MEDIATORS WILL NOT TOLERATE ANOTHER ‘RAMBOUILLET’
By Ara Martirosian
AZG Armenian Daily
31/05/2006
Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents May Be Forced to Agree in Bucharest
Touching on the Nagorno Karabakh issues in February daily Azg ruled
out that the conflicting sides can come to terms at the Rambouillet
meeting. The reason we mentioned was that Azerbaijan’s public opinion
is not ready for any compromise settlement. Once such a document was
signed, the country’s leader would have problems back home. What
is the situation prior to the Bucharest meeting and how probable
it is that the meeting will yield if not an agreement than at least
a breakthrough?
Contrary to the Rambouillet meeting, the get-together in Bucharest
preceded by international pressure on the sides to come to terms. Thus
we can conclude that this time the co-chairs are instructed by the
states they represent to bring the stances of the sides closer.
For that reason during the last visit of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs
to the region they were accompanied by the heads of foreign affairs
departments of their state. They visited only Azerbaijan and Armenia
but Not Nagorno Karabakh. It also speaks well for the fact that the
European delegation had a specific message to the heads of Armenia
and Azerbaijan and was not another “acquaintance with positions of
the sides”. It’s not accidental that after the European delegation’s
visit the sides announced about the Bucharest meeting.
This means that the mediating states hope to achieve an agreement and
are not going to tolerate another Rambouillet. It seems the slightly
edited settlement option of Rambouillet will be imposed upon Armenia
and Azerbaijan. But will the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan give
in to the mediators’ pressure? Will an agreement be signed? This is
going to be the toughest trial for both Robert Kocharian and Ilham
Aliyev. Yet, one thing is clear: refusal to sign an agreement can
have bad consequences for the two leaders. What agreement do the
mediators put forward?
Judging from the statements of Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
and foreign ministers as well as mass media reports, the principles of
conflict resolution are roughly as follows: Armenia withdraws from 5
of 7 occupied territories neighboring Karabakh, Azerbaijan recognizes
the right for self-determination of the people of Karabakh and agrees
to hold a referendum there. Before the referendum Nagorno Karabakh
gets an interim status. According to the Western media, the issue of
Kelbajar region is still disputable.
Agreeing to these principles can cause serious inner political problems
for Kocharian and particularly Aliyev. Some of the principles are
extremely unbeneficial for Armenia and some for Azerbaijan. But the
Azeri president is in even tougher situation as the Azerbaijani society
does not even want to hear of Nagorno Karabakh’s self-determination.
However, we cannot rule out the possibility of a signed agreement in
Bucharest due to the international pressure.