, and even if
Iranian military personnel are not going there openly, other Iranians
are volunteering to do so.
Volunteers head for Lebanon.
Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the father of the revolution
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, said in a July 18 letter to Hizballah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah that he is ready to go to Lebanon
to fight the "enemies of Islam and humanity," Iranian state
television reported. Khomeini met with Nasrallah during a July 2
visit to Damascus, IRNA reported at the time.
The Pro-Justice Student Movement announced on July 15 that a
convoy of students will be sent to Palestine and to Lebanon in the
coming week, ILNA reported.
A spokesman for the Commemoration Headquarters for the
Martyrs of Islam’s World Movement, identified only as Mohammadi,
said on July 16 that 27 members who have been trained to carry out
suicide bombings have been sent to Lebanon, Mehr News Agency
reported. These individuals will take action if Israel attempts to
occupy Lebanon, he said, and they also are ready to form resistance
cells.
Iran’s Basij Resistance Force, which is an arm of the
Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, issued a statement on July 16 in
which it condemned the Israeli attack on Lebanon, condemned Western
governments that support Israel, and pledged support for the
Palestinians, according to the Basij News Agency ().
The statement added, "the Basij Resistance Force believes that
Israel, the region’s rancid cancerous tumor, must be wiped off
the map."
Iranian Military Leaders Voice Caution
While this sort of enthusiasm and self-sacrifice is almost
certainly welcomed by the Iranian leadership, the Iranian armed
forces seems to have a greater sensitivity to the repercussions of
amateurish Iranian combatants being captured or killed in Lebanon.
General Mohammad Hejazi, commander of the Basij, said on July
21 that groups with no official connections or proper authorization
had raised the possibility of dispatching volunteer suicide bombers
to Lebanon, Fars News Agency reported. Hejazi said this is nothing
more than "propaganda," and although it might be well-intentioned it
does not help Iran or Hizballah. "There no doubt exists better ways
to defend the Islamic resistance," he added.
In addition, allegations that Iranian military supplies and
even personnel were involved in the conflict appeared almost as soon
as hostilities commenced
( 06/7/541D7659-F99F-4559-8281-
3949D4FA3AF7.html). Most recently, long-time defense correspondent
Ze’ev Schiff wrote in "Ha’aretz" on July 21 that Iranian
munitions are being trucked to Hizballah via Syria, and the Iranian
embassy is coordinating actual military operations. Schiff noted that
the long-range Zilzal missiles that Iran has allegedly provided to
Hizballah have not been used yet.
Hejazi of the Basij dismissed such allegations in his July 21
comments, adding that Israel makes unsubstantiated statements to hide
its own failures.
Major General Hassan Firuzabadi, head of the Armed Forces
General Staff, said on July 22 that there will be no Iranian military
involvement in the Lebanese conflict, IRNA reported. "The Islamic
Republic of Iran will just continue its political and diplomatic
support for Lebanon," he said. Firuzabadi added that U.S. President
George W. Bush and U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair planned the war.
Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the Iranian ambassador to the United
Nations in New York, said on July 21 that everybody knows who is
really responsible for events in the Middle East, IRNA reported. He
dismissed all the allegations against Iran and added that all the
problems in the region stem from occupation and its consequences.
"These allegations emanate from the occupying regime and relayed by
Zionist quarters across the globe to overshadow its crimes and excuse
its recent chronic setbacks in the face of a growing resistance in
Palestine and Lebanon," he said.
Praise From The Pulpits
While the Iranian government is keen to avoid the appearance
of being involved with the current conflict, it has been quick to
whip up public sentiments over the issue, possibility with the
intention of diverting attention from more pressing problems, such as
unemployment
( cle/2006/7/CDCCDE09-8BDD-4888-89A7-
6D8660D98524.h tml). There are hundreds of Friday Prayer leaders in
Iran who are appointed by the central government and whose sermons
are dictated or at least outlined by a central authority. Praise for
Hizballah and criticism of the United States and Israel were major
aspects of the sermons on July 21.
In Tehran, Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani said events
in Lebanon and in Gaza were "engineered by the U.S. and Israel,"
state radio reported. The plan was prepared "weeks in advance," he
said. Rafsanjani criticized international human rights organizations
for their silence on these events. The Lebanese and Hizballah have
survived and "resisted well," he said, adding, "They are the heroes,
both Hezbollah members and the Hezbollah leader, our dear brother
Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah. He is truly a historical figure in our world
today."
Hashemi-Rafsanjani suggested that southern Lebanon might be
occupied by foreign pro-Israeli forces. He explained, "To remove
their citizens, several powerful countries, such as Canada, America
and Britain, are bringing in military troops. Of course it is
apparently for taking out their citizens but things could happen."
In the southwestern city of Ahvaz, Hojatoleslam Mohsen
Heidari also criticized human rights organizations for their alleged
silence, Khuzestan Province television reported. "With a green light
from Western governments, particularly America, the criminal Israel
is murdering the oppressed people of Lebanon and Palestine," he
added. Hizballah, he continued, is representing the Islamic world,
and Arab and Muslim government are therefore obliged to help it.
In Mashhad, Hojatoleslam Seyyed Ahmad Elmolhoda said
Hizballah’s resistance has revealed Israel’s "aggressive
visage of profanity and apostasy," IRNA reported. He called on
Islamic countries to provide greater support for Hizballah. Elmolhoda
added, "We hope that Israel, like the Taliban and Saddam which were
the protégés of world arrogance, one day will turn into a source of
disgrace and humiliation for America."
In the southern city of Bandar Abbas, Ayatollah Gholam Ali
Naimabadi said, "Without a doubt, Israel is the manifestation of
America’ wrath," IRNA reported. He called for Muslims to
"annihilate these superpowers."
In the city of Zanjan, Hojatoleslam Mohammad Taqi Vaezi also
spoke out against human rights organizations for their inaction, Mehr
News Agency reported. "The UN and the Security Council are tools in
the hands of Western countries, especially America," he said, calling
on Muslim states to act.
In Ardabil, Hojatoleslam Hassan Ameli told his congregation
that Hizballah did the right thing by seizing the Israeli soldiers
and firing missiles at Israel, IRNA reported. Western silence shows
that its pro-democracy slogans are meaningless, he added.
Anti-Israeli Rallies Across Iran
Pro-Hizballah and anti-Western statements were not confined
to the pulpit, and there were related rallies across the country.
Senior officials, political activists, students, and members of the
public participated in a July 18 rally in Tehran against Israeli
activities in Palestine and Lebanon, IRNA reported. Parliamentarian
Hussein Muzaffar read out a statement from the legislature in which
Israeli activities were denounced as "brutal aggression" and
"savagery," IRNA reported. The statement criticized the U.S. for
vetoing an anti-Israeli resolution in the UN Security Council.
Ali Zoham, the Hizballah envoy in Tehran, also spoke at the
July 18 rally, Fars News Agency reported. "We are now fighting with
the worst creatures of God," he said. The conflict is not about the
Israeli soldiers kidnapped by Hizballah on June 12, Zoham said,
"Rather, this is an idealistic, ideological, and cultural war — the
war of Islam with blasphemy." Zoham said Hizballah is willing to
fight for another century, until it "demolish[es] the Israeli regime
exactly the same way that we destroyed the Israeli townships,
settlements, and navigation fleet."
Numerous rallies took place in the southwestern Khuzestan
Province. At the July 19 event, a demonstrator said, "Israel is
another word for America," according to provincial television.
Another said, "America and Britain naturally support Israel."
The Khuzestan Province representative to the Assembly of
Experts, Ayatollah Abbas Kabi, said on July 20 that the Zionists are
trying to wipe out Muslims, provincial television reported. He urged
locals to participate in a rally the next day. He added, "If the
Zionists consider the myth of Holocaust as acts of anti-human crime,
they themselves are now committing bigger anti-human crimes in
Lebanon and Palestine."
Tens of thousands of people participated in a July 21 rally
in Ahvaz, provincial television reported. They chanted "Death to
Israel," and a young girl said, "I have come here today to tell the
children of Palestine and Lebanon that we support them."
Denials From Hizballah
With the outset of hostilities, Israeli officials immediately
portrayed Hizballah as an instrument of Iranian and Syrian policy,
but several Lebanese observers reject this perspective.
"To suggest Hizballah attacked [Israel on July 12] on the
orders of Tehran and Damascus is to grossly oversimplify a strong
strategic and ideological relationship," Lebanese American
University’s Professor Amal Saad-Ghorayeb wrote in a July 15
commentary in "The Guardian." Syria, Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas have
overlapping interests and "form a strategic axis." However, Hizballah
has "never allowed any foreign power to dictate its military
strategy."
Leading figures in Hizballah also deny that Iran is telling
the organization what to do. Haj Hassan Hussein, a Hizballah deputy,
said, "We acknowledge that Iran helps us in humanitarian and civilian
matters but we are the masters of our decisions," "Le Figaro"
reported on July 21.
Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hizballah,
said on July 20 that neither Iran nor Syria was informed of plans to
kidnap the Israelis, Al-Jazirah reported. Nasrallah said a conflict
involving Lebanon could last three months but it will eventually end,
and it will have no impact on the Iranian nuclear case. Moreover, he
added, a Hizballah that is weakened in a war will be less able to
help Iran.
Nasrallah said the homes of all leading Hizballah figures
have been destroyed, and to suggest that they were acting in the
interest of Iran or Syria is insulting. "Yes, we are friends of Syria
and Iran, but for 24 years we benefited from our friendship with
Syria and Iran for the sake of Lebanon." (Bill Samii)
BASIJ COMMANDER DENOUNCES AL-QAEDA AND TALIBAN. In Mashhad,
Brigadier-General Mohammad Hejazi, commander of the Basij Resistance
Force, said on July 18, "Today, we can hear the crushing of the
Zionist regime’s bones," ISNA reported. He added that the Islamic
community is praying for victory on the part of young Palestinians
and Lebanese. Hejazi denied that Iranians are involved in the
fighting in Lebanon, and said such accusations stem from Israeli
embarrassment. Hejazi criticized Al-Qaeda and the Taliban, who claim
they are fighting the occupiers of Iraq and Afghanistan and are not
involved with events in Lebanon and Palestine. The failure of Taliban
and Al-Qaeda to act, he continued, "shows that these groups were
created by America and that they are still influenced by Western and
Zionist power." (Bill Samii)
MOTTAKI VISITS DAMASCUS. Manuchehr Mottaki arrived in Damascus on
July 17, Iran’s Arabic-language television station Al-Alam
reported from Iran and the Hizballah television station Al-Manar
reported from Lebanon. Mottaki and Syrian Vice President Faruq
al-Shar’a condemned Israeli activities in Lebanon and Palestine,
and they expressed solidarity with the Lebanese and Palestinian
"resistance," Syrian state news agency SANA reported. They called for
a united Arab and Islamic stance on these issues. Mottaki called for
a cease-fire and a prisoner exchange between Israel and Hizballah.
(Bill Samii)
BAGHDAD MAYOR VISITS TEHRAN. Baghdad Mayor Sabir al-Isawi arrived in
Tehran on July 15 and met with his counterpart, Mohammad Baqer
Qalibaf, Mehr News Agency reported. Qalibaf offered his
municipality’s assistance in a variety of areas, from traffic
services to engineering. Al-Isawi said he hopes Tehran will sign the
sister city agreement proposed by Baghdad six months earlier than
originally planned. (Bill Samii)
IRAQ COMPLAINS OF MUJAHEDIN KHALQ INTERFERENCE. Iraqi Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki told reporters at a July 19 press briefing in Baghdad
that an Iraq-based Iranian opposition group known as the Mujahedin
Khalq Organization (MKO or MEK) is interfering in internal Iraqi
affairs and must go, "Los Angeles Times" reported on July 20.
The MKO is listed as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the
U.S. State Department and operates under many cover names, including
National Council of Resistance of Iran and People’s Mujahedin
Organization of Iran. The MKO was based in Iraq and operated against
Iran at Saddam Hussein’s behest; most of its members now reside
in Camp Ashraf (100 kilometers from Baghdad) where they enjoy the
Geneva Convention’s "protected person" status. The MKO reportedly
has the support of some Pentagon officials and members of Congress
because of its opposition to Iran.
Al-Maliki said the MKO was too involved in his country’s
political and social issues. "It is interfering as if it is an Iraqi
organization, despite the fact that it is considered to be one of the
terrorist organizations and its presence in the country contradicts
the constitution," said the premier, who has close ties with Tehran.
He added that the government currently has no contact with the group.
The group reportedly responded to al-Maliki on July 19, saying that
the premier was carrying out the wishes of Iran.
Hassan Kazemi-Qomi, the Iranian ambassador to Iraq, and
Iraq’s Deputy Interior Minister for Security Affairs Shirvan
Vaeli discussed the MKO’s future on July 21, IRNA reported. The
Iraqi official reportedly called for the group’s expulsion from
his country, and he added, "We are now preparing a comprehensive plan
which requires approval of the government to expel the MKO from the
country by the year end."
"A significant number of MEK personnel have voluntarily left
the Ashraf group, and several hundred of them have been voluntarily
repatriated to Iran," according to the State Department’s 2006
"Country Reports on Terrorism." (Kathleen Ridolfo, Bill Samii)
FIRMS LINKED WITH IRANIAN MISSILE PROGRAM IDENTIFIED. Iranian state
television reported on July 19 that many of the world’s biggest
businesses have ties with Israel or have "Zionist" shareholders, and
it mentioned Coca-Cola, Marlboro, McDonalds, Timberland, and several
other firms. Money spent on their products, state television
reported, "turns into hot lead to rip open the chests of the children
of Palestine and Lebanon."
On the previous day, the U.S. Treasury Department listed two
Iranian businesses for their ties with the country’s missile
program, according to a press release. Sanam Industrial Group and Ya
Mahdi Industries Group are "owned or controlled by, or act or purport
to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, the Aerospace
Industries Organization (AIO)." The report adds: "AIO is a subsidiary
of the Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics, and
manages and coordinates Iran’s missile program and oversees all
of Iran’s missile industries." The two firms have made extensive
purchases of missile-related products. The designation is meant to
isolate Iranian proliferation. (Bill Samii)
IRAN SETS DEADLINE FOR RESPONDING TO NUCLEAR PROPOSAL. In a statement
read out on state television on July 20, Supreme National Security
Council Secretary Ali Larijani set out Iran’s stance on the
nuclear issue. The international proposal submitted to Iran in early
June in an effort to resolve the continuing crisis over the
country’s nuclear program requires a great deal of attention and
study, according to the statement, and Iran will announce its views
on August 22 (see "RFE/RL Iran Report," June 12, 2006). According to
the statement, Iran plans to use nuclear power to produce 20,000
megawatts of electricity over the next 20 years, and in order to do
this it must produce its own nuclear fuel.
The statement added that Iran has always cooperated with the
International Atomic Energy Agency and abided by its Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty commitments.
Iran is being subjected to discriminatory practices that aim
to deprive the majority of the international community of nuclear
power, and the statement cited the Non-Aligned Movement, the
Organization of the Islamic Conference, and the Developing-8 (D-8;
Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and
Turkey) as supporters of this view.
Government spokesman Gholam-Hussein Elham said on July 18
that the June proposal is a "good starting point for negotiations,"
IRNA reported. He said Iran remains optimistic about a negotiated
solution to the standoff, and he described the current atmosphere as
"positive."
Also on July 18, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad said Iran will
continue enriching uranium, ISNA reported. A halt to uranium
enrichment is one of the international community’s demands of
Iran (see "RFE/RL Iran Report," June 5, 2006). Ahmadinejad said
mastery of the complete nuclear fuel cycle is the Iranians’
right. Earlier in the day, Ahmadinejad said Iran is willing to hold
talks with the European powers, IRNA reported, and he urged the
United States not to cause problems.
Also on July 18, talks began at the UN in New York on a
Security Council resolution demanding a halt to Iranian enrichment
activities and on the construction of a reactor in Arak, Reuters
reported. Participants were China, France, Germany, Russia, the
United Kingdom, and the United States. Russian and Chinese diplomats
were reportedly not seriously engaged, participants said, because
they had not received instructions from their capitals.
Alaedin Borujerdi, chairman of the legislature’s National
Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on July 18 that the
parliament is ready to cancel the country’s membership in the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if the UN Security Council
passes a resolution against Iran, Mehr News Agency reported. Iran
signed the NPT in 1968 and ratified it in 1970.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi said during a
July 16 press conference in Tehran that referring Iran to the UN
Security Council for its failure to cooperate on the nuclear issue is
not "constructive," state television reported. Doing so will not
contribute to a negotiated solution, he added.
Turning to the package of incentives Tehran received in early
June, Assefi said, "we considered the proposed package as a proper
basis for cooperation…but we also think it is a potential that
needs to be processed further." The only way to accomplish anything,
he said, is through negotiations. Until that happens, "we cannot be
certain what our response would be."
In Mashhad on July 15, Supreme National Security Council
Deputy Secretary Gholamreza Rahmani-Fazli told a meeting of Basij
officials from Khorasan Razavi Province that Iran is prepared to
begin talks about its nuclear program, IRNA reported. It will not,
however, accept any preconditions. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN OPPOSES SIMULTANEOUS ELECTIONS. Government spokesman
Gholam-Hussein Elham said on July 19 in Tehran that the government of
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad opposes holding elections for municipal
councils and the Assembly of Experts on the same date, Mehr News
Agency reported. Campaigning for the entities differs, he said, and
holding the elections simultaneously requires additional planning and
preparation. The elections are scheduled for November 17 (see "RFE/RL
Iran Report," 12 May 2006). (Bill Samii)
WEAK ECONOMY CHALLENGES POPULIST PRESIDENT. The biggest problems
facing elected officials in Iran are economic ones, particularly
double-digit unemployment and inflation. These factors dogged
President Mohammad Khatami during his term in office (1997-2005), and
the reformists’ focus on civil-society development resounded
poorly with people who often could not afford meat with their meals.
Mahmud Ahmadinejad’s campaign promise that Iran’s oil
revenues would end up on Iranians’ tables, therefore, contributed
greatly to his winning the 2005 presidential election. In recent
weeks, Ahmadinejad has pledged to do more to resolve the
country’s unemployment problem, but national media and
parliamentarians have become quite critical of the
administration’s failures in this area.
Battling Joblessness
Unemployment is one of the country’s biggest problems,
Ahmadinejad said on July 11, IRNA reported, and job creation is a
major aspect of the government’s development plan. "The
government intends to tackle the unemployment problem with assistance
from the people and principled planning," he told residents of the
town of Malekan in East Azerbaijan Province.
The Central Bank of Iran reported that the unemployment rate
was 12.1 percent as of March 20, 2006, Fars News Agency reported on
June 5. The overall population was 68.6 million and the working
population was 22.3 million. Yet some economists believe the
unemployment rate could be as high as 20 percent, and they add that
underemployment is a major problem.
Deputy Minister for Labor and Social Affairs Ebrahim
Nazari-Jalali provided a slightly higher joblessness figure — 12.4
percent — in a July 3 interview, IRNA reported. He went on to say
that the government is determined to reduce this to 8.4 percent by
2010 by creating 900,000 jobs annually. Jalali added that the
government has earmarked 180 trillion rials ($20.5 trillion) for
small businesses in an effort to create jobs.
Ahmadinejad discussed economic policy in a June 7 interview
with state television, saying that officials have held many meetings
on employment generation. Ahmadinejad also noted the allocation of
180 trillion rials for projects that he predicted will produce quick
results. Ahmadinejad made the same points during speeches in April.
These job-creation targets are ambitious and the government
has failed to meet similar goals in the past. The government aimed to
create 3.8 million jobs (760,000 a year) from 2000-05, in an effort
to reduce unemployment to 11.5 percent. Yet it conceded that only 2.3
million jobs (431,000, 493,000, 690,000, and 700,000) were created
from 2000-04.
Economic Populism
Western journalists noted Ahmadinejad’s popularity with
average Iranians when they assessed his standing a year after his
election. "The Wall Street Journal," for example, reported on June
22: "The president’s popularity is soaring thanks to…his
embrace of economic populism." "Ordinary people marvel at how their
president comes across as someone in touch, as populist candidate
turned caring incumbent," "The Washington Post" reported on June 3,
adding that Ahmadinejad shows "a relentless preoccupation with
health, housing and, most of all, money problems."
The populist touch is good politics, but it is not always
easy to translate into a sustainable economic policy. In early June,
50 scholars wrote to Ahmadinejad and warned him about the state of
the economy. They criticized his economic policies as inflationary
and counter to previous economic plans. The economists highlighted
grievances like excessive state intervention in business and
restrictive employment regulations. They pointed to increased imports
and government spending and noted broader issues they say contributed
to economic problems.
Lack Of Expertise?
Iranian media also criticized the president’s economic
policies and their impact on employment. "Kargozaran" newspaper —
which is connected with the technocratic Executives of Construction
Party — commented on June 1 that the government recently made three
decisions that were meant to create jobs and protect domestic
production, but the decisions did not account for the interdependence
of economic factors. For example, interest rates at banks were
reduced by 2 percent, but the rush to borrow forced the government to
withdraw $5.1 billion from the foreign-currency reserves. In another
case, import tariffs were increased by roughly 5.2 percent, and this
led to an increase of up to 1,500 percent in the prices of household
goods, cellular phones, shoes, and textiles. The government’s
increase in the minimum wage for temporary workers led to large-scale
layoffs.
An analysis in the pro-reform "Mardom Salari" on June 19
noted that although Ahmadinejad promised during his campaign that
people would benefit directly from oil revenues, he and his
associates subsequently denied any such statement. Meanwhile, one
mistake by the government cost 50,000 people their jobs, the article
continued, and the overall unemployment rate has increased. Mohammad
Khoshchehreh, a former adviser to Ahmadinejad, said 100,000 people
have been laid off since March, and many of those who still have jobs
will not get raises or have not been paid for months.
The Ahmadinejad administration has failed politically and
economically, the pro-reform "Etemad-i Melli" editorialized on July
13, and unemployment, inflation, and a general reduction in public
welfare are the outcome of its policies. The Strategic Council for
Foreign Relations (Shora-yi Rahbordi-yi Ravabet-i Khareji) was
created to utilize the views of more experienced individuals in the
area of foreign policy, the article continued, and a similar step is
needed in the economic arena.
Lawmakers Air Critical Views
Ahmadinejad defended his efforts during a July 9 meeting of
cabinet members and provincial governors-general. "The
government’s economic policies are quite transparent and based on
planning and reason," Ahmadinejad said, according to IRNA. This is
not the impression of some members of parliament, who presumably are
in close contact with their constituents and see the impact of
government economic policies first-hand.
The administration’s policies have led to unemployment,
Ardabil’s Nureddin Pirmoazen said during the June 18 session, as
well as high prices, inflation, and recession, "Sharq," "Resalat,"
and "Jomhuri-yi Islami" reported on June 19.
"Today, unemployment has turned into one of the greatest
problems of youths and their families," Tehran’s Alireza Mahjub
said during the June 18 session, "Jomhuri-yi Islami" reported on June
19. "Today the unemployment issue has even affected middle-class
families and the educated classes of society. Unfortunately, this
crisis is growing worse every day." Mahjub added that job security is
a major problem.
The nation is facing significant economic difficulties,
Nahavand’s Mohammad Taqi Kavianpur said during the July 9
session. "The source of most of these problems is the unemployment of
educated and job-seeking youths," he asserted, according to
"Jomhuri-yi Islami" on July 10. He said the government has
consistently failed to achieve its job-creation goals, and its
reliance on trial-and-error furthers unemployment.
"If we don’t settle the problem of unemployment the
government will face a challenge much more serious than the energy
shortage crisis," Miandoab’s Assadullah Tabeh warned on July 11,
"Jomhuri-yi Islami" reported the next day. Tabeh hinted that
unemployment has had the greatest impact on the country’s poorest
people.
During a conference in Mashhad on July 11, Tehran
representative Mohammad Khoshchehreh said the government’s
monetary, commercial, and employment policies are not coordinated,
Mashhad television reported. A focus on the agriculture and
construction sectors, Khoshchehreh continued, would help create jobs.
Worker Dissatisfaction Produces Unrest
The difficulties faced by workers come to the fore during
occasional strikes and other labor actions.
Speaking on behalf of dismissed state bus-company employees
on July 15, Said Torabian said six people were arrested at a
demonstration that day, ILNA reported. Another three went to the
Labor Ministry to meet with officials and were arrested there. Ali
Jahanbakhsh, director of the political-disciplinary office of
Tehran’s Governorate-General, said on July 15 that a permit for a
July 16 bus-drivers demonstration in Tehran was denied because the
event would cause traffic problems, ILNA reported.
More than 200 workers at a Tehran soft-drink factory began a
strike on July 10, ILNA reported. The majority of the workers are on
contract, rather than being permanent employees, and they say they
had not been paid for the first three months of the Iranian year
(which began on 21 March) and have not received all their benefits
from the previous year.
Employees of the Industrial Growth and Development business
in Azerbaijan Province signed a petition on June 29 protesting their
mass dismissal, ILNA reported. The petition noted that although one
group of workers was dismissed, the firm continues to employ people
who have officially retired or are filling two positions.
Employees of a china and porcelain factory in Tabriz staged a
protest on June 27 against five months of wage arrears, ILNA
reported. During that time, workers told ILNA, they only received a
onetime payment of 500,000 rials (roughly $57). The factory’s
managing director told ILNA he would pay the employees as soon as he
can, but there has been a slump in demand for the plant’s
products.
Ahmadinejad’s statements indicate that he is aware of the
unemployment situation. The financial cushion provided by high
earnings from oil and gas exports, however, means that serious and
potentially painful steps are not necessary in the short term.
According to International Monetary Fund statistics, oil and gas
exports brought in $55 billion this year, compared to $23 billion in
2002-03. Foreign-currency reserves are approximately $47 billion and
could reach $62 billion by the end of the year. As long as these
funds are available, the government can continue to ease the
difficulties of unemployment through subsidies and other forms of
charity rather than embarking on systemic reforms.
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Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The "RFE/RL Iran Report" is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services. It is distributed every Monday.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
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