TURKEY PROMOTES STABILITY IN THE CAUCASUS
Mevlut Katik 7/18/05
Eurasianet Organization
July 18 2005
Turkey is engaged in a major diplomatic push to promote stability in
the Caucasus. Ankara’s initiatives — involving Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Russia — could play an important role in breaking the long-standing
stalemate in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks.
Hopes have risen in recent weeks that a breakthrough in the Karabakh
peace process may be at hand. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. The Karabakh question was among the topics discussed by
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President
Vladimir Putin during a July 18 meeting at the Russian Black Sea resort
of Sochi. “I was satisfied to hear the Russian position that it was
time to start settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,” the RIA Novosti
news agency quoted Erdogan as saying at a post-meeting news conference.
Turkey has been a staunch supporter of Azerbaijan on the Karabakh
issue, and maintains an economic blockade against Armenia in order to
keep pressure on Yerevan to strike a deal with Baku. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In recent months, however, Ankara
and Yerevan have probed for ways to end the Turkish embargo and to
normalize relations. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
As recently as early June, the prospects for normalization appeared
dim. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. But the two
sides have not given up. On July 12, the Turkish television channel
CNNTurk revealed that Turkish and Armenian diplomats had engaged in
secret talks in an undisclosed European city, during which Ankara
reportedly extended proposals aimed at easing mutual animosity.
Turkish and Armenian officials have confirmed that a dialogue is
ongoing, but have remained tight-lipped about specifics. Turkish
media sources have said another round of discussions could occur soon,
with Armenia responding to the Turkish proposals.
The major stumbling block on normalization concerns the killings of up
to 1.5 million Armenians amid the collapse of the Ottoman Empire during
the early 20th century. Armenia is seeking international recognition
of the 1915-23 tragedy as genocide. Turkish leaders insist the mass
deaths of Armenians did not constitute genocide. Ankara instead
characterizes the Armenian casualties as tragic victims of a partisan
struggle that raged within the context of the First World War.
During an exchange of letters between Turkish and Armenian leaders
in April, Erdogan proposed the establishment of a joint commission to
examine the issue with the aim of reaching a consensus interpretation
of history. Armenian President Robert Kocharian rejected the proposal,
countering that the two countries should form an inter-governmental
body that grapples with all questions of bilateral interest.
Ankara has a considerable interest in normalizing its relations with
Armenia, as Turkey’s dwindling chances of gaining entry into the
European Union over the near- to mid-term depend partly on whether
Turkish and Armenian officials can settle their differences. During
a mid-June visit to Turkey, Joost Lagendijk, the co-chair of the
Turkish-EU Joint Parliamentary Commission, indicated that Turkey’s
chances to overcome growing EU skepticism about Ankara’s accession
aspirations could depend on its ability to normalize relations with
its neighbors. “Turkey must strengthen its relations with Armenia,”
the Anatolia news agency quoted Lagendijk as saying.
Turkish leaders have sought to reassure Azerbaijani officials that the
special relationship between Ankara and Baku will not be weakened by a
potential rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. Turkey’s ambassador
in Baku, Turan Morali, stressed in a television interview broadcast
July 14 on Azerbaijan’s ANS television that there were “no grounds”
for concern about the strength of the Ankara-Baku relationship. Morali
went on to tout the potential benefits of a Karabakh peace settlement.
“There will be a new environment for joint work in the region if the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is solved,” Morali said. “One should
lay and reinforce the foundation [for a durable peace].
Beyond the desire for a Karabakh settlement in the near term, Turkish
leaders appear concerned about Azerbaijan’s domestic political
situation. Azerbaijan is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections
in November and some political analysts have raised the possibility
of election-related unrest in Baku, noting that rigged elections
in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan led to revolutionary upheaval
in those countries. Ferai Tinc, writing in the daily Hurriyet on
June 27, said; “It seems that Azerbaijan will be the next stop for
velvet revolutions. They [opposition leaders] have already put orange
handkerchiefs in their pockets.”
Azerbaijani opposition parties have stepped up the pressure on
President Ilham Aliyev’s government in recent months, staging public
rallies in favor of fair elections. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. Prior to Erdogan’s arrival in Baku, Azerbaijani
opposition leaders issued an “Istanbul Declaration,” containing a
variety of demands aimed at ensuring electoral honesty in November.
Opposition leaders no only sought to ensure equitable representation
on election commissions, they also called for guarantees of freedom
of assembly before and after the election.
Aliyev and other leading members of the government have promised
that the elections will be free-and-fair. At the same time, the
Azerbaijani president said on the eve of Erdogan’s arrival that
“there would never be a velvet revolution in Azerbaijan.”
During his visit, Erdogan appeared to promote the idea of political
dialogue between Aliyev’s administration and the opposition.
“Throughout history only those regimes that made their people relate
to their government with love and trust, not fear, could succeed,”
Erdogan said during a June 30 address to the Azerbaijani parliament.
“In a globalized world, one-sidedness and arbitrary rule are clearly
not a solution. We will either be part of a free world, adopting
democratic values, or take our place in a darkness that resists change
and refuses democracy and human rights. We [Turkey] have chosen the
former, and also invite all our friends to walk down this path.”
In encouraging democratization in Azerbaijan, Turkey must tread
carefully, given that any political dispute could have a severe impact
on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. So far, Erdogan’s advocacy of democratization in
Azerbaijan does not seem to have rankled Aliyev’s administration.
Editor’s Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst.
He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist
group.