AZERBAIJAN OPPOSITION RETHINKS ALIYEV’S US VISIT
By Fariz Ismailzade for The Jamestown Foundation
ISN, Switzerland
May 10 2006
After President Ilham Aliyev’s trip to the US, opposition leaders in
Azerbaijan who were initially against the trip are now re-evaluating
their position.
Opposition parties in Azerbaijan were not happy with President Ilham
Aliyev’s invitation to visit the United States and were even hostile
about the warm welcome he received from the White House. Referring
to the contested presidential election in 2003, opposition parties
criticized US President George W. Bush for betraying his “freedom
agenda” and cooperating with a foreign authoritarian leader. Some
politicians even described Aliyev’s invitation from Washington as the
final humiliation for the domestic opposition. They predicted that
the visit would turn the opposition away from Western liberal values.
Surprisingly, the domestic opposition’s initially chilly reaction
toward the president’s visit has begun to thaw and refocus. Some
senior opposition activists are trying to sugarcoat the “damage” done
to the Azerbaijani opposition’s attitude toward the US government and
downplay the initial criticism of the Bush administration. Speaking
to the opposition daily Yeni Musavat on 3 May, Hikmet Hajizadeh,
a member of the Supreme Council of the leading opposition party
Musavat, observed, “America is busy now with the third World War
[i.e. the War on Terrorism] and just like the Second World War
brought freedom to many nations, this one can also bring freedom to
many peoples. We often seek a quick resolution of our problems, but
it is not possible. The US is now trying to fight for democracy and
economic freedoms globally. No one except the US is doing this and
wants to do this. Thus, we should help the US in this”. Hajizadeh
also heads Far Center, one of Azerbaijan’s preeminent think tanks.
Another prominent opposition activist similarly commented that the
ongoing crisis around Iran was the real motivation for inviting
President Aliyev to Washington. Fuad Mustafayev, deputy chairman of
the opposition Popular Front, commented, “That is why I believe that
[the opposition’s] relations with the US will remain the same as
before despite this invitation. The Popular Front party has never
expected anybody from abroad to come and build democracy for us here.
It is our own duty” (Yeni Musavat, 3 May).
Meanwhile, other experts clearly focused on the benefits of the
visit. According to independent political analyst Rasim Musabeyov,
“for a [country the] size of Azerbaijan, such a visit and talks with
the sole superpower in the world have extraordinary implications. It
shows the growing geopolitical role of Azerbaijan in the region”
(Echo, 2 May).
Another expert suggested that the visit had actually strengthened
Aliyev’s position as head of state. Echoing the opinion of some
Western analysts, Zardush Alizadeh speculated that President Aliyev
might change his mind regarding Iran should the time come for Baku
to take a stance.
Aliyev’s visit to the White House brought new dimensions to
US-Azerbaijani relations. Henceforth, bilateral ties will no longer
be evaluated through the prism of oil and gas alone. Now cooperation
between the two countries has shifted to address issues of geopolitical
strategy and the global fight against terrorism, both of which are
ongoing priorities for Bush and Aliyev in the region.
At the same time, opposition parties are now focusing on the
Iranian issue more and more, trying to draw Tehran into the critical
discourse regarding Aliyev’s visit. On 3 May, Yeni Musavat reported
that the United States is building a military base in the south of
Azerbaijan, which will host a radio-location station and air-defense
equipment. Such capabilities could be called into service should
Washington launch an attack on Iran.
Aliyev’s visit raised the US-Azerbaijani strategic partnership to new,
higher levels, but it still left many questions unanswered.
Pundits in Baku continue to wonder what will be Azerbaijan’s role
should the US-Iranian conflict intensify, and what will be the future
of the peace talks with Armenia over the disputed Karabakh enclave.
The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict was expected to be on the agenda
of the Bush-Aliyev meeting, yet it still is unclear exactly what they
discussed and what will be the consequences of this meeting.
Meanwhile, the co-chairs of the Minsk group gathered in Moscow
this week to discuss the ongoing peace process around the Karabakh
conflict. Azerbaijani politicians and experts believe that the results
of Rambouillet talks in February between the presidents of Armenia
and Azerbaijan are not as dead as they initially seemed. The Day.az
internet news service reported, “At this stage, the US is taking a
lead in the peace process.”
This article originally appeared in Eurasia Daily Monitor,
published by The Jamestown Foundation in Washington, DC., at
(). The Jamestown Foundation is an independent,
nonpartisan organization supported by tax-deductible contributions
from corporations, foundations, and individuals.