CrisisWatch No.12

Aug 3 2004

CrisisWatch No.12

International Crisis Group (ICG) – Belgium

July 2004 saw deteriorations in eight conflict situations worldwide,
according to August’s CrisisWatch bulletin. The 30 July simultaneous
suicide bombings of the U.S. and Israeli embassies and the general
prosecutor’s office in Tashkent aggravated the situation in
Uzbekistan. In Kashmir, violence increased in the run-up to
Indo-Pakistan peace talks, leaving over 200 dead, including numerous
civilians. Sri Lanka’s February 2002 ceasefire grew increasingly
fragile with the 8 July suicide bombing in Colombo, which killed four
police officers. Throughout the month, Thailand saw almost daily
killings of policemen, officials and village administrators in the
south of the country. The situations in Guinea, Madagascar, Moldova
and Peru also deteriorated in July.

On the positive side, four potential conflict situations showed some
improvement last month. After intensive negotiations, months of
stalemate in Côte d’Ivoire ended with a potential breakthrough, as
the opposition agreed to rejoin President Gbagbo’s government
following compromises on both sides. However, considerable scepticism
on implementation of the deal remained. In Nigeria, recent flare-ups
of ethno-religious violence, which had left hundreds dead in previous
months, subsided. Algeria and Bolivia also showed improvement in

For August 2004, CrisisWatch identifies Sri Lanka and Georgia as
Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at particular risk of further
conflict in the coming month. The only Conflict Resolution
Opportunity identified for August is Nagorno-Karabakh, where reports
of new Armenian flexibility have raised hopes of progress in
negotiations with Azerbaijan.

Deteriorated Situations
Guinea, Kashmir, Madagascar, Moldova, Peru, Sri Lanka, Thailand,

Improved Situations
Algeria, Bolivia, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque
region (Spain), Bosnia-Herzegovina, Burundi, Chad, Chechnya (Russia),
China (internal), Colombia, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea, East
Timor, Egypt, Georgia, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran,
Iraq, Israel/Occupied Territories, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kosovo,
Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Morocco,
Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, North Korea,
Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia,
Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait,
Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Venezuela, Western Sahara,
Yemen, Zimbabwe

Conflict Risk Alert
Georgia, Sri Lanka

Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress