Electoral vagueness in Abkhazia
The Messenger, Georgia
Oct 11 2004
Abkhazia’s unrecognized presidential elections have taken numerous,
unexpected twists and turns in the separatist state. Raul Khadjinba,
the former Prime Minister who was seen as Putin’s favorite was defeated
in the election, leaving Sergei Baghapshi as the preliminary winner.
The election of October 3 was very important, as it should have made
it clear who would be the heir to the ailing President Ardzinba.
Khadjinba, like Russian President Putin, is from the state security
community and may have thus gained Putin’s sympathy. He was treated
to a personal meeting with Putin and a photo opportunity that became
a frequent image in his election campaign. Now analysts conclude that
his open relationship with Moscow may have cost him votes from ardent,
pro-independent voters. In any case, the Kremlin’s support has failed
to deliver an overwhelming victory.
In separatist Abkhazia, Sergei Baghapshi’s group had more supporters.
They were in control of most election districts and did not allow
anyone to falsify the election to benefit Khadjinba. The result is
an electoral stalemate; although Baghapshi won in the early count,
courts decided that their were several errors and on October 17 repeat
elections will be held in the Gali region to decide who the winner
of the de facto post really is.
Russia has already reacted to the situation and dispatched an employee
of Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situation Nodar Khashba to take
over the post of prime minister instead of Khadjinba. Khashba is
a person with speculative presidential worth in the region but was
refused participation in the vote because he did not live in Abkhazia
during the last 5 years.
Khashba arrived in Abkhazia and began “to set up order.” According
to reports, he even made an indirect statement critical of Baghapshi.
Adding to the confusion, there have also been reports that President
Ardzinba will declare a state of emergency and will install the new
prime minister as president and thus by pass the elections.
Khashba states that a draft law on a state of emergency does not
exist and that it is impossible to develop one. He faces a stern
balancing force from local paramilitaries who were awarded with title
of local heroes for expelling Georgians and now warn Khashba not to
touch their economic assets or interfere in national policy. These
‘respected people’ are also the supporters of Baghapshi and want to
ensure his final victory.
Abkhazia’s current events are observed with great interest in
Tbilisi. Some talk about the defeat of the Kremlin and hope that
Sergei Baghapshi will win. While both Khadjinba and Baghapshi are
anti-Georgian, there is still an evident difference between them.
Khadjinba is regarded as the obedient and meek promoter of the Kremlin
who will continue the policy of the joining Abkhazia to Russia. And
Sergei Baghapshi is considered as more pro-Abkhazian, who does not
want to join Abkhazia but rather to preserve ‘independence.’
It is also clear that to have hope on Baghapshi is absurd; he too is
connected with Russia and was a representative of Yeltsin’s political
cadre. Putin simply preferred Khadjinba. Furthermore, Abkhazia is
controlled by Russia oligarchs and generals who have serious material
interests in the region. Baghapshi will not be able to oppose their
interests. Russia need not worry yet since they can easily alter
course and work with Baghapshi, but they will first pull him aside
and extract certain guarantees of good behavior from the leader.
Any overt interference by the Kremlin is likely to aggravate Abkhaz
society and Moscow will seek to avoid any hostilities in the region.
The only clear indicators out of the election are that now the vote
will depend on many ethnic Armenians and Georgians who are vulnerable
to influence by threats and discrimination in the region. Another clear
indicator is that the Abkhaz state is far from a monolith and there
are still a variety of paths for the regions future. Georgian must now
sit and wait, hoping that one of the paths will lead to reconciliation.