The thorns in Georgia’s rose
Simon Tisdall
Tuesday May 10, 2005
The Guardian
President George Bush will publicly congratulate the people of Georgia
on their peaceful “rose revolution” in November 2003 when he addresses
a crowdof up to 100,000 in Freedom Square, Tbilisi, today. But his
private message to President Mikhail Saakashvili is likely to be more
nuanced. He will remind the Georgian leader that democracy means more
than elections, and further reforms are essential if the former Soviet
republic is to fulfil its EU and Nato membership ambitions.
Stephen Hadley, the US national security adviser, highlighted
Washington’s concerns about simmering disputes in the separatist
regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia prior to Mr Bush’s
arrival. Georgia’s attitude to its Russophile, Azeri and Armenian
minorities and the rule of law were also seen as key tests of future
progress, he suggested. The US is anxious that an argument with Russia
over the timetable for closing two Soviet-era military bases in
Georgia should not rekindle broader tensions with the Kremlin. Despite
ongoing talks, Mr Saakashvili cited the problem as his reason for
boycotting yesterday’s VE Day celebrations in Moscow.
Mr Bush has been quick to respond to a recent statement by the Russian
president, Vladimir Putin, that the collapse of the Soviet Union was
“the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”.
He said at the weekend that post-1945 Soviet domination in eastern
Europe and central Asia was “one of the greatest wrongs of
history”. He warned Mr Putin to eschew further interference in
neighbouring countries while reserving that right for the US. His next
target is Belarus.
But the US needs Mr Putin’s cooperation on issues ranging from Iran to
oil. It shares Moscow’s concern about the use of Georgian territory
by Islamist extremists attempting to destabilise Chechnya and the
northern Caucasus. The US recently instituted a $50m (£27m) military
training programme in Georgia but has renounced any intention of
replacing the Russian bases with Nato installations.
In other words, Washington will support Mr Saakashvili with words,
advice and financial assistance – as long as he does not upset more
important apple carts.
“There is still some optimism about the rose revolution but it is
tempered by greater realism,” said Professor Charles King, an expert
on US-Georgia relations at Georgetown University in
Washington. “Democratic assistance isall very well – but you have to
have a functioning country first.”
Continually blaming “the nefarious designs of the Russian Federation”
for Georgia’s ills was counterproductive, Prof King said. “In time
even Georgia’s friends may come to wonder whether a country with
fictitious borders and noplan for making them real is a country worth
helping.” This increased sense of caution, teetering on
disillusionment, is reflected in opinion polls indicating a 25% fall
in Mr Saakashvili’s approval ratings.
Street protests over electricity and water shortages, controversial
anti-corruption measures, and mutterings about Mr Saakashvili’s
“arrogance”have prompted speculation that Georgia’s rose is beginning
to wilt.
“This is the very same wave of social discontent that propelled the
rose revolution and brought down [former president] Eduard
Shevardnadze,” said Jaba Devdariani, writing in Transitions On
Line. “The government should worry lest the unrest turn into an
explosion.” This was unlikely at present, Mr Devdariani
admitted. Georgia’s leader retained 38% support in the face of a
fragmented political opposition.
Prof King said Mr Saakashvili had made progress in some areas, notably
in Adjaria and in improved tax collection.
But if Mr Saakashvili did not put his weight fully behind systemic
reforms, popular counter-revolution was not entirely out of the
question, Prof King said. “Saakashvili needs to listen to what is
called ‘the shout from the streets’ or he could go the way of
Shevardnadze. After all, he created the template.”