EurasiaNet Organization
July 6 2005
THE GEOPOLITICAL BALANCE IN CENTRAL ASIA TILTS TOWARD RUSSIA
Sergei Blagov 7/06/05
Turbulent events in Central Asia this year – including Kyrgyzstan’s
revolution and the bloody suppression of protest in Uzbekistan – are
helping to fuel a shift in the region’s geopolitical balance. Russia
appears to be the primary beneficiary of the realignment, while the
United States now finds itself increasingly out of favor in the
region.
Moscow has worked through regional multilateral organizations to
enhance its strategic position in Central Asia. On July 5, one such
group, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, issued a request for
the United States to set a deadline for the withdrawal of American
military personnel from the region. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. US officials, citing bilateral agreements with
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, rejected the SCO’s request. [For
additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Nevertheless, the request seemed to confirm that Washington is on the
diplomatic defensive, as both Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are SCO
participants. The other SCO members are China, Kazakhstan and
Tajikistan.
Immediately after the September 11 terrorist tragedy, Central Asian
leaders embraced strategic cooperation with the United States as a
means to contain the growth of Islamic militancy in the region.
Almost four years later, however, Islamic radicalism continues to
pose a security threat, prompting enthusiasm among regional leaders
for a strong US strategic presence in Central Asia to wane. [For
additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition,
many Central Asian officials believe that the Bush administration’s
aggressive democratization policies have helped foment political
upheaval in the former Soviet Union, leading to regime change in
Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. Incumbents throughout Central Asia are now intent
on preventing the revolutionary turmoil that engulfed Kyrgyzstan from
spreading.
The SCO request offers the clearest sign to date that US prestige in
Central Asia is eroding. It is additionally provides proof that
Russia and China are teaming up to undermine the United States’
strategic position.
In addition to the SCO, Russia is working through two other regional
organizations — the Eurasian Economic Commonwealth (EEC) and the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – to reassert Moscow’s
influence in Central Asia. The EEC, linking Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Belarus, focuses on multi-lateral economic
integration, while the CSTO, including the same members plus Armenia,
aims to tackle regional security concerns.
The groups are dominated by Russia. Both are headed by retired
Russian generals — with Grogory Rapota leading the EEC and Nikolai
Bordyuzha serving as secretary-general of the CSTO. The two
organizations have so far functioned mostly on paper only. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. However, some observers
believe growing security concerns are encouraging greater regional
cooperation. At an EEC summit on June 22, for example, political
leaders expressed new-found optimism about the establishment of a
regional free-trade zone and customs alliance.
During the EEC summit, Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev
noted that trade among bloc members in 2004 totaled $28 billion, up
roughly 40 percent over the previous year. Russia has devoted
particular attention to strengthening economic ties with Kazakhstan,
which possesses Central Asia’s most robust economy. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russia and Kazakhstan agreed to
create a regional investment bank with initial capital of $1.5
billion, the bulk of it to be supplied by Russia. The bank, expected
to be operational by December 2005, is to be headquartered in Almaty,
Kazakhstan. “This is not a closed bank, it will be open to
shareholders from other CIS countries,” Russian President Vladimir
Putin said.
In conjunction with the EEC summit, Moscow played host to a June
22-23 gathering of CSTO states. Participants signed agreements
providing for the deployment of a unified air defense system and the
establishment of rapid reaction forces in Central Asia. These forces
could be used in peacekeeping operations, Putin told journalists.
The CSTO summit resolved to create an inter-state commission on
military-economic cooperation, aiming to promote closer ties among
member states’ defense industries. Russia, the leading power in the
region, agreed to train military personnel for member states and sell
military equipment to them at a discount. Russian officials also
expressed a desire to expand the CSTO’s membership. “We plan to
invite other countries to participate in CSTO activities as
observers, and also foresee the admission of new members in the
future,” the RIA-Novosti news agency quoted an unidentified Kremlin
source as saying.
Putin used the CSTO summit to criticize the US-led anti-terrorist
coalition in Afghanistan, characterizing it as “very ineffective.”
The Russian president pointed out that Taliban insurgents remain
active in Afghanistan and the country has again developed into a
drug-trafficking hub.
CSTO members also declined to support demands by the United States
and other Western countries for an independent investigation into the
Uzbek government’s handling of the Andijan events in May. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. “Uzbekistan is not a
CSTO member, and we do not interfere in the internal affairs of other
countries,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.
Editor’s Note: Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS
political affairs.