Eurasia Insight Armenia Facing Instability Ahead – Report
Posted October 29, 2004 © Eurasianet
Armenia faces instability unless it takes quick steps to improve
relations with its neighbors, and fosters the rule-of-law at home,
according to a new study that examines the Caucasus nationâ~@~Ys
political and economic prospects. The report, prepared by
the International Crisis Group, urges Armenia to approach the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process “realistically.” It adds that President
Robert Kocharianâ~@~Ys administration should “supplement economic
success with robust democratization.”
The report, titled Armenia: Internal Instability Ahead, says
the stalemated Karabakh peace process “looms over all aspects of
Armeniaâ~@~Ys political life and compounds its instability.” [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A lasting Karabakh
settlement is needed to secure Armeniaâ~@~Ys long-term economic
security, the report maintains. Yet, Armenian leaders have little room
for diplomatic maneuver in their negotiations with their Azerbaijani
counterparts, it adds. Yerevan is under heavy popular pressure,
especially from the Armenian Diaspora, to make no concessions on
Karabakhâ~@~Ys independence from Baku. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].
“The [Karabakh] issue previously helped unify Armeniaâ~@~Ys political
elite, but ultimately, it may polarize popular opinion and society,”
the report says. While nearly all Armenians believe that the country
should defend Karabakhâ~@~Ys interests during peace negotiations, a
growing number in Yerevan seem to feel the territoryâ~@~Ys priorities
have already eclipsed Armeniaâ~@~Ys own needs, including regional
economic integration. The Karabakh issue, at the same time, has
become so politically sensitive that Armenian officials are afraid
of disturbing the status quo. The report cites a poll conducted in
August 2004, which shows that almost 50 percent of Armenians believe
war with Azerbaijan is the countryâ~@~Ys most serious threat in
the coming five years. “Today, the issue is perceived as dangerous,
if not suicidal for Armenian politicians,” the report said.
The Karabakh dilemma threatens to upend Armeniaâ~@~Ys economic
development, which is the key to long-term security. Over the past
decade, the country has experienced “substantial macroeconomic
growth,” with GDP now rising at a 10-percent annual rate, the report
says. Growth has been unevenly distributed, however, with per capita
income still standing at only $80 per month. The lack of a Karabakh
settlement may bring economic progress to a halt, the report stresses.
“The Southern Caucasus badly needs economic integration to sustain
its nascent growth,” the report states. “Yerevan is excluded from
participation in all major regional trade and East-West pipeline
projects, mostly as a consequence of the unresolved conflict.”
The report indicates that achieving a Karabakh breakthrough
will require a reevaluation of Yerevanâ~@~Ys current negotiating
stance. “Despite rhetoric, Armenians acknowledge they share many
experiences and interests with other Caucasian nations,” the report
says. “They know the future can improve only if old relations with
Azerbaijan â~@~S which means addressing the Nagorno-Karabakh issue
realistically â~@~S and Georgia are renewed,” the report says.
Complicating efforts to promote economic growth is the “frozen” state
of domestic politics, in which Kocharianâ~@~Ys opponents maintain a
boycott of parliament. [For additional information see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. The report characterizes Armenia as internally
unstable “because many basic safeguards of a participatory democracy
do not function. … Elections have been invariably rigged, causing
political unrest and violence.”
The presidential and parliamentary elections of 2003, widely condemned
for widespread irregularities, led to a sharp increase in domestic
political tension. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. Opposition leaders refused to recognize the voting results
and pursued a popular-protest strategy, leading to a confrontation
in April between pro-Kocharian police and opposition demonstrators
in Yerevan. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. Though the popular protests have abated, the political
atmosphere remains polarized.
The report places the main burden for fostering domestic tranquility
on the Kocharian administration. Incumbent authorityâ~@~Ys apparent
desire to monopolize political power is distracting from efforts
to improve living standards, it adds. “Corruption and violations
of democratic procedure have disillusioned a population, half
of which still lives below the poverty line,” the report says.
“Good governance is perhaps the most important element for fighting
poverty and achieving sustainable development.”
Events in Armenia may take a violent turn unless Kocharian takes
quick steps to redress his opponentsâ~@~Y grievances. “The number
of persons ready to act outside the law to advance political aims is
likely to grow if the government continues to repress peaceful protests
violently and to rig elections â~@~S especially should a charismatic
[opposition] leader appear on the scene.”
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