Washington Times/United Press Int’l
March 2 2005
Analysis: All change in Belarus, Moldova?
By Gareth Harding
Chief European Correspondent
Brussels, Belgium, Mar. 2 (UPI) — After the rose revolution in
Georgia and the orange revolution in Ukraine, could the former Soviet
republics of Moldova and Belarus be the next states to swap
authoritarian rule for democracy?
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European and American leaders are increasingly optimistic that the
non-violent uprisings in Tbilisi and Kiev will create a snowball
effect similar to that which rumbled through the former communist
countries of central and eastern Europe in 1989.
“The democratic revolutions that swept this region over 15 years ago
are now reaching Georgia and Ukraine,” U.S. President George W. Bush
told Slovaks in central Bratislava last week. “In 10 days, Moldova
has the opportunity to place its democratic credentials beyond doubt
as its people head to the polls. And inevitably, the people of
Belarus will someday proudly belong to the country of democracies.”
Viktor Yushchenko, the newly elected Ukrainian president who
spearheaded protests against rigged elections in November, also
believes freedom is on the march in eastern Europe. “The orange
revolution set a very good example for many citizens because it
showed them the way to protect their rights,” he told United Press
International last month. “This example is relevant to any country
where rights are not respected.”
The political map of Europe has been redrawn since the Berlin Wall
came crashing down in November 1989, spreading democracy eastwards
like an ink-blot. Eight former communist states — the Czech
Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Slovenia and
Slovakia — became members of the EU and NATO last year, and Bulgaria
and Rumania are on course to join the union in 2007. Democracy has
also begun to take root in Albania and the war-torn states of the
former Yugoslavia, with Croatia and Macedonia likely to join the EU
in the next three to five years.
But it was the revolutions in Georgia — where Eduard Shevardnadze
was ousted from power in 2003 — and Ukraine, where massive street
protests forced a re-run of fraudulent elections in November, that
have provided the greatest inspiration to activists in the former
Soviet bloc.
“No one can say now that democracy is not possible near Russia or
that post-Soviet countries can’t become properly functioning
democracies,” says Pavol Demes, who has advised opposition groups in
Ukraine and Serbia and now heads the German Marshall Fund’s
Bratislava office. “There are now five concrete examples of Soviet
republics freeing themselves from communism and then authoritarianism
(Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Georgia and Ukraine) that the people of
Belarus and Moldova can dream about, learn lessons from and act on.”
Voters in Moldova, a desperately poor country of 4.2 million people
nestled between Romania and Ukraine, get their chance to choose
between Western-style liberal democracy and Russian-style
authoritarianism Sunday. Communist President Vladimir Voronin, who
has ruled the country since 2001 and traditionally been close to the
Kremlin, now favors tighter links with Europe. But his conversion to
the EU cause may have come too late for impatient voters fed up with
endemic corruption and the continent’s lowest living standards.
“There is a communist dictatorship in our country and, consequently,
there are conditions for a revolution,” said Yuri Rosca, leader of
the Christian Democratic People’s Party. Emulating Yushchenko’s
tactics in Ukraine, the opposition has swathed itself in orange and
booked the central square of the capital, Chisinau, for a fortnight
in anticipation of street protests.
The situation in Belarus, Europe’s last dictatorship, is less
promising for freedom fighters. A former Soviet republic of 10
million people that shares borders with three EU states, Belarus has
been ruled with an iron fist by Communist President Alexander
Lukashenko since 1994. Blatant vote-rigging in November elections —
opposition parties failed to win a single seat in parliament — was
slammed by international observers and earned Belarus the dubious
honor of being the only European country included on U.S. Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice’s “outposts of tyranny” list in January.
But many campaigners and analysts are confident that change will come
to the communist state sooner rather than later. “If it can happen in
Georgia and Ukraine, then it can happen in Belarus,” says Irina
Krasovskaya, president of We Remember Foundation. Oxford professor
and east European expert Timothy Garton Ash told UPI: “It would be
very foolish of us to imagine that change won’t come in countries
like Moldova, Belarus and perhaps Armenia in the next three to five
years.”
Others, however, are less optimistic. Belarus has high growth rates,
low unemployment, a strong welfare state and little social unrest.
Despite Western criticism, Lukashenko has higher approval ratings
than many democratically elected leaders — even independent
observers credited him with almost half the vote in last year’s
elections.
“The circumstances in Belarus and Moldova are very different from the
other countries that have become democracies,” says Demes. “Europe
and America are only now discovering these two states.”
The EU has imposed mild sanctions on Belarus but has done little to
actively support regime change in the country. The U.S.
administration, on the other hand, adopted the Belarus Democracy Act
last year, which not only slaps sanctions on the communist
government, but also supports non-governmental organizations fighting
for freedom, democracy and an independent media.
“We stand by the people trying to bring forward democratic reform,
but you cannot impose it from the outside,” said one senior U.S.
official. “What we can do is help with media reform and work with
political parties, so that instead of dictators in power you show
people how to build up parties with a grass-roots base.”
Last week, Bush made true on his inauguration speech pledge to
support those struggling against tyranny when he met with 21
“champions of freedom” from central and eastern Europe in Bratislava.
“He told us he deeply cares about our cause and will do his best to
help in the coming years,” said Demes, one of the 21 freedom fighters
chosen to meet the president. “All of us came away from the meeting
feeling very encouraged.”