The last ten days in the Middle East were marked by the degradation of the fragile April ceasefire and a new, more dangerous phase of military escalation.

Closed-door talks between Washington and Tehran, which have included tough American demands for a freeze on uranium enrichment and stockpile depletion, have been essentially deadlocked for several months, with the sides unable to reach an agreement. In recent days, the diplomatic crisis has once again moved to the military stage. On June 4, clashes between the US Navy and Iran began in the Strait of Hormuz, which culminated on June 8, when an Iranian attack drone shot down a US Army AH-64 Apache attack helicopter off the coast of Oman.

In this regard, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated that Iran should combine military operations and diplomacy in order to turn it into political and economic achievements.

In response to the downing of the helicopter, US President Donald Trump ordered “self-defense strikes”, but Israel took tougher measures, striking Iran’s most important petrochemical complex in Mahshahr on June 9.

According to Axios leaks, Donald Trump has warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “be careful” not to end the ceasefire. However, on June 10, Trump confirmed in an interview with Fox News that he may continue to strike energy facilities because Iranian negotiators are delaying the process. Although Qatari mediators continue to work, mutual missile strikes in the Persian Gulf maintain a high risk of a full-scale resumption of war.

This great geopolitical earthquake is directly projected on the South Caucasus, where the discussions regarding Azerbaijan’s possible support to Israel have become active again. The American CNN recently made a sensational publication, according to which, during the war against Iran, Israel deployed secret troops, special military and intelligence units in Azerbaijan in several positions adjacent to the northern border of Iran, the closest of which is only about 100 kilometers from the Iranian city of Tabriz. Israeli forces, including special forces, military helicopters and Mossad personnel, carried out reconnaissance, drone operations from the territory of Azerbaijan, and planted eavesdropping devices in the northern settlements of Iran. One of the main operations carried out from the territory of Azerbaijan was the killing of Rahman Moghaddam, the head of the intelligence special operations unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on March 4.

Baku responded to this leak with a strong denial, calling the news “completely baseless” and asserting that it will not allow its territory to be used against third countries. Nevertheless, the deep strategic and energy ties between Baku and Tel Aviv remain a primary threat to Tehran. Abolfazl Zohrevand, a member of the Iranian Parliament, a member of the National Security Committee, stated that Baku does not know that it can be wiped off the face of the earth in 3-4 hours, and this is not an exaggeration. Zohrevand noted that most of the Israeli attacks on Iran were carried out from the territory of Azerbaijan.

“Now both Turkey and Israel have deployed their military forces in Nagorno Karabakh. The military airport in the north of Baku was given to them, and no one can be within a few kilometers of it. They constantly bring troops, equipment, and do works there. Of course, we know this, but the government is not responding. I mean, this is a war against Zionism. Aliyev also has the same profile that Ben Zayed has. if not worse, definitely not better than Ben Zayed. They are in agreement with the Zionists, and we must understand who we are dealing with. We knew that the Emirates is the second Israel, but until they attacked us, we did nothing against them. We knew Kuwait, we know Azerbaijan too,” said the Iranian deputy.

He clarified that Iran’s principle is based on moderation and rationality, but if they strike, Iran will respond in such a way that they will not come to their senses.

The consequences of this conflict for the South Caucasus can be catastrophic. If Tehran is finally convinced that Azerbaijan supports Israel, the infrastructures of Azerbaijan may also be targeted by Iranian attacks, which will affect Armenia as well. In addition, analysts note that the protracted war in Iran is drastically reducing the logistics potential of the region, jeopardizing international trade programs passing through Syunik and Western investments, including the US-Armenia TRIPP project.

Iranian analyst Khayal Muazzin 168.amin a conversation with , he said that any war has a way to expand and worsen, as well as a more optimistic way out.

According to him, Iran controls the situation, trying to maintain its negotiation positions in parallel.

According to the analyst’s assessment, no matter how difficult the situation is, Iran succeeds in it well, Iran shows strength and resistance to its opponents, thus encouraging them to soften their positions. Otherwise, according to his conviction, negotiations with Iran in the ultimatum language are not the best option.

Khayal Muazin also believes that such a war in the neighborhood of the region can have both indirect and direct consequences, taking into account the significant strengthening of the West and Israel in the region. “Besides, the previous strict divisions of the regions do not work today in some cases, we are also talking about the South Caucasus, which as a result of the geopolitical developments of the last years has significantly “approached” the Middle Eastern region, that is, the connectivity has significantly increased.

“Therefore, for the South Caucasus, there is an internal regional agenda in Yerevan-Baku relations, as well as an external component related to the relations between Russia, Iran, and the West. This is already a rather difficult environment, and I think it will continue. As for Azerbaijan, Iran has constantly warned Azerbaijan about the consequences, on the other hand, it is known to everyone that Iran pursues a cautious policy and is not in favor of escalation without a reason,” said Khayal Muazin.

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Nikol Pashinyan, referring to the possibility of war in a briefing with journalists after the Cabinet meeting, said:

“As long as we will consistently pursue and serve the peace agenda by all possible means, there will be no war, there will be peace.”

And Baku continues to remind that official Yerevan and Nikol Pashinyan’s government still have work to do for final peace, in particular, it is about changing the existing Constitution and pushing out the Declaration of Independence from it, because, according to Aliyev, it makes territorial demands.

At the same time, Aliyev’s assistant Hikmet Hajiyev He announced during his speech at the Trans-Caspian Forum.

«After the settlement of the conflict with Armenia, Azerbaijan switched to the concept of “middle power”.

Hajiyev continued that the concept of “Middle power” for them is not measured only by scale, economy and population, but it implies a network of partnership of countries.

“Azerbaijan is a country of the South Caucasus. At the same time, we belong to the family of Central Asia (in Turkish textbooks there will be significant changes in historical and geographical terms and, in particular, we are instructed to call “Central Asia” “Turkestan”) and the Caspian Sea region. Azerbaijan has, so to speak, identities related to Europe and the Middle East. All these values ​​do not contradict each other, but are combined,” Aliyev’s assistant emphasized.

Earlier, in May, the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev announced that Azerbaijan is perceived in the world as medium power.

This essentially means that Azerbaijan considers itself or is perceived as a country that has sufficient diplomatic weight, resources and independence to influence global or regional processes.

In other words, Azerbaijan currently believes that unresolved foreign political issues should be resolved through diplomacy, be active on international platforms, why not get involved in international coalitions? Let’s not forget here also about the “Organization of Turkic States” (TDC-TDT), within the framework of which, from time to time, conversations about creating a unified defense system are activated.

Can we assume that in the context of the unresolved problems of Armenia-Azerbaijan, the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem may exert international and foreign political pressures on our country, as well as economic, energy, transport pressures?

Of course, yes, and it’s very obvious.

If we take the purely diplomatic part, we have not once written that Baku has increased allocations in the field of diplomacy, has activated “legal and political” work, which it sometimes also places in the logic of international human rights, including in the context of the “Western Azerbaijan” political project.

In other words, everything is not so “innocent”, especially when Armenia does not even develop mechanisms to restrain or counteract Azerbaijan’s steps and “soft” pressures arising from the “middle power” concept, as it should, not what is served.

It should be noted that, according to various experts, in any case, military power is not neglected in the context of “middle power”, and a country adopting this concept must have sufficient capabilities to ensure stability in its own region based on deterrence tactics and defensive orientation.

168.amrecently had written that the Aliyev propaganda machine admitted that for Baku the issue of Karabakh’s security is no less important than the economic recovery of the region, because the main priority is ensuring the normal and safe life of people returning to the liberated territories.

“That’s why along with creating civil infrastructures, a modern security system is also being formed. And the next attempts to test the strength of the region or question the established realities, whoever it is, will be strictly stopped,” the Azerbaijani propaganda machine warned.

On the other hand, the creation of a “security system” in Artsakh and around it testifies to Aliyev’s fears that today’s realities may change in a rapidly changing world. This is global. And in the case of Armenia, as long as Armenia falls victim to Azeri demands, of course there will be no war, Pashinyan also promises this.

And here is a question: how much is Pashinyan’s concept of “real Armenia” local production equivalent to the “middle power” concept adopted by Baku based on international laws, which also implies a certain status quo? The answer is perhaps obvious. And now Nikol Pashinyan excitedly accepts the congratulations of the countries that have contributed to Azerbaijan’s victory in the 44-day war of 2020: Turkey, Pakistan, Baku and US President Trump, under whose presidency the 44-day war took place, are also happy with the victory of the CP, and Macron also has his contribution to the process of leaving Artsakh as part of Azerbaijan.

In other words, in fact, these are the countries that “gifted” Baku the status of “middle power”.

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One of the promises of the “revolutionary” government in 2018 was that the new government will henceforth exclude the sick acquaintance-friend-care approach in professional promotion, giving preference to professional personnel. But after a short time it turned out that this was also one of the propaganda tricks to deceive the people.

from Shirak State University (SSU) 168.amConcerned news has arrived that Rector Yervand Serobyan, being a favorite of the government, is promoting his relatives and friends at the university.

Let’s talk facts…

Thus, the storekeeper of the university, Surik Hovsepyan, is the rector’s deputy. Artashes Hovhannisyan, head of the “Human Resources Management, Document Circulation and Legal Assurance Department” of the university, is a friend of the rector. Artashes Hovhannisyan’s son, Arman Hovhannisyan, being a student of the current department, also works at the university. The rector’s other daughter, Shushan Martirosyan, made a sharp career jump after working as a rector’s clerk and other “minor” positions. He was recently appointed the deputy director of the “Educational Process Management Center” of the university, having no academic degree, teaching experience (his autobiography on the official website of the SSU, unlike the autobiographies of other employees of the center, is closed. – G.S.), but very quickly he was formulated as a claimant. is considered a possible candidate for rector or vice-rector in the near future.

What is interesting is that the salaries of 2 employees of the university were increased at the May 8 meeting of the Board of Trustees of USU. In addition, one employee is Shushan Martirosyan, the rector’s daughter-in-law, whose salary increased from 200,000 AMD for 1 rate to 250,000 AMD on the grounds that the deputy director is overloaded with work duties. it seems that the people working before Shushan Martirosyan were idle.

 

This discriminatory attitude has caused a lot of dissatisfaction in the State University, because during the years of Nikol Pashinyan’s rule, the salaries of professors and teaching assistants, and low-level administrative employees have not increased, although in fact their workload has greatly increased, and this is in the case when student fees have increased dramatically.

According to our information, at the end of the last academic year, the rector rewarded the main employees with 50 percent of the salary (taking into account the rector’s salary, which is high at the level of the Republic: AMD 700,000, he was the first to use it), and the so-called 13th salary was received in the university long ago, before Nikol Pashinyan came to power.

It should also be noted that before Nikol Pashinyan, university employees received bonuses on various holidays for many years.

As for the position of Levon Barseghyan, the chairman of the Board of Trustees of the University of Georgia, the employees of the university said that Levon Barseghyan has a very weak understanding of the management and problems of the university, he is busy with domestic and foreign political issues, and in this respect the positions of the rector are stronger.

It is surprising that for the chairman and members of the Board of Trustees, Shushan Martirosyan met the passport requirements for the position of deputy director of the “Educational Methodological Process Management Center” (if, of course, there is a passport for such a position. – G.S.).

In 2024, the expert report of the institutional accreditation of SSU also stated that the salary of the teaching staff is low, lower than in other marzes.

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The election of the National Assembly was already predetermined before the voting day, June 7. These elections are not legitimate, and their results are not credible. About this 168 TVof Revue he said on the air of the program International scholar Menua Soghomonyan, member of “HayaVote” uniontheevaluating the results of the National Assembly elections.

“The expectation was that the opposition will obviously win, but as a result of very large state intervention, the use of all resources of the state by the political authorities, creation of extremely unequal conditions, implementation of selective justice, etc., the victory of the opposition did not happen formally. However, it should also be noted that the authorities did not win,” said Menua Soghomonyan.

On June 7, the guest of “Review” as part of “HayaVote” carried out an observation mission in various regional polling stations and presented the open election violations committed by the authorities both on the voting day and during the pre-election period.

Menua Soghomonyan emphasizes that it is necessary to get out of the framework of stereotypes formed for decades about election fraud, that election fraud is only stuffing ballot boxes. According to him, the authorities are now using more modern and skillful technologies to falsify the elections and predict their outcome.

According to Menua Soghomonyan, the election battle between the ruling CP party and the opposition forces took place in extremely unequal conditions. According to Soghomonyan, the public sentiments and the voter’s decision were significantly affected by the full use of state and administrative resources by the main opposition forces, the political authorities, the implementation of electoral justice against the opposition, bribery in the form of various programs and pensions, foreign interference in the electoral process of Armenia and the intimidation of the public by the current head of the political power, Nikol Pashinyan, and the fear of war.

“Nikol Pashinyan announced that he was “closing” the issue of Artsakh with these elections. Most of the participants in the election actually said “no” to closing the Artsakh issue. Nikol Pashinyan could not secure the majority of voters in his favor, even through great interference, intimidation, cheating, bribery, etc. No, the elections are not legitimate, that is, these results that have been recorded cannot be legitimate. I would not say that what is happening now is less delegitimizing election violations than what happened tens of years ago. The election was already predetermined before the voting day. “If it were not for this terror, we would have had a change of power,” commented Menua Soghomonyan.

Referring to the criminal cases initiated against the representatives of the opposition forces, wiretapping, selective justice, Menua Soghomonyan emphasizes that during all this time, we did not hear that the Investigative Committee or the Anti-Corruption Committee had even once wiretapped any village head, community head or administrative and economic coordinators of schools working for KP.

“What is it, village heads and administrative-economic coordinators or community heads, we are talking about CP members, or community hall workers, utility heads, various civil servants, are they all widespread saints and law-abiding people?” I have seen with my own eyes how they bring teachers and employees of the municipality to the rally that I pass by, they hold their heads in shame. “How did it happen that no Investigative Committee did any such eavesdropping and did not record any such facts about the illegal actions of the government representatives,” Soghomonyan added.

Let us remind that according to the preliminary results of the National Assembly election, 1 million 477 thousand 736 voters participated in the June 7 voting. According to the preliminary results summarized by the Central Electoral Commission, CP received 49.8 percent of the total votes, “Strong Armenia” bloc – 23.281 percent, and “Armenia” bloc – 9.934 percent. As a result of the recounting of votes, the PAP can also overcome the 4 percent electoral threshold set for the parties.

Full interview in the video.

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“Pressing” in the program Satik Seyranyan the guest is Doctor of International Law from Paris-Panthéon-Assas University, lawyer, former Secretary General of the International Federation of Human Rights, French-Armenian Raffi-Philippe Kalfayan.

to remind 2026 In March, the International Monitor for Democracy in Armenia (IODA), an international, non-partisan organization, announced the launch of its first fact-finding mission to assess democratic conditions in the Republic of Armenia’s 2026 elections. ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7.

2026 on March 7-12, the delegation held its consultations in Armenia with actors representing a wide range of political and civil society.

The organization’s executive board members include Kenneth Roth, former executive director of Human Rights Watch, internationally renowned human rights lawyer Dr. Raffi-Philippe Kalfayan, Sarah Lee Whitson, Diana Kearney, William Burdon, Jose Aranaz, Mark Jones, and former Canadian Member of Parliament Brian May.

Recently, on June 5, the report of the International Observatory of Democracy in Armenia (IODA) was published.

The main points of the interview with Raffi-Philippe Kalfayan are below.

• The final report of the International Observatory for Democracy in Armenia (IODA) was published on June 5. We confirmed what we previously wrote: external influence on the National Assembly elections in Armenia from various sides, both from the West and from Russia. Moreover, they helped Nikol Pashinyan more. The West openly supported him, and the talk of the Putin-Pashinyan meeting helped Pashinyan even more.
• In the electoral process, the government misused administrative resources.

• Unfortunately, the judicial system in Armenia is not independent. This had a great impact during the elections. Criminal proceedings were initiated only against opposition figures, but when a supporter of the government, a representative of the government, did the same thing, no case was filed against them. This is also documented in our report: 

• We met with three state bodies: the Investigative Committee and the Anti-Corruption Committee and the Corruption Prevention Committee. Unfortunately, the ruling party, “Civil Pact” (CP), did not want to meet with us, and the Constitutional Court and the Human Rights Defender also avoided meeting with us.:

• CP’s goal was not just to win the elections, but to have a constitutional majority, and today’s precinct recount is very important in that sense. If the authorities can prevent PAP from entering the Parliament, they will get a 3/5 majority, but not a constitutional majority. This is what the fight is for. If the last case against Gagik Tsarukyan is from 2019, then why did they activate it now?

• According to the law of the Republic of Armenia, the immunity of a deputy candidate can be overcome only with the consent of the Central Electoral Commission. This did not happen in the case of Gagik Tsarukyan.

• Of course, fair elections were not held, but in the case of today’s realities, the West will accept its results. such an election process was unacceptable for our observation mission:

• In today’s Europe, there is nothing surprising anymore… It’s funny, but in the last French presidential elections, Macron was elected with 20% of the people’s votes. unfortunately, this is the system of “democracy” today. In the case of Nikol Pashinyan, in fact, he managed to convince a little more than 49% of the people that there will be peace and everything will be fine…

• Unfortunately, the opposition did not adopt the right tactics. First, small parties should not have participated in the elections, so that votes would not be wasted… The political process has failed, it has become a battle of egos. But under these conditions, even the opposition can obstruct the changes to the Constitution. Worst of all, the tensions within the country will continue while we face serious challenges. Society is divided within the country, the Diaspora is divided, and this is when we have to deal with the most serious security problems we face…

• Nikol Pashinyan wrote in his program that he will depose Garegin Vehapari, announced that Robert Kocharian should be imprisoned, Samvel Karapetyan, Gagik Tsarukyan will be imprisoned… This will lead to a very bad place.

• Azerbaijan will not give up its demands, the TRIPP program has become just a piece of paper, we are under Russian sanctions, the state has very large debts, and no one cares about this.…

• The 2 members of the observation mission of the Council of Europe did not even comment on the violations. they talked only about external influence from Russia.

By the way, the OSCE observers presented the preliminary report on the Armenian parliamentary elections, in which the observers noted a number of factors that, in their estimation, affected the equal conditions of the pre-election campaign. These include reports of external pressures, including trade restrictions and security threats, which are said to have influenced voter preferences. 

The report was prepared with the participation of the OSCE mission, including representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly, ODIHR and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). 

The report states that the pre-election campaign was extremely confrontational and was accompanied by accusations of bribery and other violations. These factors led to the initiation of a number of criminal cases against opposition candidates and activists, which, according to observers, affected their participation in the campaign. It also mentions pressure on public sector workers to participate in ruling party events, as well as the impact of recently introduced socio-economic measures, which have raised questions about equality of opportunity for election participants. 

The special coordinator of the OSCE short-term mission, Farah Karimi, stated that the concentration of criminal prosecutions against the representatives of the opposition strengthened the perception of the electoral process as electoral justice.

• It is more convenient for Russia, the European Union and the United States to have a leader like Nikol Pashinyan in Armenia, who is weak, not national, and it is easy to get their demands from him.:

• No one from the European Union has sent an invitation to Armenia to join the EU. However, the Armenian government openly declares that we should use both blocs: both the EU and the EAEU. But it is impossible, and in this sense one can understand the Russian president who tells the Armenian authorities that the decision must be made now. I am also sure that until Turkey becomes a member of the EU, Armenia will not have that opportunity. So, talks about entering the EU are empty, empty words:

• What will the apricot business change for Armenia? How big is the effect of that… Are we talking tens of millions of dollars? This is not serious. Or we say we will take the flower to Holland. what will the price of that flower be? Let’s not forget that we have no direct borders with the EU.

• Clearly, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio came to support Pashinyan. The agreement, which was initialed and then signed, is the third agreement between the Armenian and American parties (first in August, then in January). The signed agreement reminds again under what conditions the TRIPP project can be implemented, and none of them have been met so far, and the project is still up in the air. Iran does not participate in it, Russia does not, who is left: Azerbaijan and Turkey? 

• If TRIPP is to operate under American law, what other sovereignty are we talking about?

• The TRIPP agreement cannot be superior to the Constitution of Armenia, if it is not yet an international agreement, and it can become such only if the CP had a 2/3 constitutional majority, which it does not have. Therefore, TRIPP cannot be transformed into an international treaty. This was the reason why there were no smiles on the faces of Nikol Pashinyan and CP members on the election night: 

• The document signed during Rubio’s visit contains several very dangerous points for Armenia.

Details in the video.

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