Courier Online, May 18, 2026
1- Will Nikol Pashinyan Remain in Office
Sassounian
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1- Will Nikol Pashinyan Remain in Office
Armenians around the world are closely following Armenia’s parliamentary election campaign to see whether Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s party will retain its majority in parliament, allowing him to remain in office for another five years.
These elections could have two major consequences: One for Armenia’s future and the other for Pashinyan himself.
1) Consequences for Armenia
Given Pashinyan’s disastrous record over the past eight years, many Armenians fear that if he remains in power, Armenia’s very survival could be at risk. Here are some of his major failures:
a) Mismanaging the 2020 war with Azerbaijan which resulted in the loss of most of Artsakh and the deaths of thousands of Armenian soldiers;
b) Allowing the Azeri army to invade and continue occupying parts of the territory of the Republic of Armenia since 2021 and 2022;
c) Declaring in 2022 that Artsakh is part of Azerbaijan, despite previously proclaiming that “Artsakh is Armenia, period”;
d) Failing in 2023 to prevent the forced displacement of 120,000 Armenians from Artsakh;
e) Treating the Artsakh issue as closed and referring to Artsakh refugees as “escapees”;
f) Claiming that surrendering Artsakh strengthened Armenia’s independence;
g) Interfering in the internal affairs of the Armenian Apostolic Church in violation of the Constitution and imprisoning several senior clergymen;
h) Failing to secure the release of Armenian detainees and Artsakh leaders held in Baku;
i) Repeatedly complying with Pres. Ilham Aliyev’s demands for concessions on major Armenian issues.
2) Consequences for Pashinyan personally
Pashinyan’s future may depend entirely on the outcome of these elections. Because of his violations of Armenia’s laws and Constitution, he could face arrest and persecution if he loses power. For that reason, he will do everything possible — legally or otherwise — to secure victory in the June 7 elections and avoid imprisonment.
Despite, widespread dissatisfaction, Pashinyan may still remain in office because incumbents typically benefit from extensive resources of the state during election campaigns. In addition, because of the concessions he had made, he has gained support from Azerbaijan, Turkey, the European Union, and the United States. They understand that if the opposition forces win, many of Pashinyan’s policies and concessions could be reversed.
Nevertheless, Pashinyan’s political standing has declined dramatically. His approval rating, which stood at 82% in 2018, has fallen to slightly over 10% in 2026. This sharp decline could create an opportunity for opposition parties to take power.
However, the opposition faces several serious obstacles.
Fragmented Opposition
1) Armenia, despite its small size, has an astonishing 123 registered political parties, many consisting of little more than a founder and a small circle of followers. Fortunately, not all of them are participating in the June 7 elections. Still, 19 political entities have officially registered: 17 individual parties and 2 coalitions. This fragmentation benefits the ruling party because the opposition becomes divided among numerous competing groups.
Coalition Possibilities
If opposition parties collectively secure slightly more than 50% of the vote and successfully form a coalition in parliament, they would have the power to nominate their Prime Minister and remove Pashinyan from office.
Armenia’s Complex Electoral System
Armenia’s electoral system combines elements of Israeli-style proportional representation, German-style stability mechanism, and post-Soviet Eastern European reforms.
Under current law:
1) A political party must receive at least 4% of the vote to enter parliament.
2) Coalitions of two or three parties must receive at least 8%.
3) Coalitions of more than three parties must receive at least 10%.
Votes cast for parties that fail to meet these thresholds are redistributed proportionally among the successful parties.
The Opposition’s Biggest Problem
The most controversial aspect of this system is that if Pashinyan’s party receives the largest share of the vote, it will also receive a significant portion of the redistributed votes from failed opposition parties. Ironically, voters casting ballots against Pashinyan could unintentionally help strengthen his parliamentary majority. For that reason, many smaller parties with little realistic chance of crossing the threshold should not have entered the race. By doing so, they risk splitting the anti-Pashinyan vote and indirectly benefiting the ruling party.
One Unusual Safeguard
One unusual feature of Armenia’s electoral system is that parliament must contain at least three political parties. Therefore, if only one party crosses the required threshold, the next two highest-performing parties may still receive representation even if they failed to reach 4%. In such a case, those additional parties collectively would receive one-third of the parliamentary seats regardless of their actual vote totals.
What the Opposition Must Do
If opposition parties want to improve their chances, they should focus less on persuading loyal Pashinyan supporters to switch sides. Many government supporters benefit from state employment, large bonuses, and privileged contracts and are therefore unlikely to abandon the ruling party. Instead, opposition groups should concentrate on mobilizing the large number of eligible voters who currently say they do not plan to vote.
If opposition forces succeed in gaining a parliamentary majority, one of their first priorities should be reforming Armenia’s electoral laws and replacing the current system with a more conventional voting structure similar to those used in many other countries.
In the meantime, every registered Armenian voter should participate in the June 7 elections to avoid leaving the country’s future in the hands of others.
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Armenia will send aid to Lebanon to help the country amid the humanitarian crisis resulting from ongoing hostilities.
The decision to send humanitarian assistance, consisting of food and medicines, was approved at a Cabinet meeting on Thursday.
Armenia plans to provide targeted humanitarian assistance by ensuring the supply of essential food and sanitary and hygienic goods, as well as medicines, needed to meet the basic needs of the affected population.
The list of necessary items was presented to the Cabinet by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
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His trip into Artsakh was part of a group tour, after attempts to obtain an individual permit proved nearly impossible. Visitors were not allowed to leave the van at any point, and access to sites was strictly controlled, shaping the narrative presented during the visit.
The blogger also drew personal parallels between his family history in North Korea and the Armenians who have been cut off from their historical lands, highlighting a shared experience of displacement and loss.
He described his drive through largely deserted territory as haunting. Upon reaching Stepanakert, the capital city of Artsakh, his first impressions were stark: “Tragedy, sadness. Everywhere you go, it’s just empty houses.”
At the city’s entrance, he noted the heavy presence of Azerbaijani state symbols, including flags and music blasting through the streets. “Not enough Azerbaijani flags and blasting Azeri music. I get it, we’re in ‘Azerbaijan’,” he said.
The blogger highlighted widespread abandonment and damage across the city. Many Armenian landmarks had been destroyed, remodeled, or repurposed. Yet the iconic “We Are Our Mountains” monument, also known as “Grandma and Grandpa,” remained intact. He interpreted this as a political decision: although the authorities appear intent on erasing the Armenian heritage, the monument was left as a carefully controlled symbol to show that the government dictates which elements of the past are allowed to remain.
“It is the only Armenian symbol standing here, because the government says it stays, despite wanting everything Armenian to be gone,” he said.
Repeated requests to visit Armenian cultural and religious landmarks were blocked or redirected. Notably, he was denied proper access to the Holy Mother of God Cathedral in Stepanakert, one of the city’s most significant religious and cultural sites.
“I wanted to see the main cultural icon here, which is the church, but they kept shutting us down… which made me suspicious about what they’re doing to it,” he said.
According to the blogger, the group repeatedly asked to be shown more about Armenian history in the region, but they were repeatedly told they were running late. Ultimately, they were not shown much and received little information about the Armenian origin of city.
He also documented the destruction of Artsakh’s governmental and educational buildings. The Artsakh Parliament’s building had reportedly been demolished and replaced with a “victory park,” while the Artsakh State University headquarters had been renamed and remodeled after the occupation to reflect a new identity.
“It is completely unrecognizable,” he said, reflecting on the city’s cultural and administrative landmarks.
Throughout the visit, the guide consistently emphasized Azerbaijani narratives, leaving little room for independent exploration. By the end, the blogger said frustration had set in.
“Stepanakert was supposed to be the highlight… but instead, we did not step foot in the city. The controlled narrative was getting tiresome.”
Beyond the tours and cultural restrictions, the blogger also reported being scammed by local hotels. He described poor service, hidden charges, and deceptive practices, estimating that the incidents cost him around $2,400 in total damages.
He also noted the stark contrast between the Azerbaijan’s display of oil wealth and the lack of real substance behind that carefully curated image.
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YEREVAN /ARKA/ — Armenian businesses must prepare in advance for new competitive conditions in the event of the opening of regional communications and the Armenian-Turkish border. This was stated by Arsen Ghazaryan, Chairman of the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of Armenia (UIEA), during an expanded meeting of the organization’s Board.
Regarding the future of entrepreneurship in the context of geopolitical changes, the opening of regional communications routes, the establishment of Armenian-Turkish relations, and new contacts with neighboring countries, Ghazaryan urged businesses to analyze and prepare in advance for the positive and negative challenges of the competitive environment.
According to the UIEA Chairman, the expected opening of borders requires changes to existing market marketing and the entire import policy.
It was noted that Turkey is a hub for large transnational corporations and is more technologically advanced than it was 10-20 years ago, particularly in the trade sector. In particular, he noted, importers of electrical equipment and machinery will inevitably work with this market, for which they must be prepared.
“The educational level of management in the neighboring country is incomparably higher. Although we have repeatedly documented the success of Armenian entrepreneurship, there is still a risk of absorption and displacement,” Kazaryan emphasized.
On May 13 of this year, Ankara announced the completion of preparations for the launch of direct trade between Turkey and Armenia. Yerevan noted that direct trade between Armenia and Turkey, in the customs sense, has become possible—without the need for new formalities.
On the Armenian-Turkish Dialogue
Armenia and Turkey have not had diplomatic relations since 1991, and the border between the two countries has been closed since 1993 at Ankara’s initiative. Key issues included recognition of the Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
In December 2021, Deputy Speaker of the Armenian National Assembly Ruben Rubinyan and former Turkish Ambassador to the United States Serdar Kılıç were appointed special representatives for the normalization of relations.
Direct cargo air travel between the countries became possible on January 1, 2023.
On September 24, 2024, in New York, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan confirmed their readiness to continue normalization without preconditions.
On April 12, 2025, the foreign ministers of the two countries discussed the bilateral agenda on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum. On September 12, 2025, Rubinyan and Kılıç agreed to expedite the implementation of agreements on opening the land border to third-country nationals and persons with diplomatic passports, as well as on the railway project, the Gyumri-Kars power line, and increasing the number of flights.
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Inconsistency between Government reluctance to formally acknowledge Armenian genocide and clear stance on Gaza
On hilltop looking out over the Armenian capital, Yerevan, are a dozen towering grey granite pillars, built leaning towards each other in a circle.
In the ground below there’s a burning flame that commemorates the more than one million Armenian people who were exterminated a century ago.
A summit of nearly 50 European leaders in Yerevan was staged five minutes walk away, in a futuristic looking event centre built during the later years of Soviet rule in the south Caucasus country.
Micheál Martin wasn’t able to take the short stroll to the genocide memorial after the summit wrapped up. Ireland has not formally recognised the Armenian genocide, so Martin would have created an awkward situation on the diplomatic front had he stopped to pay his respects in an official capacity.
More than a million Armenians living under Ottoman rule were estimated to have been killed by the Turk-led regime, in a campaign of ethnic persecution that began during the first World War.
Paranoid the Armenian minority posed a threat to the stability of the empire, Ottoman authorities set about forcibly clearing the Christian communities from large swathes of the empire’s territory in 1915.
The plan was preceded by early defeats for the Ottoman army in the war, which were blamed on the Armenian minority.
A massive deportation campaign forced the Armenian population on long marches to the Syrian desert. Food and water was scarce and huge numbers died. Brutal violence, abuse and killings were also common. Those who survived were imprisoned in concentration camps where many more starved to death.
The Armenian state has said the plan was a clear attempt to wipe out the population and constituted a genocide.
Turkey has always pushed back against classing the deportation and mass deaths as genocide, saying, rather, the “mandatory transfer” was a chaotic, wartime act of an empire on the verge of collapse and not a premeditated plan to exterminate the Armenian population.
“What happened in 1915, it is classic genocide,” said Hrachia Tashchian, acting director of the Armenian genocide memorial museum and institute.
More than half of the states in the European Union recognise the Armenian genocide. In total 31 countries or parliaments have done so worldwide.
“I believe that countries that have not recognised yet the genocide, they did it for political reasons,” Tashchian said.
The persecution of the Armenians “completely corresponds” to the criteria set out in the United Nations’ genocide convention of 1948. “Intentional destruction, intentional elimination,” he said.
There is a tradition that visiting dignitaries plant a fir tree on the grounds of the Yerevan memorial, known as Tsitsernakaberd.
You can gauge how long it took different countries to mark the genocide by the height of the fir tree beside each plaque marking the visit. Trees planted by Russian and French politicians decades ago are huge now.
That’s not surprising. Armenia has historically been deeply wedded to Moscow and there is a huge Armenian diaspora in France, the largest in western Europe. Newer trees planted in recent years are only a metre high.
The Department of Foreign Affairs has resisted formally classing what happened to the Armenians as a genocide.
Then-minister for foreign affairs Simon Coveney told the Dáil in 2019 that the Republic would not be joining others who had done so.
There was “no international consensus” on the subject. “Ireland follows the practice of recognising genocide only where this has been established by a judgment of an international court, or where there is international consensus on the matter,” he said.in new window
However, that position is at odds with the Government’s response to Israel’s actions in Gaza, where it has publicly called out the bombardment and starvation of Palestinians as genocidal.
Responding to questions in the Dáil last May, Martin said Israel was “committing genocide in Gaza right now. Let us call a spade a spade.”
South Africa, joined by Ireland and others, has taken a case to the International Court of Justice, though the UN court has yet to rule on whether Israel breached the genocide convention.
The Department of Foreign Affairs did not respond to questions about the differing standards used when considering Armenia’s claims of genocide.
Ireland of course accepts the Holocaust of Europe’s Jews by the Nazis as a genocide.
Tashchian, who was previously a diplomat and adviser to the prime minister Nikol Pashinyan, said the Armenian debate was caught up in geopolitical calculations.
Turkey is a powerful player internationally and a key regional partner for many western governments.
“Turkey wants to move this issue to the political field … There is no question was it genocide, there is no question for us,” Tashchian said. Turkey had “written their own history” playing down what happened to the Armenians, he said.
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Panorama.am
Armenian lawyer Ara Zohrabyan on Monday accused defrocked cleric Arman Saroyan of unlawfully withdrawing more than 15 million drams ($39,000) from diocesan bank accounts despite lacking legal authority to manage them.
Speaking at a news conference, Zohrabyan said judge Edgar Hovhannisyan, who also serves as a member of Armenia’s Supreme Judicial Council, had repeatedly demonstrated bias in favor of Saroyan by upholding interim court measures that allowed him continued access to the accounts of the Masyatsotn (Masis) Diocese.
“The court has created a very serious situation for the Armenian Apostolic Church,” Zohrabyan said. “Arman Saroyan, who is no longer a cleric and has been defrocked, is carrying out banking transactions on the basis of a court ruling and what we consider an arbitrary interpretation by the law enforcement officer.”
Saroyan was removed from his post as head of the Masyatsotn Diocese by a decree of Catholicos Karekin II. According to Zohrabyan, the church leader also terminated Saroyan’s banking authority following his dismissal.
However, Saroyan later challenged his removal in court. Zohrabyan said the court granted interim relief prohibiting the Armenian Apostolic Church and related parties from taking actions that could obstruct Saroyan’s exercise of authority as diocesan leader, including access to financial accounts.
Zohrabyan criticized Armenia’s Compulsory Enforcement Service, alleging it had acted improperly and effectively served Saroyan’s personal interests during the dispute.
“The enforcement officers have acted as though they are Saroyan’s personal employees,” he said, accusing them of sending threatening letters to clergy members and representatives of the diocese, including acting diocesan administrator Fr. Ruben Vardapet Zargaryan.
According to Zohrabyan, law enforcement authorities empowered Saroyan to conduct banking operations despite the church’s decision to revoke his authority, a move he said exceeded their legal powers.
“As of April 1, more than 15 million drams had already been withdrawn from the accounts,” Zohrabyan said. “Significant sums remain in those accounts and we are concerned the funds could be depleted.”
He added that requests to lift the interim court measures had been rejected.
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