If the Armenians wish, they can conquer Azerbaijan

AZG Marmenian Daily, Armenia
Aug 20 2004


While in Baku They Are Hopeful That “in the Coming 25-30 Years There
Will Be No State Called Armenia in the Southern Caucasus”

“‘How to liberate the occupied territories?’ This question is likely
to be put forward in each family of Azerbaijan. It is impossible to
liberate the Nagorno Karabagh and the neighboring regions without
military actions. There has been no case in the military history when
the conquered territories were voluntarily liberated,” the recent
issue of Baku’s Zerkalo wrote. Ramiz Melikov, Press Speaker of Azeri
Defense Minister, stated recently that “there will be no state called
Armenia in the South Caucasus in the coming 25-30 years, as today’s
Armenia was founded on the Azeri historical territories and in near
future these lands will be controlled by Azerbaijan.” Melikov didn’t
specify how they are going to conquer Armenia.

President Ilham Aliyev and the supreme military officials state in
public that the Azeri army is more efficient than the Armenian one
and if the peaceful negotiations yield no results, Azerbaijan will
have to solve the issue of Nagorno Karabagh and the neighboring
territories under Armenia’s control through military actions. It’s
worth mentioning that Baku has been consistently trying to solve the
issue through military actions since 1998, when the new stage of
Karabagh struggle began.

Vladimir Kazimirov, Former Special Russian Ambassador of OSCE Minsk
Group, wrote in one of his recent articles that the sides in conflict
had many opportunities to stop the war, to set up ceasefire even in
1992. He states in his article that the Azeri side was violating the
ceasefire mainly, hoping to solve the conflict through war, making
all the Armenians leave the territory.

Kazimirov said that in June of 1992, there appeared an opportunity to
stop the military actions on the front line and open the OSCE Minsk
conference, but Abulfaz Elchibey put forward a precondition, i.e. the
Armenians should leave Shushi and Lachin. On May 8 and 18 the
Karabagh forces liberated Shushi and took control over Lachin
corridor, securing land connection between Armenia and Karabagh.

Kazimirov, who implemented a mediator’s mission in the region for 47
times, recollects that in July, 1992 the Karabagh side agreed to
signing ceasefire, but Elchibey was stubborn, and only in the spring
of 1993, when the Karabagh forces took the control over Kelbajar, the
pro-Turkish Baku government gave consent for ceasefire.

One shouldn’t forget that Elchibey once promised to wash his feet in
the Sevan waters. It’s worth mentioning that the Azeri armed forces
conquered almost the half of Karabakh’s territory in the summer of

In June of 1993, the Azeris and the Karabagh people began direct
negotiations that helped make a ceasefire for a while. But Heydar
Aliyev, who came to power in Baku through military revolution, wanted
to regain the lost through military action. Again the Azeris began
refusing the settlement of the Nagorno Karabagh conflict through
negotiations. On July 23 the Karabagh forces took the control over
Aghdam, the neighboring dwelling places, a number of hills of
military meaning. Only after all these steps the Azeris stopped
bombing Stepanakert.

Notwithstanding the obvious military benefits, the Karabagh side
through the Russians’ mediatorial efforts again gave the consent to
stop military actions and set up a ceasefire on July 24, the very
next day after conquering Aghdam. Azerbaijan secured the ceasefire
for several days, but it broke the agreement afterwards. As a result,
the Karabagh forces took control over Fizuli, Jebrail and Kubatlun in
the August of 1993.

Two secret meetings took place between Heydar Aliyev and Robert
Kocharian in Moscow in the autumn of 1993. In this period Aliyev was
engaged in settling the problems of inner character, he made legal
the results of the military-state revolution that took place several
months ago and occupied the post of Azerbaijan’s leader. Few days
after the inauguration the Azeri armed forces began the military
actions again. Hundreds of the Armenian soldiers were killed as a
result of the large-scale attack in Kelbajar’s direction in winter.
But the failure didn’t last long. The Karabagh forces began a
large-scale attack and Azerbaijan lost at least 2000 soldiers in few

In the April of 1994, the Karabagh forces were ready to conquer
Tartar, Bardan and Gianjan and reach Georgia’s border. The Azeri were
made to set a ceasefire. It took place in Bishkek, May. This
ceasefire is being secured till now with some violations.

By the way, the American Boston Globe daily dedicated a publication
to the Nagorno Karabagh Issue. The reporter of the daily cites the
words of Mamedov, Azeri Major, who was dwelling on the situation in
Azerbaijan fighting against Armenia and Azerbaijan. He says:” If the
Armenians wish, they can conquer the whole Azerbaijan.”

The militant statements made by the Baku officials should be paid
attention. As soon as Azerbaijan becomes certain about the
possibility of settling the issue through applying arms, the war will
begin. Anyway, the events of 1991-94 testify to this.

By Tatoul Hakobian