Vafa Guluzade: Moscow does not want peace bw Azerbaijan and Armenia

Regnum, Russia
June 30 2006

Vafa Guluzade: Moscow does not want peace between Azerbaijan and
Armenia

In an interview to Analitika.az former state advisor for
international relations, political scientist Vafa Guluzade says that
`Armenia has no personal opinion, it does everything as Russia says.’
`Even if Armenia is pressured by the US into concluding peace
agreement, the Nagorno Karabakh Armenians will reject this peace. The
objective of all these talks is to give the Azerbaijani lands to
Armenia. However, Russia does not want this. In fact, it does not
want peace, at all, as in such case Armenia may ask it to withdraw
its bases from its territory and then may join NATO. The resolution
of the conflict will also allow Armenia to join regional energy and
transport projects. Russia does not want this to happen. That’s why
it is trying to drag the peace process for as long as possible,’ says
Guluzade.

On the other hand, `the US wants the Nagorno Karabakh conflict to be
resolved as quickly as possible. The Americans want to give part of
the Azerbaijani territories to Armenia and hope that Russia may agree
to this. They do not realize that the Russians will not accept this
either. If you remember, once Azerbaijan has already agreed to
compromise peace but that was followed by a terrorist act in Armenia.
Russia is still a strong player and can resist any peace agreement.’
Guluzade suggests waiting for 10 years more – `in 10 years Russia
will get weaker, NATO will grow stronger in the whole Caucasus and
only then will Azerbaijan be able to attain relatively favorable
peace. The other scenario is that Russia may grow stronger and `get
back’ Azerbaijan and the other CIS countries. But I think that the
first scenario is more realistic,’ says Guluzade.

He notes that `it is impossible to conduct a referendum on Nagorno
Karabakh’s status.’ This will require the return of all refugees to
Nagorno Karabakh and refugees will agree to return only after the
conclusion of a peace agreement and given the protection of the
Azerbaijani army. In this situation to agree to the referendum means
to give Karabakh to the Armenians. If so, why to negotiate at all?
Let them sign a statement and say: `we are making a generous gift to
the Armenians.’

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