PRESS RELEASE
Armenian Center for National and International Studies
75 Yerznkian Street
Yerevan 375033, Armenia
Tel: (+374 – 1) 52.87.80 or 27.48.18
Fax: (+374 – 1) 52.48.46
E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected]
Website:
October 8, 2004
ACNIS Opinion Polls on Armenia’s Independence
Yerevan–The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS)
today released the results of both a specialized questionnaire and a public
survey on “Armenia’s Thirteen-Year-Old Independence and Sovereignty,” which
it conducted in September among 50 experts and 1526 citizens from Yerevan
and all of Armenia’s regions.
ACNIS economic and diaspora affairs analyst Hovsep Khurshudian greeted the
invited guests and public participants with opening remarks. “Thirteen years
are probably not a long period to assess Armenia’s independence and
sovereignty, but it is important to look back to analyze, evaluate, and find
necessary mechanisms to surmount our shortcomings. Both the public and
expert surveys aim to achieve this goal,” he said.
ACNIS legal and political affairs analyst Stepan Safarian presented “The
Results of the Survey,” focusing in detail on the findings of the expert and
public opinion polls. Accordingly, a plurality of surveyed citizens and
specialists (43.8% and 34%, respectively) assert that the losses of the
independence era are more than its gains, while 8.8% and 26%, respectively,
say the gains are more than the losses. Hence, independence is valued more
among professional circles.
28.8% of citizens think that Armenia’s main achievement since its
independence is the establishment of the army and 18% the liberation of
Mountainous Karabagh. In contrast with the public survey, 46% of experts
choose liberation of Mountainous Karabagh as the key accomplishment of
Armenia, and only 16% the organization of a military. Among other
achievements of the independence years 8.9% of citizens mark strengthening
of ties with the Diaspora, 6.2% formation of people’s free thinking, 1.9%
shaping of national institutions, and 3.7% a return to national and
religious roots. In the expert opinion poll the corresponding findings are
4%, 4%, 10%, and 4%. According to 11.7% of citizens and 4% of experts,
Armenia has not registered any achievement since independence. 4.2% of
citizens and 6% of experts find this question difficult to answer.
Among the broader public, 38.4% point to poverty, emigration, unemployment
and other social evils as the main negative phenomenon since Armenia’s
independence, 10.2% check economic decline and turmoil, 14.7% formation of
clans, 9.4% decline in educational level, 3.6% deterioration of the health
care system, 6.1% isolation of the country, 10.3% human losses in Karabagh’s
fight for freedom, and 2.9% restriction of civil and political rights. In
the expert opinion poll the findings are 24%, 4%, 24%, 6%, 4%, 12%, 6%, and
12%, respectively. 45.6% of citizens and 50% of experts think that their
families’ standard of living has declined, 26.7% and 20% say it has remained
the same, and only 18.2% and 26% confirm it has improved.
The plurality of respondent citizens (33.7%) and experts (36%) opine that
all branches of national authority are equally anti-democratic. 13.9% of
citizens surveyed consider the presidency to be the most anti-democratic
institution, 9.6% the judiciary, and 9.2% the national assembly. The expert
indices read 36%, 26%, and 2%, respectively.
Most public respondents (31.2%) deem the terrorist act committed in the
Armenian parliament on October 27, 1999 as having the biggest negative
impact on the nation’s path of development, whereas the experts (42%) note
the falsification of presidential election results in 1996, 1998, and 2003.
4.8% of citizens and 14% of experts find falsification of the parliamentary
election results in 1995 and 2003 to be the most negative.
24.8% of citizens and 50% of experts mark the Armenian triumph in the
Karabagh war as carrying the biggest positive effect for the nation’s
development, 17.8% and 20% the cease-fire with Azerbaijan, 6.4% and 10%
adoption of the Armenian Constitution, 8.4% and 8% membership in the Council
of Europe, and 18.2% and 0%, respectively, the treaty of strategic
cooperation with Russia.
25.7% of citizens and an alarming 60% of experts are convinced that, if the
present system stays in place, Armenia will move toward authoritarianism;
14.6% and 20% think it will approach totalitarianism; and 17.8% and 8%,
respectively, forecast a tendency to democracy. Things are no better along
democracy’s timetable: 16.8% of citizens and 22% of experts believe that
Armenia will overcome the current obstacles and become a democratic country
in at least ten years, whereas 18.7% and 30% think it will take 25 years,
14.7% and 6% 50 years, and even 11.5% and 6% 100 years. More optimistic on
this score are the specialists, 20% of whom hope for the victory of
democracy within the next five years. Only 4.2% of citizens, on the other
hand, hold the same opinion. The most pessimistic group of experts (6%) and
citizens (20.1%) does not believe Armenia will ever become a democratic
country.
Only 13.6% of the public and 12% of experts conclude that Armenia is truly
independent and sovereign in its decisionmaking, while 70.4% and 80% do not.
Correspondingly 50.4% and 80% of them believe that the decisions made in
Armenia first and foremost depend on Russia, 8.8% and 8% on the United
States, and 14.8% and 4% on the European Union. 43% of citizens are of the
view that Armenia should maximally integrate with Russia, 10.3% with Europe,
and but 3.8% with the United States. The respective findings of the expert
opinion poll, quite distinctly, are 2%, 60%, and 8%.
The second item on the day’s agenda was a comment by former prime minister
Vazgen Manukian, chairman of the National Democratic Union, on “Independence
and Sovereignty: Reality or Ideal?” From his perspective, Armenia was
granted independence, the gravity and value of which were therefore
underestimated from the very beginning. Moreover, both the majority of
intellectuals and traditional parties were against independence, while the
government continues to pursue a policy contradicting the letter and spirit
of sovereignty. These measures do not promote the two basic blessings of
independence: perpetuation of the nation and extension of its international
influence. “Independence, the calling of which is to solve the problem of
national development, is not duly applied in our lives, and a mere change of
authority will not fix this situation,” he emphasized.
The formal presentations were followed by contributions by former minister
of state Vahan Shirkhanian; Stepan Minasian of the People’s Party of
Armenia; former parliamentarian Khoren Sargsian; Armine Gasparian of the
Institute of Culture and National Values; former state minister Hrach
Hakobian; Gagik Tadevosian of the National Unity Party; Artashes
Ghazakhetsian of the Armenia 2020 Project; Albert Baghdasarian of the
National Democratic Union; Yerevan State University professor Haik Sargsian;
former Yerevan mayor Vahagn Khachatrian; political analyst Artsrun Pepanian;
California Superior Court Judge Zaven Sinanian; American-Armenian attorney
Armen K. Hovannisian; and several others.
43.5% of the public respondents are male and 56.5% female. 13.7% are 16-20
years of age, 21.8% 21-30, 22.5% 31-40, 20.4% 41-50, 11.4% 51-60, 7% 61-70,
2.2% above 70, and 1% refused to answer. 43.5% of the citizens surveyed have
received a higher education, 12.1% incomplete higher, 18% specialized
secondary, 21.2% secondary, and 2.1% incomplete secondary training. 54.2%
are actively employed, 20.3% are unemployed, 6.9% are pensioners, 2.2%
welfare recipients, and 15.6% students. 59.7% are urban residents, and 40.3%
are from rural areas. 32.6% of them hail from Yerevan, the remainder from
the regions.
Among the experts, 72% are male and 28% female. 10% are 21-30 years of age,
32% 31-40, 34% 41-50, 18% 51-60, and 2% above 60. All of them have received
a higher education: 2% are full professors (PhD) and 30% candidates of
sciences, 66% hold a Master’s degree, and 2% have earned solely a
Bachelor’s degree. 20% are journalists by profession, 14% physicists or
radio-physicists, 10% political scientists, 8% economists, 8%
mathematicians, 8% managers, and 6% historians.
Founded in 1994 by Armenia’s first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi K.
Hovannisian and supported by a global network of contributors, ACNIS serves
as a link between innovative scholarship and the public policy challenges
facing Armenia and the Armenian people in the post-Soviet world. It also
aspires to be a catalyst for creative, strategic thinking and a wider
understanding of the new global environment. In 2004, the Center focuses
primarily on public outreach, civic education, and applied research on
critical domestic and foreign policy issues for the state and the nation.
For further information on the Center or the full graphics of the poll
results, call (3741) 52-87-80 or 27-48-18; fax (3741) 52-48-46; e-mail
[email protected] or [email protected]; or visit or