By Geopolitical Monitor

By Turan Darishov

Key Takeaways

• Drones Transformed Regional Warfare — The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War marked the first major conflict where drones played a decisive role. Azerbaijan’s use of Turkish and Israeli UAVs demonstrated their effectiveness against conventional forces, setting a precedent for modern drone warfare.
• Azerbaijan Leads, Armenia Catches Up, Georgia Lags — Azerbaijan is the clear frontrunner with domestic production, dedicated Unmanned Systems Troops, and diversified procurement. Armenia is rapidly modernizing its drone capabilities after its 2020 defeat. Georgia is falling significantly behind despite limited local initiatives.
• Ongoing Military Modernization — All three South Caucasus states are investing more in unmanned systems (aerial and ground), reflecting lessons from Ukraine and the 2020 war. Azerbaijan and Armenia have substantially increased defense spending, while Georgia’s efforts remain modest.

Analysis

The military use of unmanned aerial vehicles dates back decades, with early reconnaissance drones already appearing during the Vietnam War and later conflicts. However, drones only began being used widely during the war in Afghanistan, where the United States relied heavily on UAVs for surveillance, reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, and targeted strikes against enemy targets. The conflict demonstrated the value of persistent aerial monitoring and precision remote strikes, gradually normalizing the use of unmanned systems in modern warfare. In Afghanistan, drones were also increasingly used for logistics support, infrastructure monitoring, and broader military coordination, further expanding their battlefield role.

The use of drones leaped even further during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which became the first major interstate conflict where unmanned systems played a central battlefield role. Azerbaijan’s extensive use of Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 drones, Israeli loitering munitions, and reconnaissance UAVs demonstrated how deadly drones can be against armored vehicles, artillery systems, and air defenses. This conflict sealed UAVs as a vital part of the modern battlefield rather than supplementary assets.

In the Ukraine war, both sides increasingly relied on drones for reconnaissance, artillery adjustment, long-range strikes, logistics disruption, and direct attacks against armored vehicles and personnel. The conflict eventually accelerated the rapid evolution of FPV drones, loitering munitions, naval drones, and AI-assisted systems. The scale of drone usage and the unprecedented damage inflicted by relatively cheap unmanned systems fundamentally changed global military discussions about the future of warfare itself.

Regional Insecurity and Unmanned Systems in the South Caucasus

The South Caucasus occupies a particularly important place in the evolution of modern drone warfare. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War became the first conflict where unmanned systems were systematically integrated to overwhelm and defeat a capable conventional force.

Although the region has not witnessed large-scale armed conflict since Azerbaijan’s 2023 operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the South Caucasus still retains a noticeable degree of geopolitical instability. More than 20% of Georgia’s territory remains occupied by Russia following the 2008 war, while relations between the two countries continue to be tense. Armenia’s relations with Russia have also become increasingly strained in recent years as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gradually expanded cooperation with the European Union and the United States. In addition, the Iran war introduced another layer of regional tension, with Azerbaijan briefly becoming involved after an alleged Iranian drone hit an Azerbaijani airport in Nakhchivan. Even though direct military confrontation remains unlikely in the near future, these security concerns continue to encourage South Caucasus states to modernize their armed forces and further explore the military potential of unmanned systems.

Azerbaijan: Drone Pioneer and Expanding Military Hegemon

Azerbaijan remains the most advanced and institutionally developed drone operator in the South Caucasus. The country continues actively expanding its unmanned warfare capabilities through both procurement and domestic development efforts. In recent years, Azerbaijan adopted several new drone systems into service, including domestically produced UAVs such as the “İti Qovan.” Azerbaijan’s leading defense producer “Azersilah” is also actively involved in UAV design and production efforts. Alongside local production initiatives, Azerbaijan continues operating a diverse fleet of Turkish and Israeli unmanned systems, including Bayraktar TB-2 and Akıncı drones, while also showing interest in acquiring additional advanced UAV platforms in the future. The country also established dedicated training and maintenance facilities for Akıncı drones. The military cooperation framework established with Türkiye under the 2021 Shusha Declaration further strengthened cooperation in defense technologies, training, and military-industrial development.

Azerbaijan also increasingly seeks to deepen cooperation with Turkish defense companies beyond simple procurement by exploring possibilities for joint drone production and broader defense-industrial collaboration with Baykar. In recent years, both sides signed cooperation agreements and memorandums regarding technology exchange, industrial cooperation, and potential localized production of Baykar systems in Azerbaijan, signaling Baku’s long-term interest in developing more sustainable domestic unmanned systems production.

One of the most important developments, which received little international attention, was the formal establishment of dedicated Unmanned Systems Troops within the Azerbaijani Armed Forces. The experience of Ukraine demonstrated that such an institutionalization of unmanned forces allows for better coordination and battlefield results. The commander of the newly established forces, Colonel Adam Huseynov, is known to have received high-level military decorations following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Although Azerbaijani authorities have not officially clarified the exact location of the Unmanned Systems Troops within the broader military structure, the sequence of units presented during the 2025 military parade suggests that the new forces are likely integrated into the Azerbaijani Air Force structure.

Azerbaijan’s expanding drone capabilities are also supported by steadily increasing military expenditure. The country’s defense budget grew from approximately $2.24 billion in 2020 to a planned $5.1 billion in 2026, reflecting Baku’s continued emphasis on military modernization and technological development.

Armenia: Adapting to the Lessons of Defeat

Armenia’s approach to drone warfare and unmanned systems modernization is heavily shaped by the lessons of its military defeat during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, where Azerbaijani drones inflicted devastating damage on Armenian units and exposed major weaknesses in Armenia’s armed force structure. Since then, Yerevan has accelerated military modernization efforts with a strong emphasis on unmanned systems. This shift was clearly visible during the 28 May 2026 military parade, where Armenia showcased a wide variety of modern UAVs and unmanned systems ranging from small reconnaissance drones to larger strike-capable platforms. Among the systems displayed were reconnaissance and attack drones such as the UL350 and Storm-320. Armenia also showcased Chinese-made CH-4 strike drones equipped with precision-guided munitions, Iranian AD-08 Majid short-range air defense systems, and domestically produced drones such as the AW5R and Krunk-25.

One of the most interesting developments was Armenia’s demonstration of ground-based robots known as “Gail” (“wolf”). Similar unmanned ground systems have increasingly attracted attention following their use in Ukraine, where they were employed for logistics, reconnaissance, casualty evacuation, and even direct combat support missions. However, effective use of such systems requires strong communications infrastructure, coordination capabilities, maintenance networks, and institutional adaptation — areas where Armenia still faces important challenges. Nevertheless, the decision to integrate UGVs into military modernization efforts demonstrates Armenia’s growing awareness of broader unmanned warfare trends extending beyond aerial drones alone.

Another major post-2020 development was the establishment of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Directorate within the Armenian Armed Forces in 2024. The creation of a specialized UAV command structure demonstrates that Armenia increasingly views unmanned warfare as a strategically crucial military sphere. Armenian officials have repeatedly referenced the lessons of Ukraine as highly important for Armenia’s future military development, while simultaneously continuing active drone-related cooperation with a variety of foreign partners.

Armenia’s military procurement strategy also underwent significant diversification following 2020. While Russia previously dominated Armenian arms imports, Yerevan increasingly expanded defense cooperation with countries such as India, France, China, Iran, and the United States, while still maintaining certain Russian military ties. The purchase of Chinese strike drones and American-made V-BAT reconnaissance UAV’s reflects Armenia’s broader attempt to avoid overdependence on a single supplier.

Armenia’s military modernization is also reflected in rapidly increasing defense expenditure. The country’s military budget increased from approximately $634 million in 2020 to around $1.44 billion in 2026, demonstrating the importance Yerevan places on rebuilding and modernizing its armed forces following the 2020 war.

Georgia: Falling Behind in Drone Warfare

Compared to Azerbaijan and Armenia, Georgia appears significantly less advanced in the integration of unmanned systems within its armed forces and is increasingly falling behind in this field. The country’s arguably only significant drone-related project is the cooperation between the Georgian defense company Delta and the Polish firm WB Technologies under the Delta WB initiative. The partnership focuses on local production of systems such as the FlyEye reconnaissance drone and the Warmate loitering munition. Georgian authorities announced plans for serial production of these systems in summer 2023, and the initiative initially attracted considerable attention as a potential step toward strengthening Georgia’s domestic military-industrial capabilities.

However, despite the ambitious plans, there have been no follow-up announcements regarding successful large-scale production or operational deployment. Unlike Azerbaijan and Armenia, Georgia also has not established dedicated unmanned systems forces or specialized drone branches within its military structure. The relatively modest scale of Georgia’s recent military parade raises further questions regarding the current pace of military modernization. During the 26 May 2026 Independence Day Parade, Georgia showcased very limited military equipment and did not publicly demonstrate drone systems, in contrast to Armenia and Azerbaijan where unmanned systems occupied a visible place in military presentations.

Recently, professor and political analyst Lasha Dzebisashvili sharply criticized the government for insufficient military funding, procurement problems, and the lack of meaningful development of domestic military production capabilities. Georgia’s prolonged political instability and polarization may also partially explain the weak pace of military reform and modernization in recent years. This situation is particularly important given Georgia’s geopolitical environment, where Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain occupied by Russia following the 2008 war, creating a long-term security challenge for the Georgian state.

Georgia’s military spending reflects a similarly cautious trajectory. While the defense budget increased from approximately $288 million in 2020 to around $662 million in 2026, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP declined during the same period. This differs noticeably from Armenia and Azerbaijan, both of which significantly expanded military spending and modernization efforts following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.

Looking Ahead

The South Caucasus remains one of the regions where the importance of unmanned systems is most visible. The experience of the Nagorno-Karabakh wars, followed by the lessons emerging from Ukraine, demonstrated to regional actors that drones are a crucial weapon in 21st century warfare. As a result, all three South Caucasus states show at least some level of interest in developing unmanned warfare capabilities, although the scale of implementation varies significantly.

Azerbaijan currently stands out as the clear regional leader in drone warfare integration due to its domestic production, diversified procurement, and creation of dedicated unmanned systems structures. Armenia, largely motivated by the lessons of defeat in 2020, is rapidly attempting to modernize and diversify its military capabilities with increased emphasis on drones. Georgia, despite possessing some domestic production initiatives, lags significantly in practical adaptation. Overall, it appears that drone adaptation will remain one of the most important military modernization trends in the South Caucasus in the coming years.

• This article was published by Geopolitical Monitor.com

The Armenian authorities have launched searches in over 70 addresses associated with Gagik Tsarukyan, a tycoon and leader of the opposition Prosperous Armenia party.

Prosperous Armenia spokesperson Iveta Tonoyan has told reporters that the raids took place early Monday morning.

‘We are talking about more than a dozen enterprises, including the Ararat Cement plant [and] the Yerevan brandy-Wine-Vodka plant’, Tonoyan said, according to independent media outlet Civilnet. RFE/RL has cited Tonoyan as saying that over 70 addresses were raided.

The outlet has also reported that law enforcement also began searching Tsarukyan’s Multi Wellness Centre in Yerevan in the morning, and had asked customers to leave the gym.

According to RFE/RL, the Investigative Committee said the raids were being conducted in relation to ‘more than a dozen criminal proceedings’, and that they would issue an official statement on the matter at a later time.

Tsarukyan’s lawyer, Emin Khachatryan, told RFE/RL that the authorities attempted to bar Tsarukyan from entering his house, but that the tycoon was allowed inside after some time.

Tonoyan has also issued a statement saying the police were ‘acting on the instructions of [Prime Minister] Nikol Pashinyan’.

In late June, the authorities asked the Central Election Commission (CEC) to lift Tsarukyan’s parliamentary immunity, less than a month after running in the 7 June parliamentary elections.

Prosperous Armenia failed to enter parliament, falling just shy of reaching the 4% threshold needed to secure seats.

A former Russian police surveillance officer who fled the country after participating in anti-Kremlin protests has described Armenia as his last refuge after fearing arrest by Russian authorities.

The 31-year-old, identified as Egor, told The iPaper that he resigned from his surveillance job with the St Petersburg police force and left Russia before authorities could detain him. He said he feared the police would “quickly find” him because of his involvement in protests against the Kremlin.

“I was afraid because [police] could quickly find me and I would have problems. It made me feel like I was a coward,” he said.

Egor first attempted to enter Georgia but was denied entry at the border. He then flew to Armenia, calling it his final opportunity to escape. He said he only felt safe after his plane landed at Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan, around 24 hours after leaving his job.

Four years after leaving Russia, Egor says the toughest part was not escaping the country but accepting that he might never be able to return home. “I took all the money I had… and left. I did not think about what will happen in Russia, but about what will happen in Ukraine,” he said.

Egor said his life has changed completely since leaving Russia. Before fleeing, he worked as a police surveillance officer, but today he is trying to build a new life in Armenia. Although he does not regret leaving Russia, he admits he misses having a country he can truly call home.

Egor mentioned that the political situation in Russia is unlikely to improve anytime soon, even after President Vladimir Putin dies. “My planning horizon is half a year to a year. Now, I’m in Armenia and I would like to become a citizen of the country,” he added.

Since 2022, Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, has become a safe place for tens of thousands of Russians who left their country to avoid the war in Ukraine.

According to the Armenian government, more than 60,000 Russians have moved to Armenia since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Many Russians have opened cafes, bars, restaurants and co-working spaces. 

One of the Russians who left for Yerevan when the war happened told the iPaper, “Many of my friends were jailed because they were anarchists. Some were arrested during protests; others afterwards. I know people who were tortured in prison because they were anarchists and were anti-Putin.”

Yaroslav, another Russian who left the country after opposing the government, said he felt a sense of freedom the moment he crossed the border. “When I left Russia… I remember standing [on the border] with the wind on my face. It felt like freedom. Finally, I could breathe,” he told the outlet.

“For the first time in a long while, I didn’t feel threatened by the police or by the state,” he added.