Azeri experts take dim view of Russia’s Karabakh proposals
Ekho, Baku
16 Sep 04
The meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents, Ilham Aliyev
and Robert Kocharyan, on the sidelines of the CIS summit in Astana
lasted for about two and a half hours, the Russian RIA Novosti
news agency reports. The sides focused on issues of the Karabakh
settlement. Also attending the meeting were the co-chairmen of the
OSCE Minsk Group – Steven Mann (USA), Yuriy Merzlyakov (Russia)
and Henry Jacolin (France). However, 20 minutes later the mediators
left the presidents alone. After the tete-a-tete meeting of the
two presidents, they were joined by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
[Passage omitted: reported details of the three presidents’ remarks
after the meeting]
Meanwhile, the influential newspaper Kommersant reports that the
Kremlin had put forward a formula which can bring about a breakthrough
in resolving the Nagornyy Karabakh problem. Moscow believes that Baku
and Yerevan are close to adopting this formula. The essence of the
“magic formula” is quite simple: the withdrawal of the Armenian troops
from the Azerbaijani territories surrounding Nagornyy Karabakh in
exchange for referenda on the status of Nagornyy Karabakh in Karabakh
itself and in Azerbaijan.
The newspaper says that Moscow certainly understands that the outcomes
of the two referenda would be diametrically opposite and that a miracle
won’t happen: Karabakh will vote for independence, while Baku will
want to re-establish control over it. But the start of a settlement
is likely to alleviate tension in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
At the same time, Moscow will secure the role of the main mediator
in the Karabakh settlement, which couldn’t happen at a more opportune
moment.
MP Bahar Muradova, commenting on the Kremlin’s formula, says the
Azerbaijani president is highly unlikely to fully approve of and
accept it.
“I don’t think our side will accept the suggestions on a Karabakh
settlement that call into question the territorial integrity of
Azerbaijan,” she said.
Muradova described as absurd the holding of a referendum in Karabakh
with no regard for the principle of Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity. The MP said that two referenda on the same issue cannot
be held in one state.
“I see this as an attempt to question Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity,” she added.
MP Gular Ahmadova describes Moscow’s formula as an attempt to ridicule
Azerbaijan.
“What referendum in Karabakh can we talk about when there is not a
single Azerbaijani there? If Moscow cannot ‘cope with’ the Chechens,
what suggestions can it make on Karabakh?”
Political analyst Rasim Musabayov says a referendum that would
determine the status of Nagornyy Karabakh is unacceptable for Baku.
“The results of a referendum cannot have a political effect because
the issue of altering the Azerbaijani borders is the prerogative of the
Azerbaijani people. The status of Nagornyy Karabakh can be established
only by a referendum on the entire territory of Azerbaijan,” he said.
The expert added that only the withdrawal of the Armenian troops
from the Azerbaijani territories surrounding Nagornyy Karabakh can
be discussed in this case.
The former foreign minister, Tofiq Zulfuqarov, believes that the
presence of the “Moscow formula” is certainly in Azerbaijan’s
interests. The analyst supports the idea of Armenia vacating the
territories surrounding Nagornyy Karabakh in exchange for security
guarantees for the Karabakh Armenians. The former minister added
that a referendum in the occupied territory would make it less likely
because it would determine the status of Nagornyy Karabakh.
[Passage to end omitted: comments by Russian officials]