PRESS RELEASE
Armenian Center for National and International Studies
75 Yerznkian Street
Yerevan 375033, Armenia
Tel: (+374 – 10) 52.87.80 or 27.48.18
Fax: (+374 – 10) 52.48.46
E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected]
Website:
July 1, 2005
ACNIS Releases Public Perceptions on Armenia’s Regional Role
Yerevan–The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS)
today convened a policy roundtable on “The South Caucasus: Common or
Separate Destinies?” to issue the results of both a public survey and a
specialized questionnaire on “Armenia’s Place and Role in the Region”
conducted among 40 experts and 1500 citizens from Yerevan and all of Armenia
‘s regions. The meeting brought together policy analysts, experts, public
figures, academic circles, media and NGO representatives to discuss public
perceptions and expert views regarding the Caucasus, the spheres in which
Armenia might play a leading role among neighboring countries, and on the
whole the nation’s strengths and weaknesses, influences, and preferable
systems of security.
ACNIS director of administration Karapet Kalenchian greeted the invited
guests and public participants with opening remarks. “The strategically
miscalculated, situational foreign policy that the administration pursues is
directly related with Armenia’s shortcomings in the domestic political,
socio-economic, and spiritual-cultural spheres. The country cannot be strong
and defend its own interests in the region as long as the gap between the
authorities and the people keeps growing.”
ACNIS analyst Syuzanna Barseghian focused in detail on the findings of the
opinion polls. Accordingly, 95.7% of the surveyed citizens and 97.5% of
experts hold that Armenia has issues of dispute with Azerbaijan, 94.4% and
97.5% respectively with Turkey, 62.2% and 67.5% with Georgia, even 19.9% and
15% with Iran and 18% and 47.5% with Russia. It is noteworthy that
approximately half of the specialists mention a problematic relationship
with Russia.
Of the three South Caucasus countries listed, which one enjoys the most
solid position in relative terms? 34.8% of polled citizens assert that
Armenia has the soundest position in domestic policy or democracy, 22.3%
note Georgia and 5.9%–Azerbaijan, whereas most experts maintain quite an
opposite view in this respect. 70% of them believe that Georgia is the
democratic leader of the region, whereas Armenia comes in ten times behind
the cradle of the “rose revolution” and Azerbaijan marks zero. 37% of
respondent citizens and 22.5% of experts find it difficult to answer.
In evaluating the strongest position in foreign policy, there is
considerable divergence in the viewpoints of the two groups. Only 31.2% of
citizens and 5% of experts offer a response in Armenia’s favor. An
overwhelming majority of experts, 77.5%, duly assess Georgia’s external
policy. In the case of Azerbaijan, the indices are 21.8% and 12.5%,
respectively. It is only in the economic domain that 29.8% of citizens and
60% of experts consider Azerbaijan to have the most advantageous position.
70.7% and 80% of the respective groups find that Armenia has earned the
leading place in defense matters. Both groups of respondents share the same
opinion regarding the arenas of education and science. 64.5% and 35%,
respectively, consider that sphere to be a priority issue for Armenia, 1.2%
and 5% for Azerbaijan, and 2.6% and 10% for Georgia. Both groups attach high
importance to culture in Armenia, though 33.4% of citizens and 40% of
experts find this area difficult to gauge.
The fourth item on the poll’s agenda was the leading role Armenia can play
in the region. 14.4 % and 12.5% of the responding groups believe that
Armenia has a greater role in comparison with Azerbaijan and Georgia in
terms of democracy, 22.6% and 40% in advanced technologies, 6.5% and 10% in
industry, 11.9% and 5% in agriculture, 25.2% and 5% in tourism, 4.7% and 10%
in the financial sector, and 9.9% and 12.5% in regional communications and
transportation.
Notwithstanding Armenia’s possible success in the aforementioned fields,
there still are factors by which other countries influence Armenia. Thus,
57% of each respondent category assert that the main such factor is the
Karabagh conflict, 13.3% and 11.8% point to the Russian military bases in
Armenia, while 20.5% and 21.9% note Armenia’s external debt, 26.9% and
24.9% its illegitimate authorities, 18.3% and 19.2% the violation of
democratic values, and 10.8% and 12% the Armenian nuclear power plant. The
public and expert dispositions are strikingly similar in this connection.
Amid the three countries of the South Caucasus, Russia has the most
influence upon Armenia, according to 58.9% and 85% of the responding groups,
with the United States garnering 11.3% and 12.5% and the European Union
17.4% and 0%. In Azerbaijan, Russian influence musters 12.7% and 10%,
American influence 40.9% and 57.5%, and European influence 15% and 5%.
Georgia provides a different picture. There the most influential power is
considered the United States by a vast majority of both citizens and
experts–67.3% and 95% respectively. In the opinion of 6.3% and 0% the most
influential is Russia, and 5.8% and 5% consider the EU.
On the cause-effect example of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the
poll participants deem variously that Armenia’s isolation would further
deepen (48.2% and 65%), the region’s stability and development would be
secured (9.6% and 10%), Azerbaijan would solve the Karabagh problem in its
favor (9.1% and 0%), and resumption of an Armenian-Azerbaijani war would be
ruled out (4.9% and 17.5%). If Armenia’s isolation really does deepen, then
the question of consolidating the country’s security system would
imperatively be begged. Is NATO the answer? In face of this choice, the
views of ordinary citizens and the expert pool differ somewhat. While 34.7%
of public respondents favor and 33.9% oppose Armenia’s membership in NATO,
the majority of experts (52.5%) supports such a move with 30% in
disagreement.
The next item on the day’s agenda was a policy intervention, entitled “The
Region within Old and New Geopolitical Strategies: A View from Armenia,” by
ACNIS research coordinator Stepan Safarian. Sharing his outlook for the
region in terms of possible political, economic, and demographic
developments, Safarian concluded: “No matter how unique or different or
competitive the histories of the people of the South Caucasus are, it is all
the same; in all the Euroatlantic strategies being carried out in the region
today, it is considered as one entity.”
This comment was followed by contributions by Liberal Progressive Party
official Edward Antinian, MP Alexan Karapetian, ACNIS analyst Alvard
Barkhoudarian, former minister of state Vahan Shirkhanian, Slavonic
University professor Rozalina Gabrielian, Heritage Party board member Hrach
Hakobian, International Center for Human Development executive director
Tevan Poghosian, Noyan Tapan News Agency analyst Davit Petrosian, Noravank
Foundation director Gagik Ter-Haroutiunian, and several others.
11.3% of the respondent citizens participating in the ACNIS poll are between
the ages of 16-20, 23.1% 21-30, 22.7% 31-40, 24.3% 41-50, 10.3% 51-60, 5.3%
61-70, and 2.3% are above 71 years of age. 46% of the respondents are male
and 54% female. 42.1% of them have higher education, 12.9% incomplete
higher, 20.4% specialized secondary, 21.5% secondary, and 3.1% have
incomplete secondary training. 57.2% are actively employed and 21.8% are
unemployed. 8.2% are pensioners and welfare recipients, while 12.2 % are
students. Urban residents constitute 61.6% of the citizens surveyed, while
rural residents make up 38.4%. 30.1% of all respondents hail from Yerevan
and the rest are from outside the capital city.
The primary occupation of 24.4% of those professionals who took part in the
specialized poll is journalism, with 12.3% each for history and law, 9.8%
each for political science, philology and physics, 4.8% each for economics
and international relations, and 2.4% each for construction engineering,
geography, and mathematics. 72.5% of the experts are male and 27.5% female.
17.2% are 20-30 years of age, 24.4% 31-40, 36.5% 41-50, 19.5% 51-60, while
2.4% are 61-70 years of age. 97.5% have received a higher education; 5.7% of
them are Doctors of Science (PhD), 14.3% hold a Candidate’s degree, 77.1% a
Master’s degree, and 2.9% only a Bachelor’s degree. All of them are from
Yerevan.
Founded in 1994 by Armenia’s first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi K.
Hovannisian and supported by a global network of contributors, ACNIS serves
as a link between innovative scholarship and the public policy challenges
facing Armenia and the Armenian people in the post-Soviet world. It also
aspires to be a catalyst for creative, strategic thinking and a wider
understanding of the new global environment. In 2005, the Center focuses
primarily on civic education, conflict resolution, and applied research on
critical domestic and foreign policy issues for the state and the nation.
For further information on the Center or full graphics of the poll results,
call (37410) 52-87-80 or 27-48-18; fax (37410) 52-48-46; e-mail
[email protected] or [email protected]; or visit or
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress