Verelq: The opposition certainly has chances of success. expert (ask

Photo: sputnik

The public dissatisfied with the authorities in Armenia is not homogeneous. Therefore, it is quite natural that the opposition field is also multi-layered. it allows you to work with voters with different views and avoid the primitive formula of “black and white” imposed by the government. About this VERELQin a conversation with the political commentator Hakob Badalyan, analyzing the current tactics of the Armenian opposition and the real chances of success in the upcoming elections.


It is discussed in the interview Սամվել Կարապետյանի to the factor as a new and influential player who, according to the analyst, significantly complicates the work of government propaganda with his socio-economic emphasis. Hakob Badalyan with conviction, despite a certain public apathy, the authorities’ noticeable anxiety and harsh rhetoric testify to a certain effectiveness of the opposition’s actions. The conversation about these and other issues of the opposition field’s tactics is below.



 Hakob Badalyan is in the photo, the source is 168.am


VERELQ. Mr. Badalyan, let’s talk about the latest developments and opportunities in the opposition field. Recently, some activity has been noticeable, especially after the rally initiated by businessman Samvel Karapetyan on April 11. In your opinion, what are the current processes in the opposition camp, what are the main directions, and do you see real chances that the opposition can win the upcoming elections?


Hakob Badalyan. From the point of view of the processes, the opposition seems to continue to work in several directions. Two or three main formats of guiding frameworks have been developed. It’s hard to say whether this was a pre-arranged tactic or it just happened that way, but given public sentiment, this is perhaps the most optimal option. The government’s response also testifies to that. For example: (Prime Minister of RA) Nikol Pashinyan tries to present all these forces as one common unit, force acting with one purpose and one package. This shows that the multi-branch format worries the government. From the government’s actions, it can be assumed that there is a certain effectiveness in the actions of the opposition, therefore, the opposition certainly has chances of success.


Another question is how that opportunity will be used. There are about two months left until the elections, and the government, in its turn, will try to neutralize the trump cards of the opposition.


VERELQ. Sociological polls also show that the protestant electorate is quite large, although at the moment some people are apathetic. Is it really possible for different echelons of the opposition to issue separate messages (Samvel Karapetyan, Robert Kocharyan, Gagik Tsarukyan) to activate people and satisfy their various expectations?


If the government switches to harsh methods, the use of legal mechanisms, or blackmail rhetoric (for example, the thesis that if they are not there, there will be a war), it means that they see the result of the widespread work of the opposition with the public. It is difficult to assess how effective it is. There are two means of measurement: the results of the elections, which are still two months away, and public opinion polls. However, I am skeptical about public opinion polls published in Armenia for the simple reason that the society itself does not trust them, and it is very relative whether the respondents answer honestly. The effectiveness is visible, but whether its dynamics and volume are sufficient for a high probability of success is still uncertain.


VERELQ. There are two main approaches to the tactics of the opposition’s struggle today. Some circles, in particular, the third Serzh Sargsyan’s political wing, suggest to everyone, especially the second president Robert Kocharyan, to withdraw from the election and create a polarized, “black and white” electoral environment, where the fight will be exclusively between Samvel Karapetyan and Nikol Pashinyan. They believe that in this way the people will make a clear choice in favor of the opposition. To what extent is this the right tactic, and does such extreme polarization actually increase the opposition’s chances?


Hakob Badalyan. I think that the image of our society is not at all “black and white”, and the opposition electorate is not homogeneous in its assessments. I don’t know what that suggestion is based on, maybe there are some in-depth studies, but I repeat, I am skeptical about this.


For example, a significant number of opposition-minded people may vote Samvel Karapetyan, but under no circumstances vote if he cooperates Robert Kocharyan with. Or on the contrary, there are people who trust Robert Kocharyan and will not vote for any other oppositionist if the latter withdraws his candidacy. The issue here is not only Karapetyan or Kocharyan. Today, in my opinion, the opposition electorate constitutes an overwhelming majority, but this majority differs in its attitude towards individual political forces. That is why artificial “black and white” is a non-working model. On the contrary, it is much more effective to provide a broad front in different formats to bring voters to polling stations.


It is no coincidence that it is Nikol Pashinyan who strives to get that “black and white” image. In that case, he will be able to use the still somewhat viable formula of “past-present”. If everyone unites and supports Samvel Karapetyan, a green way will be opened for Pashinyan to present him as the ambassador of the “formers”. Now Pashinyan cannot do this, because Karapetyan is not a “former” in the classical sense. although he worked with the previous authorities, he also worked with Nikol Pashinyan with the same success until the last years, when the politics of Armenia changed radically.


In addition, it is not possible to involve Karapetyan in the thesis of “looting”. The authorities are trying to make propaganda manipulations using the topic of Armenia’s electric grids, but it doesn’t work, because it is clear that he has accumulated his wealth in Russia. For any sane person, presenting him as a “robber of Armenia” cannot be convincing. But if the opposition unites around him with a single front, Pashinyan will get fertile ground to label him as a representative of “looters”.


VERELQ. Summarizing our conversation, I would like to ask you to highlight what are the main weaknesses and strengths of the opposition at this time, in the current election cycle.


Hakob Badalyan. The downside, in general, is the missed time. The conversation with the public with the logic and content, which is carried out only in recent months, should have started much earlier. For example, the parliamentary opposition wasted too much time on acting according to the logic of “black and white” confrontation, when it was obvious that it would have no other effect than to support Pashinyan’s positions. The loss of time is conventionally a weakness, because through consistent work it is possible to fill the gap, but it still makes itself felt.


As for the strengths, today the greatest advantage of the opposition in the collective sense is the involvement of a new player, Samvel Karapetyan. As I mentioned, this has created serious problems for Pashinyan in playing out his traditional formulas. This does not mean that the opposition will achieve guaranteed success thanks to this strong point, but it has indeed strengthened the positions of the opposition. It is especially important that Karapetyan does not touch on traditional, worn-out topics in his work with society, but emphasizes the socio-economic potential of the country, public solidarity and the logic of changing Armenia’s internal qualities. This, in my estimation, strengthens the opposition field in a collective sense, although naturally there are also many other factors that affect the general picture.

Asbarez: UCI Armenian Studies to Host Diaspora Symposium

The University of California, Irvine’s Center for Armenian Studies will host a one-day international symposium titled “New Diasporas for an Old Diaspora: Armenian Hybrid Communities in the 21st Century” on Saturday, May 2, at Humanities Gateway 1030.

The symposium launches a conversation about Armenian diasporic formations that have emerged over the past fifty years—formations shaped by secondary migrations, conflicts and precarities in diaspora homelands, post-colonial and post-socialist histories, geopolitics, and new global circuits of labor and culture.

Moving beyond the dominant “classic diaspora” model rooted in the post-genocide era, the symposium examines how Armenian life today is organized through layered, hybrid, and emergent worlds that coexist within both shared and separate spaces while carrying distinct historical and cultural trajectories.

Bringing together international scholars from across disciplines, the event takes Southern California as one critical site among others, inviting participants to rethink the Armenian diaspora as a recursive, adaptive, and future-oriented condition.

The program features two thematic panels focusing on Armenian diasporas in California and emerging global communities, culminating in a roundtable discussion.
This symposium is free and open to the public. Program will begin at 9:30, coffee and light refreshments will be served.

The UCI Center for Armenian Studies extends its gratitude to its co-sponsors: UC Irvine Departments of History, Comparative Literature, and Global and International Studies; the National Association for Armenian Studies and Research; the Society for Armenian Studies; and Armenian Communities Department of the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation.

Click here to view symposium program.

ANCA Capitol Hill Briefing Warns that Flawed ‘Peace’ Process Creates Conditio

Congressional staff join Armenian American advocates at a capacity Capitol Hill Staff Briefing


Expert Panelists and ANCA Policy Director Deconstruct Terms of One-Sided Surrender of Armenian Security and Sovereignty; Explore Options for a Just and Durable Peace

WASHINGTON – A U.S.-brokered peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan that leaves Armenian hostages in Azerbaijani detention, denies Artsakh’s 150,000 refugees their right of return, and rewards Azerbaijan’s genocidal ethnic cleansing with a 99-year transport corridor through sovereign Armenian territory is not a path to peace — but rather a blueprint for the destruction of the Armenian state. This stark assessment was delivered on Wednesday at a Capitol Hill Staff Briefing hosted by the Armenian National Committee of America, titled “Peace Without Justice in the South Caucasus.”

ANCA Policy Director Alex Galitsky, Dr. Robert Krikorian, and Karnig Kerkonian convene the “Peace Without Justice in the South Caucasus” Congressional staff briefing on Apr. 15

The briefing, held at Cannon HOB Room 130, featured a round table discussion moderated by ANCA Policy Director Alex Galitsky with Dr. Robert Krikorian, a retired senior State Department official and Harvard-trained historian with more than two decades of intelligence and senior advisory experience, and Karnig Kerkonian, an international human rights lawyer and founding partner of Kerkonian Dajani LLP.

“The peace agreement, as it currently stands, includes no clause that would require the release of Armenian prisoners of war from arbitrary detention and custody,” said Galitsky. “It would require no commitment on Azerbaijan’s part to protect the millennia-old Armenian Christian heritage in Artsakh. It would not deal in any way with the status of the 150,000 Armenians who were forced from their homes, who want nothing more than to be able to return to the lands in which their families have lived for thousands of years.”

A Diktat, Not a Peace
Dr. Krikorian, drawing on his 22 years at the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, offered an unsparing assessment of the peace process itself.

“This is not a peace being negotiated between two parties,” stated Dr. Krikorian. “This is a diktat by Azerbaijan, with the backing of Turkey and the acquiescence of the West, for Armenia to capitulate fully and completely. Any peace that is forced on Armenia without the slightest concern for its sovereignty or viability is bound to fail. The only question for me is how much damage will it inflict on Armenia, whether in the short term or in the long term.”

“The so-called TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) is an ill-conceived project with little to no chance of success,” he added. “And even if it does succeed, Armenia and Armenians will see no benefit from it — only weakened borders, weakened sovereignty, and an inability to defend itself from Turkish and Azerbaijani aggression.”

The Artsakh Genocide: 932 Days and Counting
Kerkonian, who is president of the Armenian Legal Defense Fund, has represented Armenian victims before international courts and taught public international law at Artsakh State University, placed the peace process squarely in the context of an ongoing genocide.

Kerkonian drew a direct line from Aliyev’s public statements to the logic of appeasement — and its consequences. “When you have the leader of a country stating that ‘Armenians are dogs, Armenians are cancer,’ that ‘it needs to be ripped out of society,’ and that ‘Armenia is not even a state but a colony, not worthy of being served’ — that’s coming from the head of state,” he said. “You can’t ignore that when you’re thinking about how to achieve peace. One of the biggest mistakes of our time — and one that our lessons after World War II should have taught us — is that appeasement, whitewashing genocidal intent, does not produce peace. It doesn’t even bring war. It brings genocide.”

Kerkonian noted that international efforts are ramping up to secure justice for this crime. “Let’s not forget that the Artsakh Genocide — it’s only been 932 days since a population, an indigenous population, that lived on that land for 5,000 years has been removed,” he stated. “So this is relatively early.”

Armenian Sovereignty Under Siege
Beyond the humanitarian failures, panelists described a systematic campaign by Azerbaijan to dismantle Armenian sovereignty on multiple fronts simultaneously.

“The continued presence of Azerbaijani troops on sovereign Armenian territory sends a very clear signal that Baku does not feel compelled in any way to abide by any agreement with Armenia,” stated Krikorian. “Their presence is a clear and present danger to Armenia, and it signals Baku’s readiness to use force.”

Krikorian connected that military posture to Azerbaijan’s broader territorial ambitions. “We’ve seen an uptick in rhetoric regarding what the Aliyev regime refers to as ‘Western Azerbaijan,’” he said. “Western Azerbaijan is more commonly known as Armenia… Baku’s ultimate objective is not peace with Armenia but the dismantling of a sovereign and independent Armenian state.”

Kerkonian argued that Azerbaijan’s simultaneous demands — that Armenia amend its constitution, withdraw its ICJ cases, and accept Azerbaijani forces on its territory — reveal a single coherent strategy. “Armenia’s constitutional changes are not being dictated by the people of Armenia, but by the government of Azerbaijan,” he stated. “You have a dictator getting to determine what is written in the Armenian Constitution… The destruction of a people is not just dismemberment and burial of bodies. There is the destruction of memory, of agency.”

TRIPP: An Existential Threat
Kerkonian framed TRIPP’s structural terms — Armenia holding a 26% stake against a 74% U.S.-operated majority — as a sovereignty trap. “The 26% owner of a company is a minority shareholder. So in any structure, there’s a limitation,” he said. “De facto, it is an existential threat to Armenia, and it will remove the southern part of Armenia from Armenian control. At that point, Armenia becomes nothing more really than a rump state, surrounded by Azerbaijan and Turkey.”

ANCA-Backed Legislation
Galitsky noted that Azerbaijan’s sentencing of 16 Armenian prisoners of war — handed down in the days surrounding Vice President Vance’s visit to the South Caucasus — underscored the urgency of congressional action. “If the peace process itself was not going to address the status of prisoners, the right of return, protection of Armenian cultural heritage, or the presence of Azerbaijani forces in Armenian territory, then let us find ways to use the existing tools and mechanisms we have at our disposal here in the U.S. Congress to really put pressure on Azerbaijan to change course.”

“We are extremely disappointed to see that the same day that this agreement was initialed in August, President Trump waived Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, thereby creating a pathway for renewed U.S. military assistance to Azerbaijan, which we see is fundamentally reckless to happen before an agreement has been signed, and also while Azerbaijan’s abuses are ongoing,” said Galitsky.

The ANCA is pressing Congress to pass two key pieces of bipartisan legislation: the Azerbaijan Sanctions Review Act of 2025 (H.R.5369), led by Representatives Dina Titus (D-NV) and Gus Bilirakis (R-FL), directing the Trump-Vance Administration to review Global Magnitsky sanctions against Azerbaijani officials responsible for war crimes and the illegal detention of Armenian prisoners; and the ARMENIA Security Partnership Act (H.R.6840), led by Congressional Armenian Caucus Co-Chairs Representatives Gus Bilirakis (R-FL) and Frank Pallone (D-NJ), which would prohibit the president from waiving Section 907 restrictions on U.S. aid to Azerbaijan unless the Aliyev regime takes concrete steps toward a lasting peace with Armenia. Similar efforts are expected in the Senate in the coming weeks.

Armenian Americans are encouraged to contact their Senators and Representatives to demand accountability for Azerbaijan’s unanswered crimes against the Armenian nation.

European Rights Court Sets Deadline for Azerbaijan to Submit Armenian Prisoner

Artsakh leaders during their sham trial in a Baku court


The European Court of Human Rights has once again instructed Azerbaijan to continue providing detailed information on Armenian detainees held in the country, including updates on their conditions of detention and health status, the International and Comparative Law Center reported.

Azerbaijan has repeatedly applied to the Court, seeking to lift the interim measure that obliges it to regularly report on the detainees. In its requests, Baku has maintained that all legal proceedings are being conducted in a transparent and public manner.

However, on April 9, 2026, the Court rejected Azerbaijan’s latest application and reaffirmed its earlier requirements. The ECHR ruled that Azerbaijan must continue submitting comprehensive updates, including recent medical records and documentation related to examinations and treatment provided to the detainees.

In addition, the Court instructed Azerbaijan to provide copies of court verdicts issued in criminal cases against Armenian prisoners of war, or at least detailed summaries of those rulings. These summaries must include the reasoning behind the judgments, supported by the evidence examined during the proceedings.

The next deadline set by the Court for submitting the required information is August 31, 2026.

Asbarez: Calif. Treasurer Fiona Ma to Deliver Keynote at OC’s 111th Genocide C

ORANGE COUNTY — The Armenian National Committee of America – Orange County is honored to announce that California State Treasurer Fiona Ma will deliver the keynote address at the Orange County community-wide observance of the 111th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. The commemoration will take place on Wednesday, April 22, at 6:30 p.m. at the OC Armenian Center, 5305 W. McFadden Ave, Santa Ana, California. 

“We are deeply grateful to Treasurer Ma for joining our community at this solemn and important occasion,” said ANCA Orange County Board Member Hagop Badolian. “Her presence sends a powerful message that California’s highest-ranking leaders stand with Armenian Americans in our pursuit of truth, justice, and recognition.”

Treasurer Ma, California’s 34th State Treasurer and the first woman of color elected to the position, has been a steadfast advocate for diverse communities across the state. As the state’s primary banker, she oversees trillions of dollars in annual transactions and manages an investment portfolio exceeding $155 billion. She has served in elected office at the local, regional, and state level for nearly three decades, including on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, in the California State Assembly — where she served as Speaker Pro Tempore — and on the California State Board of Equalization.

The April 24th anniversary marks the date in 1915 when Ottoman Turkish authorities arrested and deported hundreds of Armenian intellectuals and community leaders in Constantinople, signaling the start of the systematic extermination of 1.5 million Armenians. The Orange County commemoration brings together Armenian churches, schools, cultural organizations, and community members to honor the memory of the victims, celebrate the resilience of the survivors, and reaffirm the ongoing demand for justice and accountability.

This year’s observance carries added significance as Armenian prisoners of war and civilian hostages remain in Azerbaijani detention, and more than 120,000 Artsakh Armenians continue to live in forced displacement following Azerbaijan’s September 2023 ethnic cleansing campaign.

The Orange County Armenian American community has a long tradition of uniting across organizational lines each April to commemorate the Genocide, drawing participation from over a dozen community organizations, churches, and schools, as well as local, state, and federal elected officials.

|The Armenian National Committee of America – Orange County is the local grassroots chapter of the ANCA, the largest and most influential Armenian American advocacy organization in the United States. ANCA-OC advances the political, social, and cultural interests of the Armenian American community of Orange County through civic engagement, education, and coalition building.

168: Accountants’ feast of death

April 16, 2026


“Diesel fuel will be sent from Azerbaijan to Armenia 22 railway cars“, “4,500 tons of diesel fuel will be delivered from Azerbaijan to Armenia”, “Azerbaijan sends a new batch of petroleum products to Armenia”… these are the headlines of the weekly news, with which the Azerbaijani media informs about deliveries to Armenia through their territory. They inform with all the details and arithmetic accuracy.

These headers serve two purposes. The government of Azerbaijan shoves them in every possible report of all international organizations in order to strengthen its “peaceful image”. Another user of them is the government of Armenia, which is pushing the same headlines into the brains of the Armenian people to prove that such a blissful peace is no longer expressed in the form of fuel and grain.

In the case of gurus of international politics, as well as in the case of ordinary Armenian people, brainwashing is important, because in both cases, along with the principle of “money munnat”, it is also important to exclude the ability to think. Even, and more often than not, especially garbage-filled brains are deprived of the ability not only to think in the present, but also to remember the past, completely surrendering to the illusion of a fuel-grain future.

And not remembering the Armenian people is more important for the government of Azerbaijan, and therefore also for the government of Armenia, than all the goods transported and the amount of money received from it. If you remember, people can also experience associations and suddenly note that the weekly news of the Azerbaijani media about the batches of shipments through their territory is tragically similar to the ominous news received every day just six years ago about the quantities of bodies transported from Artsakh, which still belonged to us, to Armenia. An Armenian who feels this association can suddenly discover that the writers of those news in Azerbaijan are thinking and aiming for the expected almost open humiliation of Armenians. so many liters of diesel fuel in exchange for so many killed Armenians, so many tons of grain in exchange for the lives of hundreds of other young people who died in the strikes of Bayraktar the other days.

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The reality of sounding monstrous should not deter from the inevitability of calling things by their names and recording that Azerbaijan, under the calf delight of the Armenian government, pays us every week for accepting the thousand-year-old loss of our grandfathers’ territory and the murder of thousands of our children so casually and animal reconciliation. Azerbaijan closes the account by paying the Armenian people for the lives of their own children, from which the Armenian government receives a tip like a waiter who rolls for a penny.

This shipping story is not about peace any more than it is about war. This is a story about open accounts, which, instead of us, Azerbaijan closes, as any bashibozuk does, in response to the indiscriminate attitude of the other party.

Armenian Artsakh and the unclosed account of the lives of five thousand Armenians must be closed by some generation of Armenians, and it has nothing to do with revenge or war, although, if necessary, they should not be excluded.

Either the unclosed Armenian account will ever be closed, or Armenianness and Armenia will be closed.

Our conciliatory perception of fuel grain degradation today is a burden left to tomorrow’s generation that cannot be transported by any rail or other vehicle.

Industry and agriculture sectors in the government report and its

April 16, 2026

Government 2021-2026 In the report on the progress and results of the 2025 implementation of the activity plan, there are two more noteworthy and at the same time worrying records, which refer to the main key sectors of the export sector of the economy: industry and agriculture.

On page 22 of the report it is written: “In the January-December period of 2025, the volume of industrial output was about 3.3 trillion AMD, increasing by 329.4 billion AMD or 4.7% compared to about 3 trillion AMD in the same period of 2024.

… The number of workers in the manufacturing sector in 2025 was 94,998, an increase of 4,148 or 4.6% compared to 90,850 workers in 2024.”

Here again, the government has avoided answering the most important question: what is structurally happening to the sector, instead simply trying to create an imitation of positive dynamics. In particular, the key indicator, the weight of the manufacturing industry in the GDP, was bypassed in the report. Meanwhile, this is one of the main targets set by the government’s plan, namely to increase the weight of the manufacturing industry in the GDP to 15% by 2026. However, the actual picture shows the opposite. If the weight of the processing industry was 12.4% in 2020, it will decrease to 11% in 2025. In other words, not only is there no progress, but there has also been a regression. And, taking into account the current dynamics of the sector, expecting a sharp increase during 2026 is simply not realistic. This means that the 15% target set by the government program will most likely not be met.

This picture suggests that the “growth” presented in the industrial sector does not translate into structural change, the real role of the sector in the economy is decreasing. This is a simple indicator of the failure of economic policy.

The condition of the agricultural sector is equally, if not more, worrying. Despite a number of large-scale projects implemented by the government in the field of agriculture – establishment of new gardens, expansion of cultivated land, promotion of livestock breeding, increase of general productivity – the main emphasis in the report is not on results, but on processes. For example, it mentions the increase in hectares of established orchards, but does not say what this has done in terms of actual output.

Meanwhile, according to statistics, the picture is much clearer. 2018-2023 agriculture registered a cumulative decline of around 18.9%. Although in 2024-2025 there are some positive developments, they have not changed the general picture. As a result, in 2025 as of now, the output of the agricultural sector is still around 13.3% lower than in 2017. level (see diagram below).

Naturally, there is no emphasis on these facts in the report. Instead it states that “1,365 ha intensive park has been established. It is noteworthy that the actual planting of gardens within the framework of the program started in 2019: 37 hectares, compared to which the figure for 2025 has increased by about 37 times. In 2025, compared to 2024, the increase was 9.7%. From the start of the project, from 2018 to 2025 inclusive, 4,635 hectares of intensive gardens have been established.”

It turns out a strange situation. the sector has been in serious trouble for a long time, but unique successful projects are presented, only “convenient” numbers are raised: hectares, percentages, job growth, thereby trying to influence the formation of the general picture.

In summary, the economy faces structural problems, but the government presents to the public an image of a controlled and successful process. However, the longer the government hides the reality with formulations, the deeper the crisis that exists in reality will deepen. And the price for this will be paid not by the writers of the report, but by the economy, and ultimately every citizen of the country.

11 members of “Strong Armenia”, after the search, from Artashat to an unknown destination

April 16, 2026


In the morning, all offices of “Strong Armenia” in Artashat were searched and around 11 people were taken to unknown directions. Lawyer Yura Dilanyan told journalists about this.

“Until this moment, we are not aware, we are not able to know, in what status the persons were taken, where they were taken and for what they were taken. At the same time, we submitted applications, all the documentary bases that we are entitled to participate in the procedural investigative actions to be performed with our clients, but again in vain, we do not receive any information, we do not have any information.

It is obvious that a person’s right to self-defense has already been violated, and I don’t know in which year justice was served with such a repressive situation,” he said.

When asked why he is not allowed to hold a meeting, Dilanyan replied that the body conducting the proceedings does not provide any justification for this.

“Armenia is not on the agenda of EU-Turkey relations”. Armen Ashotyan

April 16, 2026


Armen Ashotyan writes: “Armenia is not on the EU-Turkey relations agenda

Yesterday, the Committee on Foreign Relations of the European Parliament approved another report related to Turkey’s EU membership, which will be adopted in its final form at one of the upcoming sessions of the European Parliament.

What should be learned from that report based on Armenia’s interests?

The first. Unlike the previous “Serzh years”, this time there is no demand or concern about the need to normalize relations with Armenia, there is no hint about the need to open the Armenian-Turkish border, or European concern and demand for improving bilateral relations.

The second. Unlike the previous “Serzh years”, there is no demand for Turkey to recognize the Armenian Genocide. Let me remind you that during “Serzh” the need to recognize the Armenian Genocide by the European Parliament was even raised as a precondition for Turkey’s membership in the EU.

The third. The concern of the European Union, however, remains regarding the Turkish policy regarding the Cyprus problem, as well as the need for the regulation of Turkish-Greek relations.

The fourth. Turkey’s alignment with the common foreign and defense policy of the European Union has reached a historical minimum of only 4 percent. Let me remind you that in the case of current managers of Armenia, this compliance is 30% more. This means that Turkey has continued and will continue to implement a foreign and defense policy based exclusively on its own interests, in which case the prospect of the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations will depend exclusively on Turkish interests. Not to mention the almost nullified efforts by the current regime of Armenia regarding the recognition of the Armenian Genocide.

The fifth. It is also noteworthy that a large part of the report refers to the decline of democracy in Turkey, persecution of political rivals, political prisoners and many other anti-democratic developments.

In other words, the European Union, when it needs to, sees problems in other states that are related to democratic setbacks that do not meet European standards.

In the case of Armenia, they keep cynically silent about all that, although the current ruler of Armenia differs little from Erdogan, whom Europeans regularly rank among autocrats, in terms of his handwriting and the intensity of repressions.

Trump’s “finished war” and Iran’s uncompromising attitude. What’s next for the South?

April 16, 2026


The Iran-US indirect talks that took place in Islamabad the other day were in the center of attention of the international community as a prelude to possible de-escalation, but the situation created after the meeting proves deep diplomatic stagnation. Despite Pakistan’s mediation efforts, the parties failed to overcome mutual distrust. According to the assessment of international experts, Islamabad tried to become a new platform for dialogue, but the background of regional conflicts and the existing differences in principle between Washington and Tehran turned the negotiations into simply recording positions, which led to a visible freezing of the process.

US President Donald Trump, referring to the regional developments in the last two days, once again made self-confident statements, seemingly covering up his unwillingness to further war with Iran. In a conversation with Fox Business journalist Maria Bartiromo, he stated that the war is over.

According to Trump, Iran is now in a state where full-scale war is no longer on the agenda due to weakness. He specifically stated:

“Iran is bankrupt… they are in no condition to go to war.” According to Trump, it is the tough American pressure that has neutralized the risk of a major conflict, creating a situation where the probability of war has practically been zeroed out, because Tehran simply “can’t go to war”.

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The Iranian side, after the meetings in Islamabad, maintains a cautious but tough rhetoric. The official representatives of Tehran stated that they sat down at the negotiation table only with the agenda of “national interests and lifting of sanctions”. According to the statements of the Iranian side, “The White House must abandon the language of maximum pressure and return to the field of reality if it expects stable diplomatic progress.” Iran has made it clear that despite optimistic statements from Washington, they are not going to make concessions regarding their sovereignty and defense programs, which creates a sense of stagnation in the negotiations.

At the moment, there is an obvious stagnation in the negotiation process, a diplomatic pause or “frozen state”, where neither side wants to take the first step in order not to disrupt their own strategic calculations.

Ultimately, the Islamabad talks showed that without political will and willingness to make mutual concessions, such meetings remain mere formalities. The international community is in a state of waiting, because this stagnation can be either a threshold for a new escalation, or a continuation of a long “cold” confrontation, where the negotiating table is simply a tool to gain time or check the opponent.

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Victor Nadein-Raevsky said that the American side does not want to continue the war, but in fact would like to go to a tougher level of economic and technological isolation of Iran. The success of this, in his opinion, will lead to further deepening of the influence of the “Turkish axis”, which is a challenge for Armenia. As for Iran, according to the analyst, for Iran, the current stage of confrontation with the USA is perceived as a victory of “strategic confrontation”.

“When Tehran feels that it is no longer losing or yielding to Washington, its behavior becomes more confident and aggressive. At this stage, Iran will try to deepen its regional autonomy. Convinced that American sanctions and military threats no longer have the previous destructive effect, Tehran will try to move on to building a regional security system “without the West”. This means a sharp increase in Iran’s role in the South Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East. Iran will try to become such a “key state” that it will be impossible not to take into account. Secondly, Iran will strengthen cooperation with Russia and China in the developing world order. This may lead to Iran becoming more intransigent regarding its nuclear and missile programs, considering that its balance of power is already sufficient to restrain the US and dictate its own interests,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

According to him, maintaining neutrality continues to be vital for Armenia. “Iran, I think, will more decisively defend the integrity of its northern borders as one of its last geopolitical strongholds. At the same time, Armenian diplomacy should be ready for demands from the Trump administration, which will fit into the US regional policy of “maximum pressure” and containment of Iran. Considering the fact that the Trump administration values ​​agreements with Yerevan and Baku, this threat should not be ruled out, because the US is strengthening its influence and advancing its political plans, and we know what place Iran has in those plans,” he said.