Armenia To Be Hardly Pushed To Revolution In Near Future: Rus. Pol.


YEREVAN, JANUARY 26. ARMINFO. Armenia will hardly be pushed to a
revolution in the coming years: the snowdrops are not ripe yet, says
Russian politologist Andrey Milovzorov on in his article
“Russia’s Partners are Pregnant with Revolutions of All Colors.”

Georgian and Ukraine have shown that the key prerequisite for a
revolution is mass popular displeasure with the ruling regime and life
under this regime (typical of all the CIS countries); growing
pro-Russian moods even in a pro-West government; the West’s fuel
interests (oil, gas, pipelines) in a given country in opposition to
similar potential interests from Russia. There are many candidates for
revolution: Belarus, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, shattered Moldova,
totalitarian Turkmenistan.

Armenia is also a worthy candidate. That country is facing a serious
social-economic crisis, its people is displeased with its regime,
Russian influence is too big and would better be reduced. Recent
surveys have shown that Armenians are becoming increasingly inclined
towards Europe and are tending to support any opposition to the
regime. Many experts say that Armenia is the next victim to revolution
– snowdrop revolution. But there are serious obstacles too: the
opposition is motley and lacks the political drive, the power hunger
of Saakashvili and Yuschenko. It is all but consolidated, has no
director and no financing. There could be revolution in Armenia after
the elections 2003 but it did not happen. Washington must have
considered the Armenian opposition not sufficiently anti-Russian – a
prerequisite for real support. Besides Russia has troops in Armenia.

As for neighboring Azerbaijan it is hardly a candidate for
revolution. Until recently it has been a loyal outpost of the US in
the Caspian region. Now under Aliev Junior Baku has become
ambiguous. It is still bad with Moscow (because of Armenia) but
instead it has made friends with Iran, the country the US hates very
much. This is serious but not enough for a coup. Besides there is no
mass displeasure with Ilham Aliev in Azerbaijan; nor are there any
threats to the US’ oil interests. No, in Azerbaijan the western
scenario makers will rather work with the incumbent regime than try to
change it, concludes Milovzorov.