Eurasianet Organization
Nov. 5, 2004
ARMENIAN DEPLOYMENT IN IRAQ HAMPERED BY DOMESTIC OPPOSITION
Emil Danielyan 11/05/04
President Robert Kocharian’s administration in Armenia appears to have
pushed back plans to dispatch a contingent of non-combat troops to
Iraq. The planned deployment has generated determined domestic
opposition, with critics of the proposal cautioning that joining the
US-led coalition could endanger the small ethnic Armenian community in
Iraq.
Yerevan made what looked like a formal commitment to join the Iraq
mission during President Robert Kocharian’s official visit to Poland in
early September. The Armenian military contingent would be largely
symbolic — comprising roughly 50 military personnel, including
doctors, de-mining experts and truck drivers – and would serve under
Polish command. Poland, a staunch US ally, leads a multinational
division stationed in south-central Iraq.
Since the initial announcement, little progress has been made toward
deployment. Government officials announced in September that military
personnel would be dispatched before the end of the year. But observers
in Yerevan now wonder whether the government can meet this deadline.
A prerequisite for deployment is an inspection visit to Iraq by an
Armenian military delegation. The visit was originally slated for late
September. However, Defense Ministry spokesman, Seyran Shahsuvarian,
said on November 3 that such a mission has yet to take place.
Shahsuvarian declined to specify a reason for the delay, and would not
speculate on when the mission would occur.
Armenia’s parliament, meanwhile, has not received a formal request from
the government to authorize the troop deployment — something that is
required under the Armenian constitution. The National Assembly
ratified earlier this year an inter-governmental agreement with Kuwait
that regulates the movements of Armenian military personnel through the
Gulf state, which serves as the main logistical base for all foreign
troops deploying to Iraq.
Helping to explain the existing uncertainty is the fact that
Kocharian’s deployment plans have faced strong domestic opposition.
Kocharian critics maintain that the presences of an Armenian military
force in Iraq could prompt Iraqi insurgents to target the country’s
Armenian community, estimated at about 25,000, for reprisals. The
insurgents have already captured and killed dozens of citizens of
countries participating in the “coalition of the willing,” or otherwise
cooperating with it.
Among those opposed to the Iraq mission is Armenia’s biggest opposition
group, the Justice alliance, along with at least two dozen
non-governmental organizations. In late September, NGO representatives
issued a joint statement, cautioning that the consequences of
participation could be severe. “We risk turning a community of 25,000
people into hostages,” one of its signatories and a prominent
environmentalist, Karine Danielian, warned. Iraqi Armenians have
themselves exhorted Yerevan not to send troops. Their spiritual leader,
Archbishop Avak Asadurian, expressed their concerns in separate letters
to President Robert Kocharian and the Armenian parliament leadership.
Significantly, two senior army generals have recently voiced opposition
to deployment plans, marking a rare instance of public questioning of
government policy by members of the Armenian army’s top brass. One of
them, Deputy Army Chief-of-Staff Enrico Apriamov, implied that the
US-led invasion of Iraq had been a mistake.
Concern for the security of the Armenian community was a major reason
for the Kocharian government’s refusal to back the Anglo-American
invasion of Iraq in early 2003. Armenia welcomed the ensuing overthrow
of Saddam Hussein and publicly expressed a desire to “participate in
Iraq’s post-war reconstruction” shortly afterward. An Armenian liaison
officer was posted at the US Central Command in Florida in late 2003 –
a move widely seen as a prelude to the troop dispatch.
The commitment to deployment among Kocharian allies appears to remain
strong – at least publicly. In recent televised remarks Defense
Minister Serge Sarkisian said that while shares the critics’ security
concerns he believes that siding with the United States on Iraq is
vital for Armenia’s national interests. Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian, for his part, argues that the Armenian participation would be
solely “humanitarian” in nature. Another Armenian leader, Parliament
Speaker Artur Baghdasarian, noted on October 29 that the United States
has provided more than $1.5 billion in economic assistance to Armenia
since independence, hinting that Yerevan should somehow express
appreciation for the American largesse.
Some pro-government media commentators say deployment should be
considered by Armenians as a geopolitical necessity. They note that
Armenia’s neighbors, Azerbaijan and Georgia, already have hundreds of
troops on the ground in Iraq. Deployment could help Armenia complement
its military alliance with Russia with closer security ties with the
United States and the West in general. A cosmetic Armenian military
presence in Iraq, they add, is important for ensuring US neutrality in
the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.
Some are skeptical that a troop contribution will produce greater
political and economic support from the United States. Alexander
Arzumanian, Armenia’s former pro-Western foreign minister and an
opponent of deployment, believes that risks far outweigh the possible
geopolitical dividends. “I just don’t see anything tangible we can get
now in return for putting at risk the lives of a large number of
Armenians,” Arzumanian told EurasiaNet.
Ultimately, it may turn out that decisions made in Poland will
influence Armenia’s final decision on deployment. Polish leaders are
pondering whether to scale down its 2,500-strong military force in
Iraq, or even withdraw it altogether by the end of 2005. Polish Defense
Minister Jerzy Szmajdzinski called for a complete troop pullout in a
newspaper interview last month. Although other officials in Warsaw,
notably President Aleksander Kwasniewski, were quick to disavow the
statement, continued Polish military presence in Iraq is now in serious
doubt.
Armenia’s Prime Minister Andranik Markarian had that in mind when he
told reporters recently, “After clarifying some questions we may go
ahead or not go ahead [with the deployment]. Everything will depend on
the situation.”
Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
political analyst.